PRICE BEHAVIOR

Turmeric is an annual spice crop. It is also called as “Indian saffron”. It is valued for the combination of flavour and yellow colouring power while it was formerly employed also as a yellow dyestuff for textiles. It is an essential ingredient of many curry recipes and it is in this application usage is greatest on a global basis. Almost all Indian vegetable and meat dishes use turmeric either as separate spice or in the spice mixture.  It possesses anti-inflammatory actions, anticancer properties, antioxidant properties, anti-viral, anti-microbial, anti-parasitic activity and lowers cholesterol levels in kidney and liver tissue.

India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the world. Indian turmeric is considered to be the best in the world market because of its high curcumin content. India accounts for about 80 per cent of world turmeric production and 60 per cent of world exports. Other major producers are Pakistan, China, Haiti, Jamaica, Peru, Taiwan and Thailand. Asian countries consume much of their turmeric production. The total annual consumption of turmeric around the globe is approximately 38 Lakh bags to 40 Lakh bags (65 kg/bag).

Table1. Production of Turmeric in India

Table.1 World Cotton Scenario in 2005-06

(in million tonnes)

Cotton in India

In India, Cotton yarn accounts for more than 75% of the total fibre consumption in the spinning mills and more than 54% of the total fibre consumption in the textile sector. The main cotton producing States are Maharastra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Karnataka and  Tamil Nadu .

Table.2 Cotton Production in India

During the last five decades, the production of cotton has increased from 30 lakh bales (170 kgs /bale) in 1950-51 to 244.0 lakh bales during 2005-06. There has also been a substantial rise in area under cultivation from 58.91 lakh hectares in 1950-51 to 92.87 lakh hectares in 1998-99. The average yield also rose from 88 kgs in 1950-51 to 467 kgs in 2005-06. According to the market sources, the production may reach 244 lakh bales during the cotton year 2005-06 (Oct- Sept), which is higher by one lakh bale as compared to previous year.

According to the trade sources, due to timely rains and favorable agro-climatic conditions in all cotton growing States, area under cotton has increased to 88.73 lakh hectares in 2005-06. Cotton Advisory Board forecasted that the   production might reach about 248 lakh bales. This increased production in India did   not affect the price, due to the increased consumption and increased exports. The total production of cotton mainly comprises of medium staple and medium long staple varieties followed by long staple. The share of short staple cotton is about 7%. The share of medium and medium long staple varieties is more than 50% and the remaining are long and extra long staple varieties.

International polyester prices have been higher than cotton prices since 2004-05, which should continue to encourage cotton use in the mill sector. In addition, the impact of the elimination of quotas in the international trade of textiles and clothing from January 2005 is benefiting demand for cotton worldwide. Trade sources confirmed that the consumption of cotton has been increasing over years. As against a total consumption of 115.50 lakh bales during 1990-91(Mill and non-Mill), the consumption level including consumption in spinning units in the Small Scale Sector and non mill consumption touched a record maximum of 195 lakh bales in 2004-05 and this year (2005-06) cotton consumption increased to 215 lakh bales, nearly 20 lakh bales higher than last year consumption.

Table.3. Cotton Balance sheet –India

     (Qty in lakh bales)

                 (Source: Cotton Corporation of India)

Large carryover stocks and higher production, firm international prices ( domestic price is 4-5 cents less than international price) helped India to export cotton to other countries and emerged as a significant exporter of cotton in marketing year 2005/06 (August-July). Shankar 6 and J34 are the important export varieties. Cotton textile exports for 2005/06 (April-March) are estimated to increase by about 14% over the 2004/05 level of Rs15610 Crores.

 Cotton Scenario in Tamil Nadu

 In Tamil Nadu, cotton is one of the important cash crops and the area under cotton declined from 2.39 lakh hectares in 1990’s to 0.75 lakh hectares in 2002-03 whereas from  2003-04, the area  under cotton is expanding. The reasons for the expansion are contract farming, good yield and reasonable price received in the last year. The pace of expansion is slow because of land availability, higher cost of cultivation and the like.

                        Table.4 Area, Production and yield of Cotton in Tamil Nadu

                              (Source: Cotton Corporation of India)

Cotton is cultivated throughout the year in Tamil Nadu in four seasons namely winter irrigated, Summer – Irrigated, Rainfed and Rice follow. Among this, the area under winter irrigated is more (Masipattam).The major varieties cultivated in Tamil Nadu are MCU5, RCH and LRA-5166. Market sources confirmed that the area under Bunny and RCH cotton are in an increasing trend. Input agency sources confirmed that the area under Bt cotton is also in upward direction.

According to the market sources the demand for cotton in Tamil Nadu is 65 lakh bales but production is only 4to 5 lakh bales. The deficit is outsourced from Gujarat, Maharastra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and imports from USA and Egypt. Hosiery units of Tamil Nadu uniquely require Shankar-6 variety hence they specifically outsourced from Gujarat and Maharastra. Due to high freight charges (Rs 400-450/bale) procurement from Punjab is in a declining trend. The major markets for cotton are Tiruppur, Villupuram and Theni. Regulated Markets and Co-operative Marketing Societies act as facilitative organizations for cotton marketing in Tamil Nadu.

         The success of cotton price forecast by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in the last year has won the confidence of cotton farmers, traders and exporters. This confidence level led a large number of farmers to put forth queries with regard to cotton price movement during this year also especially with whether continue to hold stocks or immediate sell  of stocks to get maximum revenue. To answer these queries, The team led by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Co-ordinator, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the monthly data of market prices of the past twelve years that prevailed in Tiruppur Regulated market for the variety LRA-5166.The results of the analysis showed that cotton kapas prices will have very small increments for the next three months. The price in October 2006 is expected to be around Rs2050 per quintal of LRA5166 where as currently it is around Rs1950 per quintal .When the new crop comes from North India from October onwards, there will be slight decline in prices and from January 2007 onwards there will be an increasing trend. Currently the ruling price is Rs.1950 per quintal and by storing and selling during September, October 2006 farmers can get a price of Rs.2050 per quintal. Hence the farmers are advised to take a decision to sell immediately or store cotton taking into   account the cost of storage, interest on stocks and the like.

Tips to farmers for Adi Pattam Sowing (August 2006)

Farmers face many challenges, of both technical and economic nature.  One of the main problems they face is: What crop or combination of crops to plant? Market-oriented farmers, whose objective is profit maximization, are interested in knowing exactly which crop and specific variety would give them maximum returns in the market.  To determine this, they need to know current market prices as well future price at the time of harvest of different crops as well as the costs they will incur in their production. Besides these, farmers must also take into consideration their physical resources. In Tamil Nadu, Adi pattam (July-August) is the main season for sowing almost all crops. Generally this season coincides with the onset of South West monsoon. There is a saying in Tamil, `Adipattam thedi vidhai.' The Tamil month `Adi' is considered by natives as an ideal season to begin farming operations in both irrigated as well as rainfed regions. The crops grown during this season are cereals, oil seeds, vegetables. The success of price forecast by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in the last year has won the confidence of farmers, traders and exporters. This confidence level led a large number of farmers to put forth queries with regard to what crop or combination of crops to plant during adi pattam? To answer these queries the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University carried out study on prediction of prices at harvest period for a pool of crops which might be sown during Adipattam.

Cotton

In India cotton production may reach 250 lakh bales during current cotton year (2006-07(Oct-Sep)). Decline in area in the US and upward consumption trend in China favoured India as one of the leading exporters of cotton. Indian cotton price is 4-5 cents lesser than international cotton price per 218 kgs and hence countries like China, Bangladesh and the Middle East have inclination towards Indian cotton. But India will continue to import Extra Long Staple (ELS) and quality long staple cotton, with occasional imports of medium staple cotton when international prices are favorable. Our demand for ELS cotton is 12 lakh bales and supply is 6-7 lakh bales. So, the deficit of 5 lakh bales is imported from US (Pima and upland cotton) and Egypt.

 Maize

In Tamil Nadu, maize is an important millet under the category of other millets, generally cultivated under rainfed conditions and accounting for 71.2 percent (1, 60,159 ha) of the total area under other millets. It is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode, Virudhunagar, Villupuram, Theni, Tiruchirapalli and Thirunelveli districts. 

SMALL ONION PRICES: TO REMAIN AS SUCH (September 2006)

Onion, a pungent edible commodity is one of the oldest cultivated vegetables. It is considered as a food of exceptional value for flavouring and seasoning. Onion is now cultivated in most parts of the world; China ranks first in world onion production followed by India, U.S.A, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Myanmar. China occupies 28 per cent of world area and 32 per cent of the production, India ranks second in world area and production, occupies 17 per cent area and 10 per cent production followed by USA, Turkey, Pakistan and Russia. The productivity of onion is highest in Korean Republic (60.33 tonnes/ha), followed by Austria, Japan, USA, Chile and India (13.65 tonnes/ha).

In India, the area and production of onion were in increasing trend. Among the States, the area and production of onion is the highest in Maharastra and it accounts for 28 per cent of the country’s production followed by Gujarat (16%), Orissa (8.21%), Uttar Pradesh (9.5%), Karnataka (5%), Rajasthan (6%), Madhya Pradesh (5%), Bihar (4.49%), Tamil Nadu (3.74%), Andhra Pradesh (3.32%) and Haryana (4.4%). The productivity of onion is also the maximum in Maharashtra (20.62 tonnes/ha) followed by Gujarat and Haryana. Whereas Tamil Nadu accounted 5 per cent of country’s onion area and more than 70 per cent of this is occupied by small onion. According to trade sources, cultivation of bellary onion is slowly picking up in our State but still depends on Northern States for its requirements.

Perambalur district in Tamil Nadu occupies 24 per cent of the area under onion cultivation. The other districts cultivating onion are Trichy, Dindigul, Namakkal, Coimbatore, Erode, Virudhu Nagar, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Salem. Among these districts Perambalur, Trichy and Dindigul contribute more than 50 per cent of the onion area and production. 

Bellary onion (Allium cepa var.cepa) and multiplier onion (Allium cepa var. aggregatum) are the two major onion groups cultivated in India. The small onion or sambar onion is predominantly grown in Tamil Nadu. CO1, CO2, CO3, CO4, CO.On.5, MDU 5, and Bangalore rose are important multiplier onion varieties raised by farmers of Tamil Nadu. In India onion is produced in three major seasons viz., Kharif, late Kharif and Rabi. Kharif season starts at June and harvesting is done in August – September. Late Kharif crop is sown during September and harvested during the month of November. The third season is Rabi season, which starts in the month of December, and the crop is harvested in the month of February.

Onion export is one of the factors that decide the price of onion and it also increased over the years in India.  In 1997-98, onion was brought under Essential Commodity Act and the quota system of export was introduced. Onion from India is exported mainly to neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, Kuwait, Indonesia, Mauritius, Seychelles, UAE, Singapore, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai, and Bangladesh. Substantial change in composition of onion and its products has taken place over the years, with the share of onions fresh in total onion exports falling to 83 per cent in 2002 from a high of 99 per cent in 1980. This might be due to the unexpected growth in export of processed products. The processed products provide good scope for export in future.

The retail price of bellary onion in the month of December, 2005 was around Rs.15 per Kg. but during April, 2006 it had fallen to Rs.7 per kg. Within three months, the volatile movement of bellary onion price has created panic among the small onion farmers of Tamil Nadu and they want to know whether the same trend will prevail in small onion prices too. So to clarify their suspicions, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University carried out this study.

The main seasons for small onion are Vaigasi and Adi pattam. In Coimbatore district, small onion is cultivated mainly in Udumalpet and Palladam region. In Udumalpet region, usually the harvesting of small onion starts at the 1^st week of July and extends up to the end of August. According to trade sources, this year the area under small onion has increased about 20 per cent and input sources confirmed that more than 10,000 ha was covered in late kharif season alone during this year and sowing will be continued till the end of this month. According to the input sources, more than 30 per cent increase is seen in adoption of hybrid onion (CO.On.5) this year. Shorter duration, more yield and non seasonality characteristics of Hybrid onion vow the onion farmers to go for this. Both increased area under onion and yield gain due to the adoption of hybrid onion over traditional variety has impact on onion price towards downward side. Traders are of the opinion that the storage loss for local onion was 20- 30 per cent whereas 40 per cent for hybrid crop. Local onion scales are tightly packed around the neck region and more number of scales are present when compared to hybrid onion. To minimize the risk against storage loss of hybrid onion, farmers resort to immediate sale of the crop. This action also influences on the price towards downward side.

Dr.N.Raveendaran, Dr.S.Selvam, Mrs.D.Murugananthi and Ms.T.Meena, Scientists of DEMIC had analyzed and forecasted the scenario of onion prices based on the price data of Dindigul market. Dindigul is one of the major onion producing and marketing centers in India. This market reflects the overall prices of small onion in Tamil Nadu. According to the market survey, during the peak arrival season, the arrivals of small onion will be nearly 2500 bags (1 bag = 80 kg.) per day in Dindigul market.

Traders are also sourcing small onion from other States like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Orissa. The transport cost from Mysore was around Rs.2 per Kg. The peak arrivals from Karnataka and local coincide with  March, July, August and September months, hence in these months the price of small onion will be less when compared to other months. During 2005, the average wholesale price of onion in Dindigul market was Rs.802 and Rs.806 per quintal in July and August respectively. This year August month the price is around Rs.950 per quintal.

Based on the analysis of wholesale price of Dindigul market, the price of small onion in September month will be around Rs.820 to 850 per quintal. The same price will continue in October and November also. Hence storing onion during this period is not profitable. If there is any rainfall affecting onion production, then the prices are likely to increase during the above period. At the same time the onion farmers are advised to reduce the cost of cultivation and adoption of modern method of storage to get maximum profit. The farmers can get Re. 1 higher in Ulavazhar Santhai than in local markets. So the farmers are requested to sell their produce through Ulavazhar Santhai to get better prices.

Groundnut Prices to remain Stable (September 2006)

     Groundnut is the major oilseed and single largest source of edible oils in India. Over the years global production of groundnut seed and oil oscillates between 32 to 34 million tonnes and 4 to 5.5 million tonnes respectively. India occupied a distinct position in area (5.9 million hectares) and production (6.7 million tonnes) of groundnut crop in the world. Although India is the world’s largest producer of groundnuts, it accounts for a small part of international trade since most of its production is consumed domestically as groundnut oil.  Only a minimum amount of Hand Picked Selection (HPS) groundnuts are exported.

     Gujarat (4.25 million tonnes) stands first in production followed by Andhra Pradesh (1.5 million tonnes), Tamil Nadu (1.2 million tonnes), Karnataka (0.5 million tonnes) and Maharastra (0.5 million tonnes) which totally contribute about 78 per cent of the total groundnut production. Tamil Nadu covers an area of about eight lakh hectares and contributes to about 16 per cent of the groundnut production in India. Production is highly dependent on rainfall distribution and exhibits huge fluctuation over years. Around 70 per cent of the area is sown as rainfed crop and the remaining 30 per cent under irrigated conditions. According to the trade sources, the area under groundnut is decreasing not only in Tamil Nadu but also in other parts of India. Recent floods in Gujarat and Maharastra had led to damage of soybean and groundnut crops. The groundnut yield in Tamil Nadu (1784 kg of pods /ha.) is higher than that of the world average (1336 kg/ha) and it ranks first in India. Major groundnut production centres in Tamil Nadu are Cuddalore, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Kancheepuram and Tiruvallur districts and parts of Ariyalur district.

    Nowadays, palm oil and soyabean oil act as a close substitute for groundnut oil. Increased import of soya oil and palm oil from Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil in recent years has impact on domestic prices of groundnut. This leads to dilemma among the groundnut farmers whether to hold the stocks or to release it immediately to get maximum profit. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has made an analysis on groundnut prices in Tamil Nadu, based on the price data from Villupuram because it is an important groundnut market in Tamil Nadu.

   The market survey revealed that the reduction under groundnut area could push the price upward when compared to last year. The trade sources confirmed that NAFED’s mustard stock of 28 lakh tonnes play a major role in offsetting price rise due to the reduction in the area of oil seeds as well as crop damages by the recent flood. Solvent Extractors Association of India Reports confirmed that eight per cent decline in edible oil imports, by this year compensated by cotton seed oil and rice bran oil. Hence there is a balancing effect in the prices of groundnut oil. 

   The econometric analysis of groundnut prices undertaken by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Dr.S.Selvam and Mrs. S.Anita, Scientists of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University and their market survey confirm that the prices for groundnut pods will revolve around Rs.2300 per quintal during September 2006. It may increase by Rs.25 per quintal of pods in October due to festivals and decrease again in November. The same trend will be there for groundnut kernels. Hence the farmers are requested to release their stocks immediately to get better net prices.

Price Forecast for Karthigaipattam (October-March) (November 2006)

In Tamil Nadu more than 50 per cent of the land is under rainfed cultivation and Karthigai pattam is one of the important cropping seasons of rainfed cultivation in the state. Normally Tamil Nadu receives high rainfall in North East monsoon than South West monsoon. The rainfall followed by winter season is suitable for crops like Bengal gram, Sunflower, Coriander and Cumbu. The price behavior for Karthigai pattam crops were analysed by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University to facilitate decision making on crop planting for this season.

Bengal gram 
Bengal gram is a very important pulse crop, used as an edible seed and for making flour. The world’s total production of bengal gram is around 8.5 million tonnes annually and is grown over 10 million hectares. Generally the two types, Desi and Kabuli of Bengal gram contribute 80% and 20% respectively to the total production. India is the largest producer of this pulse contributing around 70% of the world’s total production. Madhya Pradesh produces the major share of around 40% in the Indian production of about 6 million tonnes followed by Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. India also exports some of its bengal gram produce to USA, UK, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Sri Lanka and Malaysia. Bengal gram is sown in the months of September to November in India. In Tamil Nadu, it is cultivated in about 6400 hectares with the production of nearly 4000 tonnes and it is mainly cultivated in Coimbatore district with an area of about 4146 hectares followed by Dharmapuri district. Udumalpet market is one of the main markets for Bengal gram and price data for last three years were collected and analyzed. Current price of Bengal gram is Rs.3200 per quintal (Udumalpet market). The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) analysis confirmed that Bengal gram price will be around Rs.2800 per quintal during February to July 2007. Last year price during harvest was around Rs.2300 per quintal. 

Coriander
Coriander is one of the minor seed spices which forms the base of most Indian curries. Both its seeds and leaves are used in dishes. The major producers of Indian Coriander are Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh. The main importers are USA, UK, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Middle East. Besides Coriander seeds, India also exports its powders and essential oil. In Tamil Nadu, the area under Coriander was 19,350 hectares with the production of 8,391 tonnes (2004-05) and Cuddalore district ranks first in area (3,430 ha.) followed by Virdunagar. The prevailing price of Coriander in Tiruppur market is around Rs2700 per quintal. The DEMIC analysis revealed that the price of Coriander during harvest i.e. in February, March 2007 will be around Rs.2250 per quintal. From May to November 2007 the price will have an increasing trend but with minimum rate of increase. 

Sunflower

Sunflower is the oil of preference among the consumers world over comparing other edible oils due to its health appeal. Sunflower oil is the largest selling oil in the branded oil segment (about 45 %). Sunflower is also a crop of choice for farmers due to its wider adaptability, high yield potential, shorter duration and profitability. Currently sunflower seed and sunflower oil production of 22-26 and 7.5- 9.5 million tonnes account for around 8% and 9% of the world’s edible oilseed and oil production respectively. The leading commercial producers of sunflower seeds include the Russian Federation (3-6 million tons), Ukraine (2.5-5 million tons), Argentina (3-4 million tons), European Union (2.5-3.5 million tons), USA (1-2 million tons) and China (1.5-2 million tons). Indian sunflower seed production ranges between 10-15 lakh tons. The major producers in India are Karnataka (35%), Andhra Pradesh (30%), Maharashtra (15%), Punjab (4%) and Haryana (4%). According to the market sources, 70% of the crop is produced in Rabi (November – March) season, and remaining 30% in kharif (June – September). In Tamil Nadu, Trichy district had an area of about 3.38 thousand hectares followed by Erode, Villupuram, Karur and Cuddalore. The total area and production during 2004-2005 were 0.18 lakh ha and 0.19 lakh tones respectively. The major market centres of the state are Vellakovil, Moolanur and Kodumudi. For the analysis the price of sunflower seed for the past five years prevailed in the Vellakovil market was taken as it is the major centre for Trichy, Karur, Erode, Salem, Dindigul and Theni districts. In these areas the crop is raised in two seasons viz., Karthigai pattam (October-November) and Chitrai pattam (April-May). The trade sources revealed that the prominent peak seasons are March, May, June and August during which the market witnesses an arrival of about 50,000 bags per day (50 kg per bag) of sunflower seeds. The trader’s survey confirmed that the traders out source the materials from Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during off season to meet the demand of oil mills. The market sources revealed that this year rainfall during the flowering season adversely affected the crop in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. As a result there was a short supply or mismatch in the supply and demand which pushed up the price this year. DEMIC collected the price data from the Vellakoil market and analysed the price and concludes that the price of sunflower seed during December 2006 to March 2007 will be in the range of Rs.14 to Rs.16 per kg of the seed. The current prevailing price is Rs.20 per kg. The last year price at harvesting time (December, 2005 to March, 2006) was Rs.13 – 15 per kg.

Cumbu

Bajra is considered as bread and butter of the rural people, particularly in dry land regions and it is an important crop in our country. In India, the crop is grown over 12 million hectares and accounts for 11 per cent of the total cereal production in India. During summer it is grown in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Punjab and Gujarat as an irrigated crop. 
In Tamil Nadu it is grown in an area of about 98000 hectares with a production of 1.24 lakh tonnes and Tuticorin district has the highest area of 20,965 hectares followed by Villupuram district. The DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price will be higher during the month of February to May and also during the month of August and September. The time series analysis confirmed that the price of cumbu will be around Rs.580 to Rs.600 from January to March, 2007. 

Crops Forecasted price DEMIC advice

Based on the soil conditions , consumption needs and rainfall pattern the farmers are recommended to cultivate the following crops in their region.

Crops	Forecasted price	DEMIC advice
Bengal gram	The price of Bengal gram will be around Rs.2800 per quintal during February to July 2007.	Ruling price - Rs.3200 per quintal (Udumalpet market). Last year price during harvest was around Rs.2300 per quintal.
Coriander	Price of Coriander during harvest i.e., in February, March 2007 will be around Rs.2250 per quintal. From May to November 2007 the price will show an increasing trend but with minimum rate of increase.	Ruling price - Rs.2700 per quintal (Tiruppur market). Last year price during harvest Rs.2313 per quintal.
Sunflower	Price of Sunflower seed during December 2006 to March 2007 will be in the range of Rs.14 to Rs.16 per kg of the seed.	Farmers can take up their sowing decision based on this price. The current prevailing price is Rs.20 per kg. The last year price at harvesting time (December, 2005 to March, 2006) was Rs.13 – 15 per kg.
Cumbu	The price of Cumbu will be around Rs.580 to Rs.600 per quintal from January, 2006 to March, 2007.	The price will be higher during the month of February to May and also during the month of August and September. Ruling price -Rs.6.75 per kg (Tiruppur market). Last year harvest price (January, 2006) – Rs.6.10 per kg.

EXPORT POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES FROM  
TAMIL NADU (December 2006)

A large number agricultural and non agricultural commodities are exported from India to several countries. India’s share of world trade which was 0.73 percent in 1990s had increased to 1 percent in 2005-06. Despite fears of negative impact in Indian trade due to the functioning of World Trade Organization, the value of agricultural commodities being exported is continuously increasing. Agricultural exports from India which stood at Rs.20,344 crores in 1995-96 increased to Rs.35,963 crores in 2004-05 and it is expected to cross Rs.50,000 crores in 2005-06.

Basmathi and non basmathi rice, cashew nut, spices and condiments, tea, fruits, vegetables, cotton lint, groundnut and gingelly are some of the major agricultural commodities being exported from India. All these commodities are exported from Tamil Nadu also. An analysis was made by Dr. N. Raveendaran, Professor of Agrl. and Rural management and Dr.M. Jawaharlal Professor of Horticulture on the scope of exporting different agricultural commodities to three nearby countries, viz., Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. The price trends of major agricultural commodities in these countries, their size, shape and taste, the taste and preferences of consumers especially of Indian / Tamil origin living there were taken into account for analysis besides the tax structure, transportation cost, etc., for making proper recommendation for export of Agricultural Commodities to the countries concerned.

Based on the analysis the following commodities are recommended for export.

Agrl. Commodities having more scope for export to Malaysia

1. Ponni rice, 2. Idli rice, 3. Red gram, 4. Blackgram and 5. Green gram, 6. Vegetables like carrot, peas, brocoli, small and big onion, radish and bhendi, 7. Fruits like pomegranut, sapota, grapes, mango and mandrins, red fleshed guava, red banana and 8. Masala powders.

Agrl. Commodities having more scope for export to Thailand

1. Ponni rice, 2. Idli rice, 3. Red gram, 4. Green gram, 5. Blackgram, 6. Vegetables like bitter gourd, moringa, small onion, small sized brinjals, cluster beans, yam and bhendi and curry leaf, 7. Fruits like mango and sapota.

Agrl. Commodities with more scope for export to Singapore

1. Ponni rice, 2. Raw rice, 3. Idli rice, 4. Pulses including blackgram, green gram, red gram and other pulses 5. Vegetables like moringa, small size brinjal, bhendi, lab-lab, small potato, small and big onion, yam and coccinia and curry leaf 6. Grapes, 7. Tamarind, 8. Red chilles, 9. Betel leaf, 10. Flowers like crossendra, jasmine (of all varieties), tube rose, nerium, thulasi and origanum, 11. Ghee, 12. All edible oils, 13. Honey, 14. Dried fruits and vegetables, 15. Papads, 16. Fried dhals, 17. Toffees made from groundnut and gingelly, 18. Peanut, 19. Popped rice and 20 all grocery items.

The importers in the above countries reported that the samples sent for export is very good while actual exports, many times, did not confirm to the standards of the sample. They also reported that the first two or three consignments are upto the mark and thereafter the quality standards are diluted by the exporters from Tamil Nadu. They suggested that the traders from Tamil Nadu should continue to export irrespective of the domestic prices prevailing so as to build confidence among the importers.

For further details the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agrl. & Rural Development Studies may be contacted in the website tnagmark.tn.nic.in with the e-mail of tnaudemic@gmail.com and through phone 2431405 (0422).

Price prospects of crop commodities to be harvested in Thai (January 2007)

Farmers are expecting good yields from karthigai pattam sown crops which are to be harvested soon in Thai - Masi months (Jan-Feb). The major crops for harvest are chillies, gingelly, maize and turmeric. Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the price prospects of gingelly and chillies based on Sivagiri and Virudhunagar markets respectively to guide farmers in taking better marketing decisions .

Gingelly

In Tamil Nadu the area under gingelly is around 72,000 ha. Erode, Thanjavur, Villupuram, Karur, Cuddalore and Thoothukudi districts accounted for 61% of the total area under this crop in the state during 2004-05. Irrigated system of gingelly is important since production and productivity is high when compared to rainfed system. But the area of gingelly crop in rainfed situation (62 % percent of the total gingelly area) is relatively higher than irrigated system (38 % percent). In Erode, Villupuram, Coimbatore, Trichy, Karur, Perambalur and Pudukottai districts, rainfed gingelly crop sowing was taken up during October, November and harvests had already begun. Arrivals started flowing to markets from January.

Sivagiri Regulated market is the major market for gingelly in Tamil Nadu. The price of gingelly over the years shows upward trend normally after April and reaches its maximum between August and October. In 2006 during January – April months the price of sesame seed was Rs.25 to Rs. 26 per kg. The future arrivals from irrigated crop are expected to be good. The price analysis of Sivagiri market leads to the conclusion that, price of sesame during February – April, 2007 will be pegging around Rs.17- 20 per kg and then move in the upward direction to a tune of Rs.24 to 28 per kg. 

For storing 100 kg bag of sesame for a period of six months, a maintenance cost including space costs of Rs.24 is required. And an oil content loss of 1-2 % is encountered after six months. There will be price gain of Rs. 4 to Rs.6 per kg by selling in June, July and August. Hence the farmers are advised to take this factor into account while arriving at the marketing decision of gingelly. If possible they can store the produce till June, July 2007 and take advantage of the price rise amidst storage cost and quality loss.

Chillies 

The total area of chillies in Tamil Nadu was around 65 thousand hectares during 2005-2006. Ramnad, Thoothukudi, Sivagangai and Virudhunagar districts are the major tracts of chillies in Tamil Nadu. The wet season crop (mid August to October) comes to harvest from December. The peak arrivals are reported in February to March. The market remains active till May. This year due to delayed monsoon the arrivals are expected from the end of January. Ramanad, Virudhunagar, Sattur, Sankaran Kovil, Rajapalayam, Paramakudi and Dindugul are the major chillies trading centers of Tamil Nadu. Virudhunagar, Sattur, Sankaran Kovil and in and around areas are growing Sannam chilli. Virudhunagar market is the market centre for Sannam chillies. The peak arrivals of Sannam in the market are during February – April. During peak season the daily arrivals will be in the range of 1000 – 2000 bags and during lean season the arrivals will be in the range of 300-500 bags. 

The team led by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Co-ordinator, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the monthly price data of Virudhunagar market against the stocking of chillies by the traders in anticipation of price rise due to the export prospects. Price analysis of Virudhunagar market from 1997 to 2006 showed that after 2000 the chillies price had started declining continuously in all major markets up to 2005. Excess supply is one of the major reasons for downward trend in chilli prices. As a result of very low price, the area under chillies had gone down in 2005-06. The reduction in the area lead chilli prices to reach an all time high of Rs.71 in September 2006. High price realized last year (2006) has attracted many farmers to chilli crop thereby pushing up the area under chilli this year. The area increase had impact on the price to downward side. Market reports confirmed that more than 14 lakh bags of old stocks are in cold storage.

The results showed that chilli prices might range between Rs.40-45 / kg for next three months. Hence the farmers are advised to sell the harvested red chillies immediately. On the other hand they can store chillies under cold storage situations for nearly six months during which time the export activities will pickup and there is a likelihood of increase in prices to the extent of Rs. 50-52 / Kg.

TURMERIC PRICES: HEADING TOWARDS TROUGH  (February 2007)

Turmeric is an important commercial crop grown in India and it is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the world. It accounts for 80 per cent of the world output. The important Turmeric growing States in India are, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Maharastra, Assam, Kerala, Karnataka and West Bengal. Andhra Pradesh occupies 40 per cent of total turmeric area followed by Orissa and Tamil Nadu occupying 17 percent and 13 per cent of total turmeric area respectively.
Erode market is one of the biggest turmeric markets in India as well as in Tamil Nadu. This year turmeric price movement shows a downward trend in price and the price comparison of turmeric also shows that the prices were Rs.2728, Rs.2549 and Rs. 2237 per quintal respectively during the month of January 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. This variation in price created havoc among the farmers, so that farmers put forth lot of queries to DEMIC to know whether to continue to hold stocks or immediately sell their produce. 
To answer these queries, the team led by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Co-ordinator of the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University carried out this study. 
According to market sources, this year farmers released old stocks in bulk, because of the fear of further fall in price and new arrivals are also flooding the market. The DEMIC price analysis confirmed that this year shows trough in Five year price cycle of turmeric prices. The forecasting of price with 22 years data collected from the Erode Regulated Market shows that the price of turmeric in next three months will be Rs.1700 to 2050 per quintal. 
The price decline is expected to continue and hence farmers are requested to reduce the area under turmeric in forthcoming season so that the declining trend could be arrested to some extent.


Comparison of turmeric prices during January month

Sl.No	Year	January price (Rs/qtl)
1	2005	2728
2	2006	2549
3	2007	2237

Tomato prices to Increase by Two months (April 2007)

Tomato is one of the most sensitive crops in that the price of the produce in the markets fluctuates erratically year by year. It is one of the most important basic vegetables. Since, being a highly perishable commodity it is extremely susceptible to price variations in the market implying that the produce should be immediately sold and cleared from the market without any delay. At the world level China ranks first with an area of 14.5 lakh hectares and 31 million tonnes of production per annum. Though India occupies second position in the world with respect to area of tomato, it occupies only fifth place in terms of production. World trade of tomato accounts to around 15 million tonnes. The leading exporters are Italy, Greece, Turkey, Netherlands and Mexico. The United States was the leading importer of fresh tomatoes. Other notable importers include Russia, France, Germany and Canada.

             In India nearly, 7.1 million tonnes of tomato is produced annually from an area of 5.4 lakh hectares. Tomato occupies second position amongst the vegetable crops in terms of production. On an average about 10,800 tonnes of tomatoes are exported annually from India. The major importers of Indian tomatoes are Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and UAE. In India, Andhra Pradesh is the largest producer of tomato with a production of around 25 lakh tonnes. The other main tomato growing states are Maharashtra, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam. The main varieties of tomato grown in the country are Pusa Ruby, Pusa Early Dwarf, Arka Abha, Arka Alok, Pant Bahar, Pusa hybrid-1, Pusa hybrid-2, MTH-6, Arka Vardan etc.     

            Tamil Nadu occupies seventh position in production of tomato among the states. Tomato occupies around 0.25 lakh hectares in the state with an average yield of 12,500 kg per hectare and an annual production of around 3 lakh tonnes. The major production districts are Dharmapuri, Coimbatore, Salem, Krishnagiri, Theni, Dindigul and Vellore. Tomato is taken up in two seasons, viz., May - June and November - December.

            Coimbatore is the second largest district in tomato acreage and production. Besides local production, interstate movement of tomatoes from Karnataka to Kerala through Coimbatore impacts largely on the local market supply. Hence for this study Coimbatore market was purposively selected which also truly reflects other markets of Tamil Nadu. There was a wide variation in the price of tomatoes over the months between March, 2006 and February, 2007. i.e., Coefficient of Variation in tomato price in R.S.Puram, Uzhavar Santhai was 23.06 %. This variation created fear among the tomato growers in Coimbatore and other districts whether their tomatoes will fetch better price in another three months or not. Hence a study on tomato prices has been taken up by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore.

            According to trade sources, the major markets for tomato in Coimbatore district are Saibaba Kovil market, Kinnathakadavu, Nachipalayam and Velandhavalam market. The produce flows in these markets all through the year from local areas during August to January and from the neighboring state namely Karnataka during February to July. In Coimbatore district tomato is cultivated in Siruvani, Alandurai, Karamadai, Mettupalayam, Kinnathukadavu, Pollachi, Udumalaipettai, Nachipalayam, Arisipalayam, Thirumalayampalayam, Chettipalayam and Velandavalam areas. The market sources confirmed that from February onwards, arrivals reached nearly 600 tonnes per day from other places namely Hosur, Meicherry, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Mysore and Bangalore.

            Traders opined that, even though tomato production is throughout the year in neighboring states, Coimbatore traders do not outsource tomatoes from Karnataka state during August to December because of its less competitiveness with local supply. But during off season (March - June) due to limited supply, tomato traders outsourced tomatoes from neighboring states.

            Market intelligence sources confirmed that, Kerala traders / wholesalers directly procure tomatoes from Mysore, Bangalore, Hosur and Dharmapuri markets during (August - December) seasons and only 15 – 20 % of the tomatoes arriving in Coimbatore markets are packed in wooden crates grade wise (size, appearance and ripeness) as specified by traders and moved on to Kerala markets.

            The market survey results revealed that in Coimbatore markets hybrid tomatoes are traded more than 65 % of the total tomatoes transacted. Hybrid tomatoes are preferred for its more availability, longer shelf life, comparatively lower price and less sourness than country tomatoes. Consumers prefer country tomatoes for its sourness and taste.

            The last five year daily price data was collected from R.S.Puram, Uzhavar Santhai and analyzed by the team led by Professor.N. Raveendaran. For the past five years, during May, June the supply was very low and the prices had gone up to Rs.16 per kg. Similarly for the year, 2006 also the price of tomato increased drastically to Rs 15 per kg in May from Rs 5 per kg in the month of April. There was again a peak increase in December to Rs.16.78 per kg. This price surge in the market during November, December encouraged the farmers who have adequate water to go for tomato cultivation. As a result there was high production in the local areas which led to arrivals till March 2^nd week this year. In Coimbatore market the fresh arrivals from other districts and other states also takes place during February and this excess supply has a bearing on the price of tomato to downward side ie., to the level of Rs 2 - 3.50 per kg. Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell analysed past five years tomato price of R.S.Puram, Uzhavar Santhai and the results confirmed that this lower prices of Rs.2 to Rs.3.50 for the farmers will continue upto second week of April 2007. Thereafter the prices will start increasing slowly. A maximum of Rs.4 to Rs.5.00 might be received during May for the farmers selling through commission agents while an additional one rupee could be received if sold through farmers’ shandies. The same will hold good for Ottanchatram market also. From last week of May 2007 there is a likelihood of prices increasing upto Rs. 8/ kg. If there is a heavy rainfall in Hosur, Royakottah, Palacode and Bangalore area then the farmers’ price will increase to more than Rs. 15/kg.

            The farmers are recommended to sell through farmers’ shandies to get maximum prices and the local processors can use the current lower price situation for bulk purchase and value addition as tomato jam and the like.

Small Onion - Store and Score up the Profit! (April 2007)

     Onion, a pungent edible vegetable is one of the oldest cultivated ones. It is considered as a food of exceptional value for flavouring and seasoning. Research has shown that onions contain antioxidants and can reduce blood cholesterol levels. They are low in calories and a source of dietary fiber. The world major producer of onion is China followed by India,  Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam, USA, Myanmar, Brazil and Bangladesh.

Bellary onion (Allium cepa var.cepa) and multiplier onion (Allium cepa var. aggregatum) are the two major onion groups cultivated in India. Maharastra accounts for 28 per cent of the country’s production (Bellary onion) followed by Gujarat, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Haryana. The productivity of onion is also highest in Maharashtra (20.62 tonnes/ha) followed by Gujarat and Haryana.

 In India onion is produced in three major seasons viz., Kharif, late Kharif and Rabi. Kharif season starts at June and harvesting is done in August – September. Late Kharif crop is sown during September and harvested during the month of November. The third season is Rabi season, which starts in the month of December, and the crop is harvested in the month of February. Onion is exported mainly to neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Maldives, Nepal, Kuwait, Indonesia, Mauritius, Seychelles, UAE, Singapore, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Dubai.

Tamil Nadu accounts for 5 per cent of onion area (Small onion and Bellary onion) and contributes 3.74 per cent of production. According to the trade sources nearly 70 per cent of area is occupied by small onion and remaining 30 per cent is by bellary onion. CO1, CO2, CO3, CO4, CO (On) 5, MDU 1 and Bangalore rose are important small onion varieties raised by farmers.

Table 1.Yearwise area and production of onion in Tamil Nadu

                             (Source: NHRDF.com)

Perambalur district occupies 24 per cent of the area under onion in Tamil Nadu and the other districts cultivating onion are Trichirapalli, Dindigul, Namakkal, Coimbatore, Erode, VirudhuNagar, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Salem. Perambalur, Trichy and Dindigul districts contribute more than 50 per cent of the onion area and production of our State. Yearwise area and production of onion is presented in Table 1. From Table 1 it could be inferred that area and production of onion in Tamil Nadu are in increasing trend.

To study the effect of fluctuations in small onion prices to profit and to assess the storability of the produce the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University carried out this study. The team led by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor has analyzed and forecasted the scenario of onion prices based on the price data of Dindigul market.

According to trade sources, usually small onion was mainly cultivated in three seasons, but now the produce is available in the market throughout the year in Tamil Nadu. Farmers are of the opinion that crop duration, lesser cost of cultivation, storability and better profits compared to other crops lead them to prefer onion after onion. Tamil Nadu and Karnataka meet the demand for onion in Kerala state. Traders stated that low transport cost was the reason for movement of onion to Kerala market from Karnataka rather than Tamil Nadu.

            Supply of onion from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu coincides with the months of March, April and August. Hence arrivals will be more during this period leading to downward shift in prices. Currently farmers are getting a price of Rs. 3 to 7 per kg depending on the quality, size etc. The prices will revolve around this upto end of May 2007. In the month of June and July the price will likely to increase to Rs.7 to Rs.10 per Kg. Next sowing in our state will be in the month of June. Less arrival from Mysore coupled with demand for seed onion shall push up the price upto Rs.10 (Rs.7-10) in the months of June, July. Onion harvested in Feb - March is more suited for storage and the farmers can store the produce for maximum of three months with less storage loss. Initial establishment cost for storage structure comes around Rs.7000 for 10 tonnes. It is advisable for the farmers to store the produce in pattrai and release the produce during June to get better price.                               

Sugarcane Cultivation – Will it be Sweeter? (May 2007)
Sugar outlook - World 

     There was a drastic rise in the world sugar price during the past two years. In 2004/05 because of stronger demand and weather-induced weaker production the world sugar price increased by 33.3%. And due to stock decline and high demand the world sugar price increased by another 16.6% during 2005/06. The sustained high world sugar price is also due to increased production of ethanol from sugarcane, particularly in Brazil. But the case is different in 2006-07. As per the International Sugar Organisation’s recent estimates for the year 2006/07, the world sugar production is estimated to be 160.203 million tonnes, up 7.493 million tonnes from the 2005/06. The consumption is forecasted at 153 million tonnes, up 3.2 million tonnes from a year earlier. Exports are forecasted at 48 million tonnes, and ending stocks are forecasted at 62 million tonnes. 

Sugar outlook - India

     There are more than 500 sugar factories in India. Sugar production in the country is observed to follow a 5-7 year cycle i.e. sugar production increases over a 3-4 year period, reaches a high, which in turn, results in problems of delayed cutting orders, much delayed payments etc. As a result, sugarcane and sugar production lowers for the next 2-3 years which in turn shoots up the sugar prices, proper cutting orders, immediate payments etc., resulting in increased area under sugarcane cultivation during the next season within this 5-7 year cycle.
     Close look on the India’s sugar position over years shows that beginning stocks, sugar production, supply, exports and ending stocks had decreased during 2002-2006. For the year 2006-07, India’s sugar production is estimated to be 25.10 million tonnes and the ending stocks will be around 6.79 million tonnes.
Tamil Nadu occupies fifth and third place in total sugarcane area and production of the country respectively. It is an important commercial crop of the state and contributes around 10 % of the total sugar production of the country. In Tamil Nadu around 2 lakh hectares of area is under sugarcane of which 65 % is planted and 35 % is grown as ratoon crop. The state produces about 20 to 25 million tonnes of cane with average productivity of 100 t/ha. 
     In Tamil Nadu sugarcane cultivation is done mainly by contract farming. This cash crop is the choice of the farmers because of assured market, assured price, good follow up by the sugar mills etc. Currently farmers of Tamil Nadu are facing the problem of delayed cutting orders ranging from 13 to 15 months as against the normal cutting order of 12 months. Due to this, the cane yield as well as sugar yield declines. Price remaining constant, due to reduction in yield because of delayed cutting orders farmers stand to get a lower amount from every unit of sugarcane cultivated. Because of better yield and excess production the sugar mills are facing the problem of milling in time and giving cutting orders in time. Because of excess supply of sugar throughout India and world, the sugar prices are dwindling. In Maharastra, open market prices are equal or less than levy sugar. The same trend is expected to continue in 2007 – 08 also. On the recent Sugar Summit and Bio Ethanol (2007) Conference experts have informed that the Indian sugar production and carry over stocks would be 26 million tonnes and 11.46 million tonnes respectively during 2007-08 (Business Line April 16, 2007). This will again lead to the problem of over stocking of sugar, delayed cutting orders to farmers etc. Studying the above situation the team headed by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Coordinator of the Domestic & Export Market Intelligence Cell, functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has recommended the farmers of Tamil Nadu and India to reduce the area to be planted under sugarcane during the ensuing season so as to minimize the losses due to delayed cutting orders, much delayed payment by mills to farmers etc.
      Also it is recommended that the sugar mills might go for modernization. It is time for Govt. of India to consider permitting sugar mills to directly process ethanol from sugarcane juice instead of from molasses and offer better prices for ethanol which will help farmers, processing mills, environment and the nation’s economy.

Cotton Prices on Upbeat Trend (July 2007)

     Cotton is an important cash crop in India and it contributes about 30 percent of the country’s agricultural domestic product. India has nearly 9 million hectares under cotton and the largest in the world but 65 percent of cotton production activities are rainfed and subject to the vagaries of monsoon. 

     According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the world cotton production is likely to fall marginally during 2007-08. Area under cotton cultivation is expected to decline significantly in United States to 4.9 million hectares, due to the biofuel policy favouring corn which has led to upward trend in corn prices. This had resulted in area shift towards corn from cotton. Cotton production in United States is estimated to decline by ten percent to 4.3 million tonnes. Similarly cotton production in China is expected to decline slightly and would be around 6.5 million tonnes, which is still the second largest producer to date. On the other hand, cotton production in Pakistan is expected to increase by five per cent ( 2.2 million tonnes). In India, the area of cotton increased from 86.77 lakh hectares to 91.58 lakh hectares with a production of 270 lakh bales during 2006-07. Market survey reports confirmed that remunerative cotton prices and better yields favoured cotton when compared to competitive crops namely groundnut and maize. The productivity also increased from 478 to 501 kg per hectare. The production increases have enabled India to become a net exporter of cotton. In 2006-07, India has exported 50 lakh bales of cotton and imported 6 lakh bales of extra long staple cotton.

     Trade sources confirmed that World cotton consumption is projected to increase by two per cent to 26.7 million tonnes with China continuing to be the main driver of consumption (40 per cent of the world total). Similarly World cotton export is expected to reach 9.21 million tonnes in 2007-08, from 8.51 million tonnes during 2006-07. 

     According to Apparel Export Promotion Council, the appreciating rupee is posing serious problem to textile exports and cotton exports and in turn it would affect entire cotton supply chain. Similarly increasing area under cotton in Punjab (10 percent), Rajasthan (15 percent), and Haryana (10 percent), also leads to pressure on cotton price towards downward side. But most of the traders opined that because of the marginal fall in the cotton production and increasing consumption in China could lead to upward pressure in international cotton price. Currently our prices are 4-5 cents cheaper than competitors and hence revival of cotton export may be on the positive note. Market sources confirmed that domestic demand of cotton for the mills is around 22 lakh bales per month but earlier commitments and repayment of loans favored mills to continue the same level of consumption or higher level (235 to 247 lakh bales) during the period. Both factors outweighed downside pressure on prices resulting in upward direction. 

     According to trade sources, in Tamil Nadu, mill consumption is around 70 lakh bales and only 7 percent of the requirement is supplied from Tamil Nadu’s production. Rest is supplied from North India, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and imports. In June2006, the price was Rs. 1970-2010 per quintal. But this year the price is moving around Rs.2400-2600 per quintal for good quality medium staple cotton. This upward movement has created anxiety among cotton farmers whether this trend will continue for few months or a short term phenomenon. The validity of cotton price forecast by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University was 98 per cent in the last year and hence large number of farmers put forth queries with regard to cotton price movement during this year also, especially, whether to continue holding stocks or to sell the stocks immediately to get maximum revenue. To answer these queries, the team consisting of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Dr.S.Selvam and Mrs.S.Anita of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the monthly data of market prices for the past twelve years that prevailed in Tiruppur Regulated market for the variety LRA-5166.The results of the analysis showed that cotton kapas prices will be pegged around Rs. 2600-2700 from July to September. Then there will be a slight decline of Rs100-200 per quintal in October, November. Hence the farmers who have harvested cotton now are requested to sell immediately since storage will not fetch any additional returns.

Price Forecasts For Adipattam Crops  (July 2007)

In Tamil Nadu, Adi pattam (July-August) is the main season for sowing many crops. The major crops grown during this season are cereals, oilseeds and vegetables. Usually south west monsoon coincides with this season. For effectively utilizing the south west monsoon farmers are in urge to make decisions regarding crop selection. The validity of commodity price forecast by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University was 98 per cent in the last year and it has created good reliance among farmers about its forecasts. This posed lot of queries by the farmers with regard to what crop or combination of crops to plant during Adi pattam?, what might be the price of the produce during harvesting seasons and so on. To answer these queries and facilitate the farmers in the ensuing season for taking right planting/ sowing decisions the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University carried out price analysis and market survey at important markets in Tamil Nadu for a pool of crops which might be sown during Adi pattam. 

Maize
Maize, like any other cereal is grown across all the states in India. Among the major producing states, Andhra Pradesh tops the list with a contribution of 21 % to the total Indian production. Other producers are Rajasthan (7.5 %), Karnataka (18.6 %), Bihar (9.25%), Madhya Pradesh (8.5%), Uttar Pradesh (7.14%), Maharastra (7 %) and Tamil Nadu (1.6%).

     In Tamil Nadu, among millets maize is the major contributor accounting for 83.4% (2, 02,830 ha) of the total area. It is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode and Virudhunagar districts and these districts together share 77.1 % of the total area under this crop in the state. The major sowing seasons are Aadi pattam (June –August), Puratasi pattam (September- October) and Thai pattam (January-February). 

Gingelly

     Gingelly is the major oilseed crop grown under rainfed conditions in almost all the states of India. In Tamil Nadu, Villupuram, Cuddalore, Karur, Erode and Perambalur are the major districts that contribute to 51 per cent of the state area and 55 per cent of the state production. Erode district has the highest productivity of 628 kg per hectare. More than 80 per cent of the crop is cultivated as Kharif crop in Tamil Nadu. Sowing of the Kharif crop is taken up during the months of June, July and August and harvesting will be done from September end to early November. 

      According to statistical reports, over the years, gingelly area in Tamil Nadu had declined drastically by 22 % from 83,000 hectares in 2001-02 to 65000 hectares in 2005-2006. Consequently the arrivals of gingelly in the market were also low. As a result, price of gingelly seed also increased and reached a high of Rs.3423 per quintal during March, 2004. Again during March, 2007 the price was Rs.3314 per quintal. Market survey reveals that many farmers have shifted to other crops like Sunflower. Lower productivity, non availability of labour, high labour cost and poor realization of profits are reported as the main reasons for their preference towards other crops. 

Groundnut
     Groundnut is an important oilseed crop concentrated mainly in four states namely Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. In Tamil Nadu it was grown approximately in 6.19 lakh hectares during 2005-06 and produced about 1.09 million tonnes. Major groundnut production centres in Tamil Nadu are Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Vellore, Erode, Kancheepuram and Namakkal districts. In most of these districts groundnut crop is taken up as Adi pattam and Thai pattam crop. The arrivals are during February - March, April – May, September- December. TMV-10 (locally called Pattani), TMV-7, TMV-2, VRI-2, JL-24 (specific for confectionery) are the varieties widely cultivated by the farmers. 

     As per Agriculture Ministry's latest report, Indian oilseed season this year will see a dip in acreage and production in every single oilseed crop. Solvent Extractors Association reported that overall Kharif and Rabi groundnut in this oil year (November 2006-October 2007) would also decline to 53.5 lakh tonnes as compared to 62.5 lakh tonnes last year as acreage under the crop has slipped. 
The market survey also revealed that there was reduction in groundnut area in all the growing districts of Tamil Nadu and also in major growing states viz., Gujarat, Maharastra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Farmers had shifted to cotton, sugarcane, black gram, small millets, and vegetables like bhendi and moringa. All the above factors triggered the price of groundnut pods and kernels to a record high during January – May, 2007 in all the markets of Tamil Nadu.
The anticipated prices during harvest of the above crops as analysed by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell by the team of scientists consisting of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Ms.P.Padmavathy, Mrs.D.Murugananthi and Ms.V.S.Prema are given below. Based on these prices, farmers are requested to take up their sowing decisions.

SUNFLOWER PRICES TO RULE FIRM (August 2007)

     Sunflower is one of the major edible vegetable oils consumed throughout the globe. The oil is used for culinary purposes, in the preparation of vanaspati and in the manufacture of soaps and cosmetics. Sunflower oil is a rich source (64%) of linoleic acid which helps in washing out cholesterol deposition in the coronary arteries of the heart and thus good for heart patients. The oil cake contains 40-44 per cent high quality protein. It is ideally suited for poultry and livestock rations. It can also be used for manufacturing baby foods. The sunflower kernels can be eaten raw or roasted. 

     World sunflower area accounts for 20 million hectares and production around 30 million tonnes. Major cultivating countries are Russia (5.41 million hectares), Ukraine (3.69 million hectares), India (2.16 million hectares), Argentina (1.89 million hectares) USA (1.06 million hectares) and China (1.05 million hectares) occupying about 68 % of the total world sunflower acreage. Russia, Ukraine, Argentina and China are the major producers of sunflower contributing 55 % of the total world production. The average productivity of sunflower in India is very low of 615 kg/ ha as compared to other major producers. About 3 million tonnes of sunflower are traded in the world market. Bulgaria, France, Hungary, Russia and Romania are the major exporters contributing around 1.8 million tonnes of the total exports. Spain, Turkey, Netherlands, Italy and Germany together account for 70 % of the total imports.

     In India, sunflower is cultivated in around two million hectares (10 % of the world sunflower area) and production is around one million tonne (4 % of the world sunflower production). The major producers of sunflower are Karnataka (54.86%), Andhra Pradesh (20.83%) and Maharashtra (14.58%). According to the market sources, 70% of the crop is produced in Rabi (November – March) season, and remaining 30% in Kharif (June – September). The major trading centers for sunflower oil are Mumbai, Chennai, and Hyderabad. 

     In Tamil Nadu, for the past five years sunflower is a crop of choice for farmers in Trichy, Erode, Karur, Dindigul, Villupuram and Cuddalore regions. This is due to its wider adaptability, high yield potential, shorter duration and profitability. The total area of sunflower and production in Tamil Nadu during 2005-2006 were 0.17 lakh hectares and 0.21 lakh tonnes respectively. The productivity of sunflower in Tamil Nadu is 1240 kg/ha which is higher than the national average of 615 kg/ha. About 68 % of the crop is raised under irrigated conditions. The major market centres of the state are Vellakoil, Moolanur and Kodumudi and sunflower grown throughout Tamil Nadu is sold in these three markets only. 

     Increase in the price of sunflower seed and reduction in groundnut area raised queries among the sunflower growers in Tamil Nadu like whether Chitrai crop which has started flowing in the market will fetch higher price or vice versa and whether to increase acreage in the forth coming season. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted market surveys at Vellakoil Regulated market, the major market centre for sunflower and analyzed the past seven years price data of sunflower seed prevailed in this market. 

     In these areas the crop is raised in two seasons’ viz., Karthigai pattam (October-November) and Chitrai pattam (April-May). The trade sources revealed that the peak arrivals are during March, May, July and August months and as much as 50,000 bags per day (50kg per bag) of arrivals could be seen in some days in these months. The traders out source sunflower from Karnataka only when there are fewer arrivals in these markets to meet the demand of oil mills in Tamil Nadu. Traders also prefer Tamil Nadu crop (40-42 kg oil per quintal sunflower) for its high oil recovery than Karnataka crop (35-36kg oil per quintal sunflower). Normally April-May (Chitrai pattam) crop starts arriving to the markets from the third week of July onwards. The market sources opined that the arrivals will be low in this season (July, 2007 to September, 2007) since rainfall was poor last year.

     The team consisting Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Ms.P.Padmavathy, of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, analyzed the sunflower price data of the Vellakoil Regulated market and concluded that the price of sunflower will remain stable for the next two months. The modal price will revolve around Rs.22 to Rs.23 per kg during August – September, 2007. Even though the demand for sunflower oil is increasing and groundnut production has declined there is no likely chance for the price of sunflower to increase due to the decline in palm oil futures in the ensuing three months. Hence the farmers are advised to release the produce as and when harvested. They are also recommended to sell the produce through Regulated market at Vellakoil to get maximum net prices and avoid selling at farm gate.

Small Onion – Sell Immediately and Realise Profit (September 2007)

     Bellary onion (Allium cepa var.cepa) and multiplier onion (Allium cepa var. aggregatum) are the two major onion groups cultivated in India. Onion is produced in three major seasons viz., Kharif, late Kharif and Rabi. Kharif season starts at June and harvesting is done in August – September. Late Kharif crop is sown during September and harvested during the month of November. The third season is Rabi, which starts in the month of December, and the crop is harvested in February. 

     Tamil Nadu accounts for 5 per cent (0.26 lakh hectares) of onion area and contributes 3.74 per cent (2.67 lakh tonnes) of production. According to trade sources, more than 90 percent of multiplier onion is cultivated in the southern states of India. In Tamil Nadu nearly 70 per cent of area is occupied by small onion and remaining 30 per cent is by Bellary onion. CO1, CO2, CO3, CO4, CO5, MDU 5, and Bangalore rose are important small onion varieties raised by farmers in this state. Perambalur district occupies 24 per cent of the area under onion in Tamil Nadu. Other districts cultivating onion are Trichirapalli, Dindigul, Namakkal, Coimbatore, Erode, Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, and Salem. More than 50 per cent of the onion area and production of our State is contributed by Perambalur, Trichy and Dindigul districts. 

     Increase in price of bellary onion, increase in area of small onion and reduced arrivals from Karnataka have raised queries among onion growers in Tamil Nadu, whether Kharif crop which will be harvested in September will fetch higher prices or not and whether to sell immediately or store the produce. To answer these queries raised by farmers, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted market surveys at Ottanchathram and Dindigul, the major market centers for small onion in Tamil Nadu and analyzed the past ten years price data of small onion that prevailed in Dindigul market. Trade sources informed that onion which is raised by seed is preferred over onion raised by bulb because of the appearance and size of the bulbs produced. On the other hand storage loss will be lesser in onion raised by bulbs.   Supply of onion from Karnataka and Tamil Nadu coincides in the months of March, April and August. Rainfall during harvesting period will lead to price hike in onion since the produce is very susceptible to weather conditions. The quality of bulbs which arrives at Dindigul and Ottanchathram markets from Karnataka is affected because of rainfall during harvesting period.

     The team consisting Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Ms.D.Murugananthi, of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning at Centre for Agriculture and Rural Development Studies, analyzed the small onion price data of Dindigul market. Currently farmers are getting a price of Rs. 8 to 12 per kg depending on the quality, size etc. It will increase to Rs. 10 to 15 per Kg upto October 2007. If there is heavy rainfall in Palladam, Tiruppur, Perambalur and Erode area then the farmers’ price will increase beyond Rs.15/kg. Next sowing in Tamil Nadu will be undertaken during the month of November. Hence in November, the price is likely to be more than Rs.15 per Kg because of demand for seed onion. If rainfall occurs it is not advisable to store the produce since it will lead to more losses. Hence farmers are recommended to release their produce as and when harvested to get better prices.

October sowing: Is it remunerative for chilli cultivation?  (September 2007)

     Chilli is the universal spice of India. Chillies are valued as a spice for their pungent taste and red colour. Globally it is grown in 15 lakh hectares with a production of around 70 lakh tonnes. The largest producer of chillies in the world is India accounting for 12 lakh tonnes of production annually followed by China (4 lakh tonnes), Mexico (3 lakh tonnes) and Pakistan (3 lakh tonnes). World trade of chillies is around 4 lakh tonnes. The major chilli exporting players are India (25%), China (24%), Spain (17%), Mexico (8%), Pakistan (7.2%), Morocco (7%) and Turkey (4.5%). The major importers of chilli are UAE, EU, Srilanka, Malaysia, Japan and Korea. 

     India is the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of chillies. India has the largest area (8.8 lakh hectares) under chillies in the world. The important chilli growing states of India are Andhra Pradesh (49 %), Karnataka (14 %), Orissa (7 %), Maharashtra (5 %), West Bengal (5 %), Rajasthan (5 %) and Tamil Nadu (4 %). The average productivity of chillies in India is around 1,112 kg/ha. Andhra Pradesh leads with maximum productivity of 1948 kg/ha followed by Punjab (1607 kg/ha). The major varieties of chilli cultivated in India are Sannam, LC 334, Byadgi, Wonder Hot, Jwala etc. Sannam S-4 variety is the most popular and export variety.

     Chillies are exported as chilli powder, dried chillies, pickled chillies and chilli oleoresins. The major importers of chillies from India are United States of America, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Singapore, Malaysia, United Kingdom, Nepal and Mexico. In 2005-06, export of chillies from India was 1.13 lakh tonnes valued at Rs. 403 crores. Dry chillies contribute a majority of (72%) the total exports from India, followed by chilli powder (27 %) and chilli seeds (1%).

     In Tamil Nadu it was cultivated in 0.49 lakh hectares during 2005-2006, leading to a production of 0.32 lakh tonnes. Ramanad, Thoothukudi, Sivagangai and Virudhunagar districts are the major chilli tracts of Tamil Nadu. The crop is mainly raised in October - November. The peak arrivals of Sannam in the market are during January – April. During peak season the daily arrivals will be in the range of 1500 – 2500 bags and during lean season the arrivals will be in the range of 200-250 bags. The traders procure chilli from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharastra when there are fewer arrivals in these markets to meet the local demand. The production in Andhra Pradesh especially Guntur district determines the price of chilli which is the major producer and market for chillies in India. Major markets in India including Chennai are served by Guntur only.

     Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted market and traders surveys in Ramanad, Paramakudi, Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi and Chennai markets. It was reported that during 2005 – 2006, China imported a huge quantity of chilli from India because of their poor crop and good demand in their markets. This boosted up the price to an all time high in the history of chillies to Rs. 75/ kg, which pushed up the area under chilli cultivation. Adequate rainfall during cropping season of chilli in the year 2006 – 2007, helped the farmers to get higher yield. Hence there is a huge stock of 45 - 50 lakh bags (40Kg/ bag) in cold storages at Guntur this year. In Tamil Nadu about 15 lakh bags (20Kg/bag) are available in cold storages. Also farmers of Tamil Nadu and Guntur are holding about 10 to 14 lakh bags. The price of cold stored Sannam chillies during August, 2007 was Rs.50 – 55 and for non cold stored Sannam chillies it was Rs. 35/kg.

     The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell Co-ordinator, Dr.N.Raveendaran and Senior Research Fellow, Ms.V.S.Prema analyzed the monthly price data of chillies prevailed in Virudhunagar market. They concluded that the price of Sannam chillies after harvest (arrivals starts from January) will go down side. It will be around Rs.25 – 30/kg during January, 2008. This is because of huge stock in cold storages in Tamil Nadu and Guntur. Hence farmers who want to take up cultivation of chillies in the ensuing October sowing season are requested to take their planting decision based on the anticipated harvest price of Rs.25-30/kg. 

Tips for Karthigai pattam sowing (October 2007)

     In Tamil Nadu more than 50 per cent of the land is under rainfed cultivation and Karthigai pattam is one of the important cropping seasons of rainfed cultivation in the state. North East monsoon coincides with Karthigai pattam (Oct-Nov) in Tamil Nadu. Normally Tamil Nadu receives 64 percent of total rainfall in North East monsoon. Sowing is taken up for many crops during these months to take advantage of both the monsoon showers and the following winter mist. Coriander, Cumbu, Bengal Gram, Sunflower, Gingelly, Groundnut and Maize are some of the crops of preference among the farmers of Tamil Nadu during this pattam. The price behavior for Karthigai pattam crops were analysed by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University to facilitate decision making on crop planting for this season.

Bengal Gram
     Bengal gram is the third most important pulse crop in the world after dry bean and pea and constitutes around 20 per cent of the world’s pulse production. The world’s total production of bengal gram hovers around 8.5 million metric tonnes annually and is grown over 10 million hectares of land approximately. India is the largest producer of bengal gram in the world contributing around 66 per cent followed by Pakistan, Turkey and Iran. It is the major pulse crop in India and occupies 40 per cent of the total pulse production. During 2005-06 India produced around 5.6 million tonnes of bengal gram from an area of about 6.93 million hectares. Madhya Pradesh tops the production with a share of 2.56 million tonnes (26 per cent) followed by Rajasthan (16 per cent) and Maharastra (15 per cent). The Desi type bengal gram contributes to around 80% and the Kabuli type around 20% of the total production. 

     In Tamil Nadu, bengal gram is cultivated in about 5900 hectares with a production of nearly 4007 tonnes. 76 per cent of the crop is cultivated in Coimbatore district with an area of about 4500 ha followed by Dindigul (800 ha) district. Udumalpet market is one of the main markets for bengal gram and price data for last three years were collected and analyzed. According to trade sources, in all the growing states sowing of bengal gram falls in the month of October–November (North East monsoon period). If the crop gets adequate mist during its growth period the prospects will be good. The crop is well suited for storage and the farmer can store the crop for 8 months without any major weight loss. The peak arrivals are in the months of February–March and in this period 4000 tonnes of bengal gram arrives to Udumalpet market. The local demand is met by arrivals from Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Because of the festive season in the month of October the demand for Bengal gram will be usually high during this month. Based on the analysis, the prices of Bengal gram per quintal will hover around Rs. 2700-2800 during the months of February - March. At present its price is Rs.2900 per quintal. In spite of harvesting the price will remain to be Rs.2700-2800 per quintal due to the demand.

Cumbu 

     Cumbu is one of the millets grown in rainfed tracts of Tamil Nadu. The usage of bajra as food has decreased and now it is mainly used in poultry feeds. In India, the crop is grown over 10.39 million hectares, representing 30 per cent of the acreage of the world. Cumbu is cultivated in two seasons and mostly in Oct-Dec. Mainly it is sown during October in accordance with the rainfall. In Tamil Nadu it is grown in an area of about 98000 hectares with a production of 1.24 lakh tonnes and Tuticorin district has the highest area of 20,965 hectares followed by Villupuram district. The DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price will be higher during the month of February-May and August-September. Currently (October, 2007) the price of cumbu in Kovilpatti market is Rs.7.00 per kg. Last year harvest price (January, 2007) was Rs.5.70 per kg. Trade sources revealed that there was a shift towards maize crop because of its good market price. Hence this year the area and production of cumbu will see a downtrend. The price of cumbu will be around Rs.600-650 per quintal during January-March and it will be around Rs.650-750 per quintal during April-May.

Coriander

     Coriander is a minor spice crop having prime position in flavouring food. Green leaves of coriander are also used for culinary purposes. The largest producer of coriander in India is Rajasthan accounting for 1.42 lakh tonnes of production (56%) followed by Maharastra (0.38 lakh tonnes), Assam (0.19 lakh tonnes), Gujarat (0.18 lakh tonnes), Andhra Pradesh (0.13 lakh tonnes), and Tamil Nadu (0.06 lakh tonnes). India exports about 20,500 tonnes valued Rs.74.62 crores in the form of seed, powders and oils. The main importers are USA, UK, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Middle East. India’s main competitors in the world markets are Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Morocco, Iran and China.
In Tamil Nadu, Thoothukudi has an area of 6,819 ha followed by Virudhunagar, Coimbatore and Cuddalore. The total area and production of coriander during the year 2005-06 were 21062 hectares and 6,424 tonnes respectively. The major market centres are Virudhunagar, Vilathikulam and Kovilpatti. DEMIC analyzed the price data of coriander prevailed in the Virudhunagar market and concludes that the price of coriander seed during February to March, 2008 will be in the range of Rs. 3000 - 3250 per quintal. The current prevailing price is Rs. 4125 to Rs.4500 per quintal. 

The anticipated prices during harvest of the above crops as analysed by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell by the team of scientists consisting of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Mrs.S.Anita, Ms.P.Padmavathy, Mrs.D.Murugananthi and Ms.V.S.Prema are given below.

Potato Prices in Decreasing Trend (November 2007)

     Potato is a major food crop, grown in more than 100 countries in the world and it is one of the major commercial crops grown in India. India ranks third by contributing around 7.5% to the world’s production. During 2006-07, 27 million tonnes was produced in an area of about 1.5 million ha. However, potato consumption per capita in India (14.8 kg/head/year) is one of the lowest in the world and hardly one percent of the potato is processed. 

     Potato is a major vegetable widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu whereas it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul (2796 ha), Nilgiri (1950 ha), Krishnagiri (131 ha) and Erode (126 ha) districts. Dindigul and Nilgiri districts together constituted about 95% of potato area in the state during 2005-06. Both area and production are in the down trend over years from 1974-75 to 2005-06. In Nilgiri district potato is cultivated in three seasons namely Irrigated season / Neer bogam (Mar, Apr- Jun, July), Kar bogam (May- August) and Kadai bogam (Aug, Sep- Nov, Dec).

     Potatoes can be stored in cold storage for about five to six months. In Mettupalayam, cold storage capacity is 35,000 tonnes and about 20,000 tonnes of potatoes are stored in cold storages. Potatoes coming from other states like Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh are mainly stored. Peak period of storage takes place during January to May and is released during June-July. 40% to 50% of stored produce is used for seed purpose. Potatoes grown in Nilgiri district are stored to a lesser extent only. Traders are mainly following storage practices for seed purpose. Most of the farmers are not storing due to lack of awareness, land holding size and high cost. The Potatoes coming from Nilgiri district fetch higher price than potatoes of other states due to its superior quality and taste preference. 

     Mettupalayam is one of the major trading centres in India. The Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society (NCMS) and about 100 private commission mundies are functioning in Mettupalayam. Nearly one third of potato is traded through Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society. Potatoes from only Nilgiri district would be traded through NCMS. Other state potatoes are traded in private mundies. The arrival of potato is high during the months of June to December. Peak arrival is during August and September. During January to May the arrivals will be low. Mettupalayam market reflects the overall prices of potato in Tamil Nadu. The team comprising of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Mrs.S.Kavitha, Senior Research Fellow of the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu agricultural University has analyzed and forecasted the scenario of potato prices based on the monthly price data from 1991 and came to the conclusion that there would be a decline in potato prices in the coming months. The potato prices at NCMS will be around Rs. 550 to 650 per 45 kg during November, 2007 and Rs.400 to 550 per 45 kg during December 2007 and January 2008. Price is comparatively high during November because it is lean season with limited availability of supplies. Most of the harvest in India starts November onwards. As more product starts arriving in the market, price starts coming down from December onwards. Even storage for two to three months will not fetch higher prices due to arrivals from other states. Hence potato growers are advised to sell their potato immediately on harvest. 

Maize harvest price seems to be good! Karthigai sowing is yours!  (November 2007)

     Maize is one of the most important cereals of the world. Rising incomes in India and the consequent growth in meat and poultry consumption have resulted in rapid increase in the demand for maize as feed. This year, high maize prices prevailed at planting time and increase in the government support price at Rs.620 per quintal compared with Rs.540 per quintal in the previous year (2006-07) favoured maize crop over other competing crops like groundnut and led to increase in area under maize. The high variation in maize price created confusion among the farmers whether the Karthigai pattam crop will get remunerative price or not. Forecast validity of previous DEMIC forecasts (95 %) won the confidence of maize farmers in Tamil Nadu. Hence they put forward queries on whether the Karthigai pattam crop (November, December sowing) will get remunerative price or not. To answer these queries the team consisting of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor, Dr.S.Selvam, Associate Professor, Ms.P.Murugananthi, and Ms.P.Padmavathy, Senior Research Fellows of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has analyzed the past twelve year’s monthly price data of maize in Udumalpet market. 

     This year, world has produced 768.23 million tonnes of maize from 157.14 million hectares with the productivity of 4.89 tonnes per hectare. Increase in production was due to the favourable bio fuel policy of developed countries towards maize crop compared to other crops like beet root, sesame and rape seed. India produces around 15 million tonnes of maize from an area of 8.3 million hectares with a productivity of 1.8 tonnes per hectare. Among the major producing states, Andhra Pradesh tops the list with the contribution of 3 million tonnes. Trade sources confirmed that, this year the maize production might reach 16.3 million tons as against 15 million tons in 2006-07. The increase in production has negative impact on maize prices.

     As per the current trade policy of India, exports of maize were restricted to state trading enterprises until September 4, 2007, after which time maize exports by the private trade is permitted. According to trade sources, maize exports may touch 500,000 tons mostly to neighboring countries of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, because of lower domestic prices vis-à-vis world prices i.e $40-50 cheaper than prices being offered by US and Argentina. This export opportunity has positive impact on the maize price. 

     In Tamil Nadu, maize is the major contributor among the millets accounting for 83.4% (2 lakh ha) of the total area under other millets. It is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode and Virudhunagar districts which together share 77.1 % of the total area under this crop in the state. According to trade sources demand for Maize by poultry industry in Tamil Nadu is estimated to be around 8 lakh tonnes. Maize production in Tamil Nadu meets only less than half of the demand of poultry industry. Hence poultry firms procure maize from Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar for their demand. 

     Export opportunity and increase in domestic consumption off sets price sliding due to higher production this year. Net effect of this will keep the maize price to remain firm during the harvesting time (February-March) and similarly the price analysis also confirmed that the price of maize in the months of February-March, 2008 will be around Rs.700-750 per quintal. Hence farmers are advised to take up sowing maize in Karthigai pattam (sowing in November) considering the above said factors and if the price is profitable. 

Small Onion - Prices to Stay Firm (January 2008)

     Bellary onion (Allium cepa var.cepa) and multiplier onion (Allium cepa var. aggregatum) are the two major onion groups cultivated in India. The swing in small onion price was very high during the past three months (October-December). The price oscillated between Rs.7 to 30 during that period. The heavy down pour during harvest in major growing places has affected the quality and availability of the bulbs and caused the prices to increase ever before. This in turn affected the onion availability for local consumption as well as export. The farmers are eager to know whether the January sown crop (Thai pattam) will get the same price or not. To answer this, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has analyzed the past ten year’s monthly price data of onion in Dindigul market. Tamil Nadu accounts for 5 per cent (0.26 lakh hectares) of onion area and contributes 3.74 per cent (2.67 lakh tonnes) of production. According to trade sources, in Tamil Nadu nearly 70 per cent of area is occupied by small onion and remaining 30 per cent is by Bellary onion. More than 50 per cent of the onion area and production of our State is contributed by Perambalur, Trichy and Dindigul districts. 

     Trade sources informed that the price of onion bulb for sowing is Rs.25-30 per Kg. This makes the farmers to prefer seed onion (CO5) over bulb sowing. If farmers go for seed onion they can save upto Rs.19,000 per hectare on price of sowing material. The bulb sown produce upon harvest could be stored for a period of three to five months while the seed grown produce could be stored for a period of two months only. Storage loss and cropping period of seed sown crop is also high compared to that of bulb sown crop. Seed sown crop is preferred for export over bulb sown crop. Considering the above facts farmers could take a decision on seed or bulb sowing. The DEMIC team consisting of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Mrs.P.Murugananthi, Senior Research Fellow confirmed that the expected local and Karnataka arrivals and export demand will keep the prices to rule around Rs. 8-13 during March –April i.e., during harvest period of January sown crop. If the price is profitable the farmers are recommended to take up sowing, and depending on their financial position they can sow seed or bulb onion. 

Groundnut Prices to Remain Steady: Go for Sowing (January 2008)

     Groundnut accounts for 25 % of the total oilseed production in India. The prices of castor seed, soybean and groundnut during October, November and December 2007 ruled high. The fluctuation in prices, record production of kharif groundnut and import policy of edible vegetable oil created confusion among the groundnut farmers whether groundnut price will remain firm or not. The important factors which influence the groundnut oil prices in India are its domestic production and imports of palm and soy oil. As the domestic production of soybean and availability of edible oils through domestic sources is expected to be sufficient to meet the requirements, import of palm oil and soy oil will reduce this year. The recent removal of ban on Indian groundnut by Russia and growing demand for groundnut from America, China and Brazil will have its impact on the price of groundnut.

     In Tamil Nadu groundnut is cultivated in 6 lakh hectares and about 1.5 million tonnes of groundnut is produced with an average yield of 1775 Kg/ha. Market survey reveals that in the past three to four years farmers have lost interest in groundnut cultivation and shifted to sunflower and maize crops. The growing demand for groundnut seed by the confectionary industry and for table purpose boosted the price of groundnut in all the markets. 

     Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator and Ms. P.Padmavathy, Senior Research Fellow of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the historical monthly price data of groundnut pods collected from Sevur Regulated market. The econometric analysis of groundnut prices and market survey confirms that the price of groundnut pods during March-May, 2008 will remain firm because of increasing demand by confectionary industry. It will be in the range of Rs.2200-Rs.2450 per quintal. It may then decrease there onwards to Rs.2100 per quintal. Hence the farmers are advised to take up sowing Thai pattam groundnut based on the above price forecast.

Price Forecast for Black gram (Feb' 2008)

     Black gram or urad is one of the important pulse crops in India. Globally the largest producer of this pulse is India followed by Myanmar and Thailand. The incapability of Indian production to satisfy its domestic demand makes it the largest importer of this pulse as well. The major black gram exporting countries are Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. India imports nearly 85% of black gram requirements from Myanmar followed by Singapore and Thailand.

     India annually produces around 1.3 to 1.5 million tonnes of black gram, which is normally 10 per cent of India’s total pulse production of 12-15 million tons. The major producers in India are Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. 

     Black gram is one of the important pulses grown in Tamil Nadu and is grown during both Kharif and Rabi seasons. It occupies 41% of the total area under pulses and the area and production during the year 2005-06 are 2,15,448 ha and 70,758 tonnes respectively. The crop is extensively grown in Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur, Cuddalore, Tirunelveli, Villupuram, Thoothukudi and Thanjavur districts and these districts together accounted for 78% and of the total area under the crop. The arrivals from Kovilpatti, Sattur, Virudunagar, starts in January and it goes till March. Also this year, the rainfall is good and the North Indian blackgram is less affected by rains (last year it is more than 50%).Hence the arrivals in the market are good. There was a rise in pulse price during Ayuthapuja and Diwali, which was only for a week and it was due to Myanmar problem. The rice fallow pulse from Tanjore belt comes from March to June. Arrivals from other states start from August. 

     Last year the price of blackgram was Rs .3,500-4,000 per quintal and it was attributed by various reasons like online trading, crop damage due to rainfall. But this year the crop prospects in India and Myanmar are good. The arrivals from North India has started coming to the market. There is a ban on export of pulses. 

     Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project coordinator and Mrs.Anita, Senior Research Fellow of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University have analyzed the price trend based on Virudunagar data and concludes that the farm gate price of black gram during February to March 2008 will be in the range of Rs.2,200-2,300 per quintal. The price will be 10% higher in June, July. Regulated Markets are providing pledge loan facility for Blackgram. Farmers can store and avail loan facility upto a period of 180 days with 5% annual interest rate and farmers can store and sell their produce during June and July. 

Vegetables will Fetch Higher Prices in Summer (Feb 2008)

     Tamil Nadu accounts for 2.10 lakh hectares of vegetable area with a production of 62 lakh tonnes. Brinjal, Bhendi, Onion, Tomato, Drumstick, Bitter gourd and Snake gourd are the plain vegetables grown in more area. In Dindigul and Nilgris districts, hilly vegetables like potatoes, beans, carrot, cabbage, etc., are cultivated and marketed in Ottanchatram and Mettupalayam markets.

     Though vegetable production is more than the state’s demand, about 70 percent of vegetable demand of Kerala is met by Tamil Nadu. Apart from Tamil Nadu, Karnataka also supplies vegetables to Kerala. Hence the vegetable price volatility in Karnataka influences the vegetables prices in Tamil Nadu too. If there is any unexpected short fall in production due to rainfall/ less water in Karnataka it will affect the prices in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. 

     Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Co-ordinator and Mrs.S.Anita, Senior Research Fellow of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University have analyzed the price data of vegetables and conclude as follows:

     In Tamil Nadu, tomato arrivals starts from August to February and Karnataka arrivals starts from March to July. Hence the price of tomato will be higher during the months of April, May, June. Cultivation of tomato during summer will yield only 60-70 percent. Hence it is better to select heat tolerant varieties.

     In case of small onion, prices will be higher during April, May, June. There is a demand for seed Onion and also the arrivals from Mysore to Tamil Nadu markets declines during this period. Also price of cabbage will be higher during June, July months and cauliflower price during May, June and July. Higher price for beet root is expected in May, June Months.

     This year, due to better rainfall, the vegetable production will be high. Though the production is expected to be good, there is an increasing demand for vegetables which will sustain the prices at a higher level.

     Hence, the farmers are requested to use the above information, and plan the time of sowing and adopt the recommended technologies to increase profits. 

Chilli prices set to decline marginally only (Feb 2008)

     Chilli is one of the important spice crops of India having good export potential. World chilli area accounts for 1.5 million hectares and production around 7 million tonnes. The largest producer of chillies in the world is India accounting for 12-14 lakh tonnes of production annually followed by China with a production of around 4 lakh tonnes, Mexico with around 3 lakh tonnes and Pakistan also with 3 lakh tonnes. 

     The major chilli exporting countries in the world are India (25%), China (24%) and Spain (17%). India is the largest producer and consumer of chilli in the world. Around 90% of India’s production is consumed within the country. India also has the largest area (8.8 lakh hectares) under chillies. Chillies exports from India during 2006-07 was 1,48,500 tonnes valued at Rs. 807.75 crore against 1,13,174 tonnes valued at Rs. 403.01 crore in 2005-06. It is exported in the form of Chilli powder, dried chillies, pickled chillies and chilli oleoresins. 

     Area and production of chilli during the year 2005-06 in Tamil Nadu was 67 thousand hectares and 44.5 thousand tonnes respectively. Ramnad, Viruthunagar, Paramakudi, Thoothkudi and Sivagangai are the major chillies producing districts of Tamil Nadu. The crop planting starts from October and extends till November. The harvesting begins from January. The peak arrivals are reported in February to April. The market remains active till May.
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted market and traders surveys in Ramanad, Paramakudi, Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi and Chennai. The trade source confirmed that the stocks available in the cold storages at Guntur are 25 lakh bags (40 kg/bag). The Guntur chilli crop is expected to be better than that of last year. The arrivals from Guntur has started coming to Tamil Nadu. The prices of cold stored Sannam chilli are now ruling at Rs.40-50 per kg in Virudhunagar and Chennai markets. Arrivals from Tamil Nadu crop is expected to be delayed by one month (usually arrivals starts from January) due to late sowing. 

     The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell Co-ordinator, Dr.N.Raveendaran and Senior Research Fellow, Ms.V.S.Prema analyzed the monthly price data of chillies prevailed in Virudhunagar market. They concluded that the price of Sannam chillies will be around Rs.30-40 from February to March 2008. Normally prices would start falling from January due to fresh arrivals and during the peak arrival period in February we will see a sharp decline (Rs. 20- 25). But this year price of chilli will be around Rs.30-40. This is because chilli production in 2007-08 has declined by 10 per cent because of unseasonal rainfall in Tamil Nadu. However, export pattern will play a vital role in price movement. At present, there is a good demand from Srilanka, Bangladesh, Singapore and Malaysia.

Good price for Sunflower (Mar 2008)

     Sunflower is the oil of preference among the consumers world over due to its health appeal. In India too, sunflower oil is the largest selling oil in the branded oil segment (about 45 %). Sunflower is also a crop of choice for farmers due to its wider adaptability, high yield potential, shorter duration and profitability. The crop is raised in two seasons viz., Karthigai pattam (October-November) and Chitrai pattam (April-May). Marketing activities coincides with March – May and June – August. Sudden rise in edible oil prices and increase in import of edible oils raised queries among sunflower growers whether the Karthigai sown and presently being harvested crop which has started flowing into the market will fetch higher price or vice versa. To answer these queries the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted a market survey at Vellakovil Regulated market, the major market centre for sunflower and analyzed the past seven years price data of sunflower seed prevailed in this market. 

     Indian sunflower seed production ranges between 10-15 lakh tonnes. The major producers in India are Karnataka (35%), Andhra Pradesh (30%), Maharashtra (15%), Punjab (4%) and Haryana (4%). Around 70% of the crop is produced in Rabi (November – March) season, and remaining 30% in kharif (June – September). Trichy, Erode, Karur, Villupuram and Dindigul are the major sunflower growing belts in Tamil Nadu. The major market centres of the state are Vellakovil, Moolanur and Kodumudi. Vellakovil market is the major centre for Trichy, Karur, Erode, Salem, Dindigul and Theni districts. 

     According to the market sources, heavy rainfall during flowering season adversely affected the crop in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh resulting in drop in production compared to previous year. Increase in price of sunflower oil in international markets makes the import unfeasible. For the last two years consumption of edible oil has increased by over 40 per cent. The above said factors has put upward pressure on domestic sunflower oil segment. Price analysis conducted by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Co-ordinator and Mrs.P.Murugananthi, Senior Research Fellow confirmed the upward trend in prices. It will be around Rs.28 to 31 per kg during March- May 2008.The maximum price will be offered to the high quality seeds which will weigh about 42 gms for volume of 100 ml. Depending on the volume weight basis price will change. The price may rise marginally and taking into account the cost of storage, weight loss during storage and interest charges it is recommended that the farmers may sell sunflower immediately without storing. 

Prices of Rice: To Increase Marginally (Jun 2008)

     With an inflation rate rising to 8.24 per cent, the price of staple food – rice is escalating to newer heights. Both the governments at central and state levels are taking measures to reduce the same. At the same time there is a fear that price of rice may increase shortly due to off season. Hence the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University studied the price behavior of paddy and rice in Tamil Nadu to bring out the price forecasts for the next four months.

     In Tamil Nadu paddy is cultivated in three major seasons namely Kuruvai (May-June), Samba (Sep-Oct) and Thaladi (Nov-Dec). The major varieties preferred for Kuruvai are ADT 36, CO43, ADT 43 and TKM 9. For Samba and Thaladi BPT, ADT 36, ADT 37, ADT 39, CR-1009 and CO 43 varieties are preferred. The average yield per acre is around 30-40 bags (1 bag=65 kg) with a cost of cultivation of about Rs.12000-Rs.15000/-per acre.

     Red hills, Thiruvallur district is the major paddy market in Tamil Nadu and acts as a gateway for the entry of Andhra Pradesh paddy as Tada, the border town is just 25 km from Red hills. Normally the peak inflow of paddy will be from January-March during which period about 2000 tonnes/day of paddy arrival is reported. About 60 per cent of this comes from Andhra Pradesh and the remaining from Thiruvallur and Kancheepuram districts. During April-May the arrivals will be around 1000 tonnes/day and during lean season i.e., July-August 20-50 tonnes/day is reported which is from Andhra Pradesh only. The recent ban on export of rice from India pushed Andhra Pradesh paddy into Red hills to an extent of 2000 tonnes per day in April-May, 2008. Paddy accumulated here is distributed to Madurai, Erode and Tiruppur mills and rice milled at Red Hills alone is consumed by Chennai metropolitan. There are about 150 mills in the Red hills area and each has a per day processing capacity of 12 tonnes of paddy. For processing paddy into rice, millers incur around Rs.1-1.25 per kg which includes labour, electricity and other charges. By processing one load (12 t) of paddy, miller can get 7500 kg rice (61-66%), 2500 kg husk (27-30%), 500 kg broken rice (4-5%) and about 1500 kg bran (10-12%), A storage loss of 8-10% is accounted in case of storing paddy for more than a year.

     The rice millers in Erode, Karur and Coimbatore districts procure paddy from Karnataka. Peak arrivals will be in the months of December to April. Usually May-November is considered as lean season. Procurement is mainly from Gangavathi, Sindhanur and Karthagi districts. Sona, Deluxe, Emergency, BPT and ADT 43 are the major varieties procured from Karnataka. During April-May they procure paddy from Thanjavur (Athisaya ponni and Emergency), Kumbakonam and Thiruvarur regions. In Madurai district the rice mills procure from Ramnad and Thanjavur districts apart from local procurement.

     The peak procurement of paddy in Thanjavur and Kumbakonam region is during January-March. At that time the arrivals will be about 12000 tonnes/ day (1000 lorry loads (1 lorry=12 tonnes). Arrivals during these months are from Thanjavur, Kumbakonam, Vellore, Ulundurpettai, Thiruvarur and Nagapattinam. During April-June arrivals are from Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Gingee and Tindivanam. During off season viz., from mid June to October arrivals from Andhra Pradesh are reported. Mostly paddy from these areas is distributed around the districts. 

     The price of paddy is fixed on four major criteria namely moisture content (11-12%), outturn of rice, percentage of broken rice and percentage of black grains. At Thanjavur and Kumbakonam in the last Samba and Thaladi (January- March, 2008) harvest period the paddy price of CR-1009 and BPT (Andhra Ponni) were Rs.730- Rs.1000 and Rs.1030-Rs.1050 per quintal respectively. The prevailing wholesale prices of rice at Red hills market are Rs.1460, Rs.1130-1200, Rs.1600 and Rs.1860 per quintal of ADT-37, TKM 9, (both of lower quality) ADT-43 (deluxe), and BPT (fine) varieties respectively. The introduction of Rs.2/kg of rice scheme in Andhra Pradesh has a direct impact on the price of paddy and rice in Tamil Nadu. The scheme has restricted the inflow of paddy into Tamil Nadu from Andhra Pradesh as a larger portion of the production is procured by its government. Traders are of the opinion that there will be increase in the price of rice by Rs.100 for low, Rs.150 for medium and Rs.200 for fine quality of rice of 75 kg bag in November-December. Farmers are expecting an increase in the price of paddy in another three to four months to an extent of Rs.150-Rs.200 per quintal in all the varieties. 

     Coimbatore and Erode districts are endowed with natural con
sent and there would not be any shortage or shortfall for rice in the forthcoming months as reported by the millers. The restriction by Andhra Pradesh government won’t affect the demand for paddy directly in Erode and Coimbatore but indirectly it will reflect in the price of paddy and rice. The millers are expecting a price increase of Rs.50-100 per bag of paddy because of increased consumption and demand. It is to be noted that rice prices are expected to be firm at world level at least until the third quarter of 2008 inspite of a higher production.

     Under the above situation the price analysis done by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell and his team confirmed an increase in price of paddy by Rs.100-200 per quintal and price of rice by Rs.150 to 300 per quintal up to September, 2008. A marginal decline in rice price is expected from October, 2008 onwards due to Kuruvai harvest. Much reduction in prices of paddy and rice is not expected in spite of anticipated larger area under ensuing Kuruvai and Samba/Thaladi paddy. 

     To minimize the rise in prices of paddy and rice it is suggested that godown facilities may be offered to wholesalers and millers whether they go for pledge loans or not in the godowns owned by Regulated Markets and Marketing Societies including rural godowns.

     One of the reasons for increasing paddy price is the increase in cost of cultivation of the same. Adoption of System of Rice Intensification (SRI) method of cultivation would lead to reduction in cost of production of paddy. Hence efforts are to be made for larger scale adoption of the same.

     Direct procurement of rice from millers by organized retailers would also lead to reduction in rice prices at consumer level since there is an increase of Rs2-3 /kg of rice from miller to consumer through wholesaler and unorganized retailer of rice.

     Farmers and Farmer’s groups might be encouraged to convert the paddy produced by them into rice and direct sale of the same to the consumer through Farmer’s Shandies, which will reduce the rice prices at consumer level and increase the price realized by farmers.

Price Forecast for Adi Pattam crops
     It’s time for the farmers of Tamil Nadu to get their fields ready as the flourishing Adi pattam will be on their doorsteps in another two weeks. The major crops grown during this season are cereals, oil seeds and vegetables. The DEMIC-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University is involved in price analysis and market survey of important agricultural commodities to help farmers with regard to what crop or combination of crops to plant during Adi pattam?, what might be the price of the produce during harvesting season and so on. The team of DEMIC analysed the price behaviour and conducted surveys in major markets and came out with the following results.

Maize
     India produced 16.3 million tonnes of maize from an area of 8.3 million hectares during 2007-08 with 10 percent higher production over last year. Better price realized in the last season and increase in minimum support price favored this crop over other crops and has resulted in increased production. According to trade sources, 2.5 lakh tonnes of maize is produced in Tamil Nadu. Maize is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode and Virudhunagar districts which together share 77.1 percent of the total area (2.02 lakh hectares) under this crop in the State. 

     According to trade sources, Indian maize exports are estimated at 2.4 million tonnes which is 380 per cent higher than that of previous year. Increased export estimates, lesser arrivals from July to September and increased demand from poultry industry will make a supply crunch in the domestic market. Since export is suspended upto 15th October, 2008, the price may rule around Rs.900 per quintal in the forthcoming months, viz, July to September. According to trade sources, sowing is progressing in major growing states like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. The new crop arrivals will hit the market from September end and after that the prices will slowly decrease and rule steady.
 
Gingelly

     Gingelly, one of the important oil seeds is grown mainly as a rainfed crop in India. The crop duration is 3-4 months. India is the largest producer of gingelly accounting for 30 per cent of the world output. Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, West Bengal, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam, Orissa and Maharastra are the major gingelly growing States. It is sown during July-August and market arrivals are from September- December. 

     According to Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, the country produced about 6.20 lakh tonnes of gingelly during 2006-2007 which is projected to increase by 15 percent in 2007-2008. West Bengal stands first in Rabi season crop followed by Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh in Kharif season.
In Tamil Nadu, Erode, Thanjavur, Villupuram, Karur, and Thoothukudi districts account for 60% of the total area under this crop. It is mainly cultivated in Adi and Karthigai seasons. The crop sown during June-July (Adi crop) is harvested during September-October and comes to market in October – November. Karthigai crop which comes to market during the month of March-April is sown during December- January.

According to trade sources, the arrivals of gingelly to the local markets came down drastically due to unexpected rainfall during the harvest months. Shift in cropping pattern from gingelly to sunflower, flood in West Bengal etc boosted the prices to an extent of Rs. 52 per kg for black variety and Rs. 55 per kg for red gingelly during March 2008 which is 43% higher than the previous year.
We are currently in the beginning of the Adi pattam for gingelly production. Between now and the commencement of festival season there can be a brief spike in the prices, thereafter the prices will reduce and rule firm with new arrivals flowing into the market.

Groundnut

     Groundnut is a major oilseed contributing about 25 % of the total oilseed production. The four major states namely Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka contribute more than 75 percent of the total output (8 million tonnes in 6 million hectares). In Tamil Nadu groundnut is the major crop under oilseeds accounting for about 10 lakh tonnes of production. Thiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Vellore, Erode, Kancheepuram, Namakkal, and Thiruvallur are the major districts producing groundnut constituting 50 % of the total production of the State. About 70% of the area and 55 % of the production is taken up as rainfed crop mainly in June-July. The peak arrivals in Tamil Nadu are during October-November and February-May. The harvesting season in Gujarat, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh also falls during November-January. 

     The prices of groundnut pod and kernels had increased during January – May, 2008 in all the markets of Tamil Nadu. But looking at the global outlook and Indian scenario the ensuing Adi pattam arrivals will stabilize the price of groundnut in all the markets. As per FAO’s Food Outlook, this year world groundnut (due to India's improved performance), rapeseed, palm kernel and copra production is expected to rise, whereas soybean and sunflower seed production is expected to dip. Thus the anticipated production increases will offset the drop in certain oilseeds and keep the prices firm. The same scenario is also prevailing in major growing states of India. In Gujarat there is a likely increase in the groundnut area because of its high prices, increasing incidents of disease in the cotton crop and possibility for a second crop in the Rabi season. Also in Tamil Nadu, farmers are interested in groundnut cultivation widely in Adi pattam (Kharif). Despite the expected copious output this season, the normal increasing demand for groundnut and augmented demand due to Diwali festival will keep the price in a steady range.

     The anticipated prices during harvest of the above crops as analysed by Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project co–ordinator of DEMIC and team of scientists consisting of Ms.P.Padmavathy, Mrs.D.Murugananthi and Ms.D.Sri Akila are given below. 

Based on these prices, farmers are advised to take up their sowing decisions.

COTTON PRICES TO INCREASE (Aug 2008)

     The word “Cotton” is highlighted often in dailies and newspapers. This year, cotton price increased inspite of higher production in India. Cotton farmers are happy on one side whereas the textile sector is in a gloomy situation on the other side. To balance the burning issue, the Government has taken steps like import duty waiver and registration of export contract in the office of the Textile Commissioner before shipment (notification to Directorate General of Foreign Trade). Added to this, the cotton area has reduced as farmers shifted to alternate crops like maize, soya and groundnut in major cotton producing areas of India. The present cotton scenario urged the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University to take up an analysis on cotton to guide farmers to take up cotton sowing in August. 

      The World, cotton production is expected to decline by 3% to 25.5 million tonnes in 2008-2009 as per International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC). A major drop in production is forecast in the United States and smaller declines are expected in China (Mainland), Brazil, Egypt, Turkey and Central Asia. Production increases are projected in Australia, the African Franc Zone.World cotton stocks are forecast to decrease by more than one million tonnes to 11.0 million tonnes in 2008-09. The ICAC forecasts an increase in price in the “Season-average Cotlook A Index” from 73 cents per pound in 2007-08 to 82 cents per pound in 2008-09.

     India, the world’s second largest cotton producer registered a bumper crop of 315 lakh bales and a new-high volume of export (85 lakh bales) last year. Cotton prices in the domestic market spurted by about 25 per cent in recent months. Increased exports supported the domestic prices. If the recent weakness in rupee sustains, it would help boost cotton exports. Due to poor monsoon, the acreage has dropped in major producing areas like Maharastra (From 26.20 to 10.50 lakh hectares) and Gujarat (from 12.50 to 8.5 lakh hectares). Hence at all India level, the cotton production will slightly decline and domestic and export demands will be firm in the ensuing cotton year .

     In Tamil Nadu, there is little scope to increase the cotton acreage. At the maximum it could produce 5 lakh bales as against the State’s requirement of 95 lakh bales of lint. Rest is supplied from North India, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and imports. In Tamil Nadu, there are five major zones of cotton cultivation and each zone represents different eco-climatic regions and cultivation practices. One among them is the Winter Cambodia Irrigated Zone comprising of districts viz, Coimbatore, Salem, Tiruchirapalli, Perambalur, Dharmapuri and parts of Madurai characterized by the cultivation of long staple cotton, MCU 5. The crop is sown in August and harvested in January-February. If there is better or belated rainfall, the farmers will tend to cultivate cotton as they have received a good price in the last season. Last year (2007), in July the price of MCU5 cotton was Rs.2550 and this year it is Rs3200 per quintal. The price hike is attributed by the increase in demand by the textiles, exports, rupee depreciation ie., nearly 15% against US dollar from the start of cotton season . 

     Last year DEMIC forecasted that cotton price during October 2007 would be around Rs.2500-2600 per quintal of LRA 5166 and the real price was Rs.2525 in the market. This confidence level led a large number of farmers to put forth queries with regard to cotton price movement during this year and whether to go for cotton in Puratasi pattam (sowing in August). To answer these queries, Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Co-ordinator and S.Anita, Senior Research Fellow, DEMIC analyzed the market prices that prevailed in Tiruppur Regulated market for the variety MCU5. The results of the analysis showed that cotton kapas prices will move up in the next three months. The price in August, September is expected to be around Rs.3400-3500 per quintal of MCU5 whereas currently it is around Rs.3100-3200 per quintal. For the next one year ending July 2009 the cotton kapas price would hover around Rs 3400-3500 per quintal. If there is any change in the export policies of the Government of India, it may affect the above price level. Taking this price range the farmers are recommended to go for cotton cultivation in Purattasi (August) season.
Sell Sunflower seeds Immediately: Farmers Advised (Aug 2008)

Globally the prices of edible oils, especially that of palm oil exhibits a decreasing trend. In Malaysian markets during July, 2008 the price of palmolein was 3700 Malaysian Ringgit per tonne which has drastically reduced to 2750 Malaysian Ringgit as on date. So also the prices of crude oil are exhibiting a downward trend. Due to the above, the prices of edible oils have started declining. On the otherside crude palmolein and the refined could be imported into India without tax and with 7.73 percent tax respectively. This has put the sunflower growers in a quagmire whether the Chithirai sown crop which has started flowing into the market will fetch higher price or vice versa since about 70000 to one lakh quintals of sunflower seeds are expected to hit the markets in Tamil Nadu before October, 2008. 
To answer these queries Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator, Ms.D.SriAkila and Ms.P.Padmavathy, Senior Research Fellows of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University studied the price behaviour and conducted a market survey at Vellakovil Regulated Market, the major market centre for sunflower, and analyzed the past eight years price data of sunflower seed prevailed in this market. India produces about 1.5 million tonnes of sunflower seed from 2.3 million hectares with a productivity of 615 kg/ha. In Tamil Nadu productivity is more than 1000 kg/ha. Karur (20 %), Erode (16 %), Trichy (13 %), Dindigul (12 %), Villupuram (8 %) and Namakkal (6 %) are the major production regions in Tamil Nadu. The crop is raised in two seasons viz., Karthigai pattam (October-November) and Chitrai pattam (April-May). Because of good sunshine and climate prevailing during growing period the quantity and quality of the produce is better in the second season i.e. April – May. Last year the arrivals of Chitrai sown crop to Vellakovil, Kodumudi and Moolanur Regulated Markets were about one lakh quintals with more than 50 percent sold in Vellakovil Regulated Market.
Internationally and domestically palm oil and soy oil prices influence the price of sunflower oil in the markets. Palm oil prices which were increasing in the past two years had increased the sunflower oil and oil seed price in all the markets of India. For instance sunflower seed price at Vellakovil Regulated market, was ruling at Rs.13-17/kg in January-July, 2006 gradually increased and moved to Rs.30/kg in February-March, 2008. 
Now the international price of palm oil and soy oil is found to be decreasing due to surplus production and lower demand from the consuming countries. And this is pronounced in the prices of edible oils in the Indian markets. Besides the global recession, to curb the increase in edible oil prices the Government of India relaxed the import duty of crude sunflower oil, palm oil and soy oil to zero percent and also reduced refined sunflower oil and RBD palmolien and soy oil import duty from 28.33% to 7.73 %. This duty reduction, according to the trade sources, impacted the prices of all edible oils in the domestic markets. From the start of mid July, 2008 both palm oil and soy oil prices in the market started showing a downward trend. Palm oil which was Rs.57/kg two months back is now Rs.48/kg. And also the crude sunflower oil which was Rs.1020/tin (15kg) in the last month is now Rs.840/tin. The refined sunflower oil prevailed at Rs.77/kg in the fourth week of July, 2008 is now Rs.74/kg. 
In Tamil Nadu due to price rise prevailed in the previous years farmers had gone for cultivating more sunflower during this season. Arrivals which normally come in September started arriving from August this year. But the quality of produce is expected to be low because of high infestation of diseases and insects and as a result an oil recovery of 40-42 % which was realized earlier is expected to be low in the range of 36-38 % this year. 
The econometric analysis confirmed that the price of sunflower seed will be in the range of Rs.24-26 per kg in the months of September-December, 2008. Sunflower seeds weighing more than 40g per 100ml will fetch Rs.2-Rs.3/kg more than the above said price. Market survey confirmed that the arrivals are expected for another one or two months. Inspite of Deepavali and other festivals the downward trend and good arrivals will curtail the price rise of sunflower seed and there is no scope for increase in prices for next two to three months. Hence farmers are advised to sell their sunflower seeds immediately.

Red Chillies: Ippasi Sowing is Promising (Oct 2008)

     Chillies, the Wonder Spice, are mostly cultivated as a rainfed crop in India. Domestic consumption accounts for around 9.11 lakh tonnes per annum. Andhra Pradesh is the largest producer of chilli in India and contributes about 26% to the total area under chilli, followed by Maharashtra (15%), Karnataka (11%), Orissa (11%), Madhya Pradesh (7%). 

     In 2007-08, the total acreage brought under chilli cultivation is around 7.2 lakh ha, an increase from last year’s 7 lakh ha. Rising export demand coupled with higher price realization in the domestic market have motivated farmers to bring more area under chilli cultivation. However, the production target was not achieved due to floods in Andhra Pradesh, a major producing center, at harvesting time, resulting in a sharp decline in production to 12.5 lakh tonnes from the earlier estimates of 14 lakh tonnes. But, production in 2007-08 showed an increment by 2.38% over previous year’s 11.5 lakh tonnes.

     Tamil Nadu crops around 49000 hectares of chilli annually and produces about 31000 tonnes of red chillies with a productivity of 649 kg/ha. Ramanad, Thoothukudi, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar and Tirunelveli are the major growing belts which together contribute about 70 and 78 percent of the total chilli area and production respectively. About 60 percent of the crop (29000 hectares) is raised as rain fed crop which is mainly from Ramanad and Thoothukudi districts. The crop planting starts from October and extends till November. Rainfall from North East monsoon (October-December) plays a crucial role in the cultivation and production of chillies in the major growing regions.

     Normally red chilli arrivals in the markets starts with the first crop from Madhya Pradesh in the mid of October followed by Karnataka (Byadgi) in November, Maharastra in December and Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu in January. The red chilli arrivals extend till mid May. The peak arrivals are reported during March- April. During this time traders and processors directly procure from farmers and store it in cold storages. The storage costs ranges between Rs. 250-Rs. 300 /month/tonne. Normally more than 5000 bags (1 bag = 40 kg) of red chillies arrive to Chennai market daily especially from Guntur, Ramnad and Virudhunagar during season. 

     Since our current agriculture revolves around the monsoon, chilli farmers are also under the sticky situation as Ippasi Pattam (October-November) sowings are approaching faster. Under these circumstances Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator, Ms.P.Padmavathy and Ms.D.Sriakila Senior Research Fellows of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made a study on the market scenario and the price behavior of chillies in the major markets viz., Virudhunagar, Ramnad, Paramakudi, Thoothukudi and Chennai. The econometric analysis of the historical data reveals that the price of chilli will range between Rs 47-Rs.50 per Kg during harvest season. Good demand added to meager stock in the cold storages will maintain the price firm in the above range during January – May 2009. On the contrary the fundamental market study foresays that the price of chillies are expected to come down to an approximate level of Rs 40 per Kg if bumper production (more than 12 lakh tonnes) is realized due to proper onset and distribution of north east monsoon with adequacy of rainfall. In such case farmers can take advantage of the price hike during off season, by collectively joining together and stock the red chillies in bulk quantities at their nearest cold storages.
 
     Hence the farmers are advised to take up sowing chillies in the forthcoming Ippasi month based on the above forecasted price.

Price Forecast for Karthigai pattam Crops  (Nov. 2008)

     Karthigai pattam (November- December) is approaching, and being an important cropping season of rainfed cultivation in the State, farmers are planning to cultivate different crops based on the North East monsoon and prices they may receive. Crops preferred in this season are Coriander, Cumbu, Bengal Gram, Sunflower, Gingelly, Groundnut and Maize. Hence to facilitate farmers in planting decision, Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Co-ordinator, Mrs.S.Anita, Ms.P.Padmavathy, Mrs.D.Murugananthi and Ms.D.Sriakila, Senior Research Fellows, in the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the prices of Karthigaipattam crops and have given the following suggestions to farmers.

Bengal Gram
     In Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore district occupied 76 per cent of the crop followed by Dindigul district. Udumalpet is one of the major markets for bengal gram and price data from this market for last five years were collected and analyzed. Good rainfall and better prices are expected to increase the area under bengal gram in the forthcoming sowing season. Price of other pulses, import price and climatic condition during flowering and harvesting phase decides the price of gram in the local market. Based on the analysis, it is expected that the prices of Bengal gram per quintal will hover around Rs. 2700-2900 during the peak harvest months of February – March, 2009. 

Coriander
     Coriander is one of the important spice crops used in all curry powders. The price was Rs.3,500 a quintal in January, 2008 and has touched an all-time high of Rs.10,000 a quintal in July. The main reasons for price surge was low output followed by low inventory (10-15 lakh bags against 15-20 lakh bags) and export demand. In Tamil Nadu, Thoothukudi had the maximum area followed by Virudhunagar, Coimbatore and Cuddalore districts. DEMIC collected the price data from the Virudhunagar market and analyzed the price and concludes that the price of coriander seed during February, 2009 to March, 2009, ie. during harvest, will be in the range of Rs.6500 to Rs.7200 per quintal of coriander seed. Harvesting stage of coriander is most important and harvesting when the seeds turn golden brown in color will fetch a better price.

Cumbu 
     Cumbu is one of the millets grown in rainfed tracts of Tamil Nadu. It is grown in an area of about 98000 hectares with a production of 1.24 lakh tonnes in the State and Tuticorin district has the highest area of 20,965 hectares followed by Villupuram district. Last year harvest price (January, 2008) was Rs.570 per quintal. Since maize fetches a higher price than cumbu there is a shift from cumbu to maize largely and priced Rs.100-150 per quintal lesser than maize. This year the area and production of cumbu would remain the same as last year and the farm gate price of cumbu will be around Rs. 650-750 per quintal during harvest period, ie. February -March 2009.

Sunflower
     Consumption of palm oil and sunflower oil has increased over the years more particularly in Tamil Nadu. Due to heavy rains, the last season crop (April-May) sown was badly hit and the quality of the produce was affected. Also farmers realized comparatively lower yield last time because of disease and poor quality seed materials. These factors along with the removal and relaxation of import tariff for edible oils had reduced the price of sunflower to Rs.28-Rs.30 per kilogram. DEMIC analysed the past seven years price data collected from Vellakovil Regulated Market and confirmed that the price of sunflower seed will range between Rs 28-30/kg. during January, February 2009, i.e., the harvest season. Import tariff on vegetable oils will have direct effect on the price of sunflower seed. Government reimposition of import duty on edible vegetable oil will keep the price of sunflower seed firm at the above said level or else it will decline to Rs.23-26/kg.

Based on these prices, farmers are advised to take up their sowing decisions.

Price Forecasts for Thai Pattam crops  (Jan - 2009)

   One of the major sowing seasons for maize is Thai Pattam (from January 15 onwards). Farmers with irrigation facilities will be growing maize during this season. The produce which comes to harvest in May, June normally gets the maximum prices in the year. Karnataka farmers have also begun to cultivate maize in this season and they sow in February which comes to harvest in the above said May, June only. From Karnataka it is purchased by traders for resale to poultry units at Tamil Nadu. Maize is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode and Virudhunagar districts of Tamil Nadu which constitutes 77 percent of the total area (2.02 lakh hectares). 

     The Government of India had fixed a Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Rs. 840 per quintal for the Kharif sown crop while the market price ranges from Rs.790-820 per quintal currently. Thus the price realized by the farmers is less than the Minimum Support Price as of now. Unless the Government intervenes in the market, there are chances for further decline in the maize prices. The price of egg on 7th December, 2009 was Rs.2.02. Today also the same price is prevailing in the market. However the price of chicken has increased from Rs.50 to Rs. 57 during this period. This should have increased the price of maize. On the contrary the prices have come down on the reason of bulk arrival. This requires the market intervention activities by Government.

     Under this context with limited chances for export of maize due to decrease in price of crude and bird flu in Assam, farmers are in an indecisive mood about sowing maize in Thai Pattam. To answer these queries the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has analysed the prices of maize that prevailed in Udumalpet regulated market for the last 15 years. Dr. N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator and Mrs.D.Murugananthi, Senior Research Fellow of the cell upon analysing the prices concluded that the Thai Pattam maize crop which would be harvested in May, June 2009, will fetch a price of Rs 825-875 per quintal. If the export of egg is revoked by May, June then there is a chance of increase in the prices further.

     Based on the above, farmers in Tamil Nadu are recommended to go for maize sowing in the ensuing season. They are advised to sow varieties/ hybrids with bold grains to fetch better prices. If the approximate number in 100 gram of maize grain is less than 350, higher prices could be received by the farmers.

     Another major crop of Thai Pattam in Tamil Nadu is gingelly. Red, Black and White gingelly are cultivated in the State. Red gingelly occupies major area followed by black and white gingelly in that order. White gingelly fetches the maximum price followed by red variety. Currently they are sold at Rs 65 and Rs 57 per kilogram respectively at the farmers level.

     India is one of the leading producers and exporters of gingelly. It has a good demand in Japan, Western Europe, the Middle East and USA. Erode, Tiruchirapalli, Karur and Thanjavur districts have a larger area in Tamil Nadu. Many sunflower farmers have started switching to gingelly since it is more lucrative and easy to cultivate with limited labour requirement. Normally farmers say that 1 ploughing + 2 weeding = Gingelly harvest. Also the price of gingelly is little affected by import of palm oil at lower prices from Indonesia and Malaysia. To help the farmers in taking a decision on sowing, Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator and Miss D.Sriakila, Senior Research Fellow of Domestic and Export market Intelligence Cell have analysed the past 15 years prices of gingelly that prevailed in Sivagiri and Anthiyur regulated markets and confirm that the price of red gingelly which will flow into the market during May, June will remain firm at Rs 54-57 per kilogram while that of white gingelly will be Rs 60 and above per kilogram. Based on this price range farmers could take a decision on cultivation of gingelly. 

     It is to be noted that better prices could be realized for quality produce and in the case of gingelly 100 ml should weigh approximately 60 gm and a good aroma should exist.

Masi Pattam Cotton Price Will Stay Close To MSP (Feb '09)

     Cotton, being an internationally traded commodity is facing problems due to global slowdown. Last year cotton markets witnessed wide fluctuations, with prices touching historic highs and later at the end of the year, closed at 15 percent lower than January 2008. Global cotton demand this season has fallen drastically. The fall in demand from China alone is estimated at around 24 per cent. China’s imports reportedly fell by 8.3 per cent from that a year ago due to severe weakness in the country’s textile industry. At the same time the World cotton production in 2008/09 is forecasted at 111.6 million bales, down 7.4 per cent from the (120.50 million bales) previous year, which is the largest year-to-year reduction since 2002-03.

     Factors explaining the declining global production include higher returns on competing crops, and the current turmoil in world financial markets. In the United States, 2008/09 production is forecasted to decrease by 5.6 million bales (29.1 per cent) from last year. A significant decline of about 1.6 million bales is also expected in Brazil after producing a record 7.4 million bales in 2007-08. China, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan are each estimated to show a reduction of 0.5 million bales in 2008-09 production. 

     Indian cotton market is largely integrated with the global market. The domestic market takes cues from the international market. India is the second largest producer of cotton (4.13 mn. metric tones), accounting for 16 per cent of global production, with the largest cultivated area in the world (96 lakh hectares in the cotton season of 2007-08(October-September).

     Cotton production was 315 lakh bales (170 kg. each), a record in the cotton season of 2007-08. The productivity of cotton has jumped to 560 kg/hectare in the cotton season of 2007-08. During the same period, exports of raw cotton exceeded the target of 65 lakh bales and was 85 lakh bales, mainly due to fall in acerage in the USA and higher global demand. But this year International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has estimated domestic production to be lower at 280-290 lakh bales of 170 kg against 315 lakh bales last year.

     In September 2008, Government of India announced a significant hike in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of seed cotton, an increase ranging from 26 percent to 48 percent for medium and long staple varieties. Traditionally, the MSP are fixed based on the cost of production of seed cotton, and are not directly linked to market price of cotton (lint or fiber). Typically, market prices of seed cotton remained well above the MSP. This year the market prices had come down and the government agencies are the major buyers of raw cotton this season. The agencies have as of end December ‘08 reportedly procured at the MSP (which was raised by 40 percent this year) 48 lakh bales of cotton, about 46 percent of the total supply of cotton in the market. Indian cotton prices are ruling higher by around 5 to 7 cents per pound than the international price levels, which are hovering around 62 to 65 cents per pound. Cotton exports are likely to fall by around 20 to 30 per cent this year, owing to global economic meltdown. Also, according to Cotton Corporation of India, the ending stock will increase to 54 lakh bales which was only 43 lakh bales last year. The cotton prices are also influenced by cottonseed prices (currently Rs.12 per kg) which is in turn affected by import of edible oils. Hence in this market condition, cotton prices are expected to face a downtrend.

     Tamil Nadu is the largest consumer of raw cotton of about 60-65 percent of national production .But the cotton crop in Tamil Nadu is very meager and produces only 3-5 lakh bales a against the requirement of 65-70 bales . Cotton price movement had put forth queries from farmers whether to go for cotton in Masi Pattam as the farmers apprehend that the global economic melt down may affect cotton prices this year. To answer these queries, Dr.N.Raveendaran, Project Co-ordinator and S.Anita, Senior Research Fellow, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the market prices that prevailed in Tiruppur Regulated market. Last year the farmers received nominal price for cotton but still the area is declining as the farmers prefer maize to cotton due to labour shortage. Southern belt of Tamil Nadu (Rajapalayam, Virudunagar) and the Cauvery Delta in Tamil Nadu will be sowing cotton in Masi pattam (Feb-Mar).Normally; the price for this cotton will be higher than other crop seasons. But this year the price for Masi sown cotton will be around MSP price ie Rs 2600-2800 for long staple cotton and around Rs.2100-2300 for medium staple varieties. Left to market forces the prices that will prevail in June, July 2009 will be less than this. Since Government of India is procuring at MSP the above prices will prevail during the same period. Hence farmers are suggested to take a decision on cotton sowing based on the above. 

Red Chillies Prices Hot - Farmers May Sell Immediately (Mar.09)

     Chillies markets are becoming hotter on the eve of new arrivals hitting the market in another two to four weeks. The global output shows a declining trend in the last couple of years because of poor and unfavourable weather conditions in the major producing areas namely India, China and Pakistan. The global production in 2007-08 was 20.98 lakh tonnes as compared to 21.48 lakh tonnes in the previous year. However the scenario in India is different in that the dry chilli production is moving upwards in the last decade. India’s chilli exports are showing an increasing trend from the last decade on rising export demand coupled with short supply from other major producers, and the ban by the European Union on import of chilli from Pakistan due to presence of aflatoxin in its produce. According to the Spices Board, the total export of chillies from India in 2007-08 touched a record high of 2.09 lakh tonnes, valued at 1097.59 crore, up 41.2%, against 1.48 lakh tonnes valued at 807 crore shipped last year. In 2007-08, India exported 16.4% of its total chilli production. 

     Under this circumstance Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator, and Ms.P.Padmavathy, Senior Research Fellow of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore made a study on the market scenario and the price behavior of chillies in the major markets viz., Virudhunagar, Ramnad, Paramakudi, Thoothukudi and Chennai.

     There are many ups in the chillies prices in India. The major floods in South India during 2005-2006 boosted up the price of dry chillies to Rs.70 per kg almost in all the markets. Adding to this higher price realization in the domestic market, the rising export demand motivated farmers to bring more area under chilli cultivation in the last two years. In 2007-08, the total acreage brought under chilli cultivation was around 7.2 lakh ha, an increase from previous year’s 7 lakh ha. However, the production target was not achieved due to heavy rains in Andhra Pradesh, the major producing center, at the harvesting time, resulting in a sharp decline in production to 12.5 lakh tonnes from the earlier estimates of 14 lakh tonnes (but still a larger production from the previous year of 11.5 lakh tonnes). According to trade sources in Guntur, the major chilli market of India which normally witnesses about 1.25 crore bags annually, the heavy rains during harvest season (March, 2008) led to a decline in arrivals to 0.85 crore bags with large quantities of poorer quality chillies called ‘Sodai’. Consequently the prices of dry chillies during October-December, 2008 again peaked to Rs.60-65/kg for Andhra Pradesh Sannam, Rs.80-90/kg for Vilathikulam Samba, Rs.100-105/kg for Ramanad Mundu and Rs.55-62/kg for Tamil Nadu Sannam respectively for AC produce due to shortage of good quality chillies. 

     This major loss in the production adding to the labour shortage caused a shift towards more lucrative crops like cotton, maize and pulses in 2008-09 in Tamil Nadu. In Virudhunagar, Sathur, Krishnankovil, Rajapalayam, some pockets of Ramanad and Paramakudi there was a major shift towards maize. Maize was preferred because of the prevalence of better prices in the range of Rs.750-800/quintal on an average and also of its lesser labour demand for cultivation. There is also a report of failure of crop in Ramanad, Paramakudi, Illayankudi tracts of Tamil Nadu despite of 3 to 4 sowings due to delayed and poor onset of monsoon.

     Various trade sources put forth the stocks to be low in the major producing States. At the start of the year 2009 the stocks in the cold storages were 4-5 lakh bags (1 bag=40 kg) each in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharastra and 2-3 lakh bags and 70000-80000 bags in Calcutta and Tamil Nadu respectively. Normally red chilli arrivals in the major markets start during January end and extend till mid May. But this year due to delayed monsoon the arrivals are expected by March end. Trade reports state that as of now Andhra Pradesh crop promises good and arrivals of more than 100 to 115 lakh bags of red Chilli in the current year is expected but which is lower than the previous years 150-160 lakh bags. 

     Keeping in view of the above circumstances and the econometric analysis of the historical data DEMIC forecasts the price of red chillies for the Virudhunagar Samba variety to be Rs.48-Rs.54 per Kg in the months of March-May, 2009. Ramanad Mundu variety will be slightly higher to a tune of Rs.10-Rs.20 per kg and the poorest quality Sodai variety may fetch very lower to a range of Rs.15-20 per kg as there are more carry over stocks in the cold storages. Good domestic demand and meager stock in the cold storages will maintain the price firm in the above range during March-May, 2009. The fundamental market study fore says that the price of chillies are not expected to come down below Rs 40 per Kg even if bumper production (more than 12 lakh tonnes) is realized. 
Hence farmers are advised to realize high prices during the initial few weeks from the new crop arrivals. Normally AC stored produce fetches Rs.15-20 per kg more than the non AC chillies. The storage costs ranges between Rs.350/month/tonne. 

Turmeric – Store to Maximize the Profit (March '09)

     Indian Turmeric is considered to be the best in the world. It has a good export demand in importing countries because of its high curcumin content. India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of turmeric in the globe. Other major producers are China, Myanmar, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Srilanka. During 2007-08, India produced around 7.9 lakh tonnes of turmeric from 1.63 lakh ha which is 6 per cent lesser comparing the previous year.

    In India, turmeric is largely cultivated in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharastra, Orissa, Assam and Kerala. Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka jointly account for 82 per cent of the total turmeric production in India. Erode,Coimbatore, Salem, Namakkal, Dharmapuri and Krisnagiri districts altogether contributes 88 per cent of the total state production in Tamil Nadu. Sowing is taken up during the month of June -July and the arrivals to the market starts from February and extends till May. The peak arrivals will be in March, April. This year because of delayed monsoon the arrivals are expected to flow from mid March. 

Erode Regulated Market is one of the biggest markets for turmeric in India. Karnataka arrivals will start flowing from January and extends till March. According to trade sources this year arrivals from Mysore is lesser compared to last year (2008). In Nizamabad market, arrivals are staggered because of the restrictions for the green rhizomes to the market yard. 

     The carry over stock for the year 2008 is estimated to be around 5-6 lakh bags (1 bag = 75 kgs). The turmeric prices touched the historic high of Rs.4300 per quintal during July, 2008 while it was only Rs 2870/quintal in January, 2008. According to trade sources, this historic price hike made farmers and traders to offload the last few years stocks leading the minimum stock of approximately 1-2 lakh bags currently. 

Turmeric farmers are in confusion whether to dispose the produce immediately or to hold the stock to get better price in future. To help them in taking a better selling decision the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University surveyed the traders and analysed the past 15 years prices prevailed in Erode Regulated Market.

     Trade sources revealed that the area sown under turmeric in Erode district has increased to some extent but not as expected. According to Government estimates, in Andhra Pradesh, the major producing state the area sown under turmeric has reduced by 20 per cent. This results in lower production compared to previous year. Even though better prices prevailed in last year, the delayed monsoon, increased cost of cultivation, labour and water problems made the farmers to shift from turmeric to other short duration crops like maize and soybean.
 
     Since India contributes 60 per cent of the world turmeric trade Indian production and prices will affect the global turmeric trade to a greater extent. India exports mainly to United Arab Emirates, USA, Bangladesh, Japan, Srilanka, Malaysia, South Africa, Netherlands and Saudi Arabia. According to Spices Board of India, during April-January, 2008-09 exports from India were at 47,000 tonnes which is 15 per cent higher than the corresponding period during last year. 
Even though there is a slight increase in area under turmeric in Erode district, the lower carry over stocks, lower production estimates, good domestic and export demand will keep the prices in upward side. DEMIC analysis also confirmed that the prices will rule around Rs.4300 to Rs.4700 per quintal for the fingers during March - August, 2009. The prices will be in peak during July, 2009. Hence Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Co-ordinator and Mrs.D.Murugananthi, Senior Research Fellow, DEMIC, that Turmeric could be stored for few months and sold during July 2009 for reaping higher prices. The Erode Regulated Market there is no cost for storage of turmeric up to 15 days, thereafter only 10 paise /quintal /day is charged. Farmers can also store in State / Central Ware Housing Corporations and the storage cost is around Rs.6 / quintal / month. So the farmers are advised to store the produce till June and to release during July 2009.

SELL SUNFLOWER IMMEDIATELY  (Apr 2009)

     The Karthigai sown sunflower has started flowing in the market. It is one of the major seasons in Tamil Nadu. The prices of sunflower have gone down considerably considering the same period during 2008. Specifically it was Rs. 3090 per quintal during March 2008 while it has come down to Rs. 1940 per quintal. The farmers are keeping their fingers crossed in taking a decision whether to sell the harvest of sunflower immediately or store for 2-3 months in anticipation of better prices.

     Under this situation the team comprising of Dr.N.Raveendaran, Professor and Project Coordinator and Miss D.Sriakila, Senior Research Fellow of Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made a study on the arrivals Karthigai sown sunflower at Vellakovil Regulated Market. It is reported that there is late of arrivals of sunflower in this season. The total bags that arrived in this period in the last year was 30671 quintals (March 2008) while it is only 23085 quintals at present. Availability of quality seed of improved sunflower seed varieties and hybrids is grossly inadequate and is one of the important constraints in sunflower seed production as reported by a larger section of the farmers. Further, the nil custom duty for import of edible crude oils, pest attack during flowering and switch over to other crops had also influenced this decline. The impact of nil customs duty on all crude edible oils is an added drawback to the oilseed farmers as it facilitated huge inflow of imported oils to our country. For instance in January 2008 the import of crude sunflower oil was 13500 metric tonnes while it is 83698 metric tonnes in January 2009 due to import tariff.

     According to trade sources, arrivals of sunflower are expected till the end of April and about 1.5 lakh tonnes of crude sunflower oil will land in our country by April from Argentina. Traders opined that the price of sunflower seed till the end of June would be in the range of Rs.22- Rs.23 per Kg.

     The econometric analysis of sunflower prices of past eight years confirmed that the price would be in the range of Rs.20 – Rs.23 per Kg during April – June, 2009. If the new government re-imposes the import duty on edible oils then there is a possibility of increase in price by Rs.2-3 per Kg of sunflower seed. But considering the storage constraints and political environment farmers are advised to sell their sunflower seed at the prevailing market price immediately.

PRICE FORECAST FOR ADIPATTAM CROPS (July 2009)

     The South west monsoon had started already and farmers in Tamil Nadu are to raise crops during this Adi Pattam. Because of delayed on set of monsoon, farmers are indecisive to choose the crops for cultivation. To help the farmers in taking better sowing decisions, NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in TNAU has analysed the crops to be sown during Adi Pattam. 

Maize 

     According to trade sources, in Karnataka, maize cultivation is already taken up in a larger way during this kharif, which is in confirmation with the reports of Ministry of Agriculture that acreage under maize in that State has increased by 20 per cent compared to previous year. Reasons being higher Minimum Support Price(MSP) fixed by the Government of India and timely monsoon at Karnataka. 
In the case of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, we are yet to receive adequate rainfall for kharif sowing. In Tamil Nadu, maize area has shown a dramatic increase from 1.97 lakh hectares during 2006-07 to 3.49 lakh hectares during 2007-08 and the production has increased from 7.59 lakh tonnes to 13.37 lakh tonnes respectively. Shorter duration, lower cost of cultivation, minimum water requirement with low production and marketing risk compared to other crops were the reasons for the shift towards maize cultivation. We can expect the same trend during this season also. 

     Expected tender release by the Karnataka Marketing Federation, better stocks with poultry firms and traders of Tamil Nadu, reduced export demand due to lesser global prices and expected arrivals from Karnataka during August end indicates that the prices will not rule above Rs.1000 per quintal till harvest of new crop in Tamil Nadu. Under these circumstances, DEMIC econometric analysis done with nine years price data of Udumalpet market results confirmed that the price of maize will be around Rs.820-880 per quintal for the adi pattam sown crop, which comes to the market from October – December, 2009. 
Based on the above, farmers in Tamil Nadu are recommended to go for maize sowing in the ensuing season. They are advised to sow varieties/ hybrids with bold grains to fetch better prices. If the approximate number in 100 gram of maize grain is less than 350, higher prices could be received by the farmers.

Groundnut

     The Kharif sowing is in progress in Groundnut areas of Gujarat, which is the major producer of groundnut. In India, 70 percent of Groundnut is cultivated as rainfed crop and the South West Monsoon plays a major role in production. The delayed monsoon threatens farmers in taking the sowing decisions. Apart from delayed monsoon, increase in edible oil imports also affected the domestic oilseed prices drastically. In 2007-08 oil year, the import of oil accounted to 35.67 lakh tonnes, but from November 2008 to June 2009 itself the import is 58.24 lakh tonnes. Also the prices of palm oil has declined by 17 per cent recently and stocks are very high with traders, expecting a demand during festive time. Hence during this year the groundnut area is estimated to decline by 10 to 15 per cent from 2008-09 (60.9 lakh hectares) area.

     Tamil Nadu produces 16 per cent of total production of Groundnut in India from 6.81 lakh hectares. Data sources and traders survey confirmed that there will be a decrease in acreage under groundnut due to delayed monsoon and going for alternate crops like maize and casuarina. Hence the price of first grade groundnut pods during August to December will hover around Rs. 2300 to Rs.2400 per quintal. The forecast is made with the price analysis of Sevur Regulated market.

Gingelly 

     Gingelly is considered as a premium oilseed and is harvested during both summer and winter months. Being a rainfed region, sesame cultivation has gained momentum in Tamil Nadu compared to groundnut. Among the various districts in Tamil Nadu, Sesame is mainly cultivated in Erode, Villupuram, Karur and Thanjavur District occupying 60 per cent of the total production of the state. 
Indian Gingelly has demand in Japan, Western Europe, the Middle East and the United States of America but this year the export order is lost to Ethiopia, later being the cheaper source for Gingelly. Even Indian traders also imported 4000 tonnes Gingelly seeds from Ethiopia during November 2008- January 2009 which affected sesame market and the price dwindled to Rs 44 per Kg of first grade red gingelly variety.

Even though the acreage under gingelly cultivation increased this year the yield was not at the expected level ( 1.5-2 bags against 4 bags per acre i.e 300 kg ).The econometric analysis was made on the fourteen-year monthly price data collected from Sivagiri Regulated market. The analysis confirmed that the price for first grade red Gingelly variety would be in the range of Rs 40- 44 per Kg. As there is no much demand for exports, the price may be in the above said range. 

     The research team led by Dr.N.Ajjan, Consortium Principle Investigator, NAIP-DEMIC and Director, CARDS have informed that the prices anticipated for these three crops during October to December 2009 would be as follows and based on this the farmers are recommended to take their sowing decisions.

Price Forecast for August September Cotton (aug 2009)

     Cotton season (2008-09) in India which is the second largest producer in world is about to end with a market arrival of 290 lakh bales. The price movement was very volatile in the beginning of the season and the Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by Government stabilized the prices to a great extent. Since the traders are reluctant to purchase at MSP, Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED) purchased 45 per cent of the arrivals in major cotton growing States. 

     Globally, cotton trade faced snags due to recession in developed countries and the major importer China has also reduced the volume of trade as government of China started selling cotton from the national reserve to domestic textile mills. Hence,India could export only 30 lakh bales during 2008-09 as against 85 lakh bales in 2007-08.The carry forward stock is all time high of about 70 lakh bales. 

     World cotton production is expected to decline for the third consecutive season to 106.5 million bales during 2009-10 down by 1 per cent. Production is expected to decline in Brazil, China, Uzbekistan and Turkey whereas in India due to high MSP the cotton output may increase significantly (309 lakh bales as against 209 lakh bales in 2008-09). The use of cotton by mills across the world is expected to increase by 2 per cent to 113.5 million bales in 2009-10. Mill use of cotton is expected to increase in China, Pakistan Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam but continue to decline in the US and India. According to South Indian Cotton Association (SICA), US projected its production to 14 million bales with a domestic use of only 3 million bales. Already it has a carry over stock of 6 million bales and its total carry over would be 17 million bales in 2009-2010. Hence decline in area of cotton cultivation or increase in mill use will not be helpful in price boom during the coming season.

     In India, sowing of cotton in the new season normally begins from June onwards, but due to late onset of monsoon, sowing was delayed and commenced from the end of June in Maharastra (normal season: June –August) . Bt cotton has covered 70 per cent of cotton cultivation and the yield is expected to be more than 540 kg per hectare as against 526 kg last year.

     In Tamil Nadu, currently the Masipattam sown cotton is arriving to market and it will be coming till August. The major varieties in this season are Surabhi, MCU-7 and Bt varieties. The market prices are lower than MSP as there is no CCI purchase in Tamil Nadu. The winter cotton sowing will commence from August and arrivals will start from January 2010. Due to labour problem, cotton farmers are shifting to tapioca in Salem district and maize in other districts. 

     Due to last year’s gloomy situation farmers are keen to know the price trend for cotton in the ensuing season. The team led by Dr.N.Ajjan, Consortium Principle Investigator NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has arrived at the conclusion that in 2009-10 with lesser exports anticipated in spite of appreciation of US$ against Indian rupee the price of cotton will revolve around MSP as announced in the last cotton year ie.,Surabhi/MCU5 (32.5-33.5mm) at Rs.3200/quintal, RCH (27.5-28.5mm) at Rs.2850/quintal, LRA5166(26-26.5mm) at Rs.2600/quintal and Hybrid (Bunny) (29.5-30.5mm) at Rs.3000/quintal.

     In case of Tamil Nadu, CCI has not made any procurement during 2008-09 and farmers in this part of the country are deprived of getting MSP for cotton. They are selling at a reduced rate of Rs 100-300 per quintal when compared to MSP. Hence, Government of Tamil Nadu has to make arrangements for procurement of cotton by CCI in Tamil Nadu. 

Is Sunflower losing its shine? (Aug 2009)

     Chithirai (April –May) sown sunflower crop started flowing into the market in Tamil Nadu. Sunflower farmers are in a distress condition as the price ruling over the months is not able to meet out their expectation. To analyze the price trend of arrivals from chitirai-sown sunflower, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell team led by Dr. N. Ajjan, Director, Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made a study. 

     The trader’s survey revealed that the prices of sunflower seeds from the oilyear (Nov- Oct) 2008-09 to till July 2009 are in a declining phase. Sunflower farmers opined that there is a reduction in yield of sunflower due to pest attack during flowering which obviously resulted in poor quality of materials. Normal yield from one acre of sunflower is 1000- 1200 kg per acre of irrigated area, but in this season, the yield obtained was around 700 kg per acre. This will lead to 68 per cent lower arrivals of Chithirai sown sunflower crop than the last year crop (1248 tonnes during July 2009 against arrival of 3980 tonnes during July 2008) in the Vellakoil regulated market. Similarly trade source confirmed that sunflower area declined by 20 per cent in North Karnataka region also. But the short supply will not impact on price due to import of vegetable oils which is one of the measures resorted to control inflation during March 2009. The quantity of crude edible oils imported in the current oil year 2008-09 amounted to 5.53 million metric tonnes within the past eight months while it was 5.61 million metric tonnes for the entire oil year 2007-08. 

     As of now sunflower seed price is hovering around the minimum support price (i.e) Rs 2215 per quintal. Most of the traders and farmers opined that the current price, escalating cost of inputs and low yield due to pests lead to dilemma in continuity of crop in next season. 

     Econometric analysis done on the nine years price data collected from Vellakoil regulated market revealed that the price of sunflower seed for the next three months will be ruling in the range of Rs 20-22 per Kg. With no scope for increase in prices and low quality material due to pest attack farmers are advised to sell sunflower immediately. 

Small Onion: Store or Sell   (sep 2009)

     The price of small onion was Rs.18-19 per kg during April-July, 2009 which was 36 per cent higher than what prevailed during the same period last year. Now in September 2009, onion prices are around Rs.15 per kg due to the arrivals from China to the global markets and pre mature harvest of kharif crop in Tamil Nadu. The export pressure led to arrivals of poor quality produce to the market. This poor quality arrivals influenced the quantity demanded for exports on the downward side and in turn reduced the prices in Dindigul market. 

     Under these circumstances, onion farmers in Tamil Nadu are raising queries in various fora whether the kharif crop will fetch higher prices or not; and whether to sell immediately or store the small onion harvested. To answer these queries, the NAIP-DEMIC (National Agricultural Innovation Project-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made a study. The major markets for small onion namely Ottanchaithram and Dindigul, in Tamil Nadu were selected for the study purpose. 

     It was observed that Tamil Nadu produced about 2.99 lakh tonnes of onion from 0.29 lakh ha in 2008-09. More than 75 per cent of this is constituted by small onion. According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation, Nasik, Maharastra, the area under small onion in 2009 kharif has increased to 13,000 hectares (ha) from 10,800 ha in 2008 which is 20 per cent higher than in the previous year. Since the small onion arrivals from Karnataka has stopped in the early August, the supply from Tamil Nadu will not support the price to decline. Similarly, failure of onion crop in Thailand also favoured India to export more. Trade sources also revealed that exports will pick up after Diwali festival. So far India exported about 17.60 lakh tonnes of onion in 2008-09 which is 37 per cent higher than exports in 2007-08.

     Even though the cost of seed onion is lesser than the bulb sown crop, the good keeping quality and export preference are still keeping the bulb sown crop favourite among the farmers. 

     According to the results of the study, for the next three months (October-December) the prices will hover around Rs. 17-20/kg. The rainfall during harvest in October-November might lead to poor quality bulbs and there could be a loss of 30 per cent of the produce if stored for three months during rainy period. Hence, farmers are advised to sell the produce immediately upon harvest. If they can arrange proper storage facilities avoiding storage losses then they can store the onion and sell during November-December for Rs.19-20 per kg. 

Export Demand likely to Sustain Red Chilli Price (Nov 09)

     With the anticipation of North East Monsoon, the chilli growers are anxious to know whether they can go for sowing chillies in November and in such case what would be the likely price they could get during harvest (i.e) in Jan- Feb 2010. Under this circumstance, NAIP- DEMIC (National Agricultural Innovation Project- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell) functioning at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made a study in the major chilli growing tracts of Tamil Nadu viz., Ramnad, Virudhunagar, Paramakudi and in addition it has discussed with Chennai traders. 

     India is both the largest producer and consumer of red chilli among other major producers in the world. India contributes about 36 per cent to the world chilli production followed by China (11 per cent), Bangladesh (8 per cent), Peru (8 per cent) and Pakistan (6 per cent). In India, Andhra Pradesh (53 per cent) occupies first position followed by Karnataka (13 per cent), Maharastra (9 per cent), Orissa (7 per cent), Tamil Nadu (7 per cent) and Madhya Pradesh (2per cent) in chilli production. 

     Red chilli was cultivated in an area of 0.67 lakh hectares in Tamil Nadu for the year 2007-08 which was 9.83 per cent higher than that during 2006-07. But the area increase in red chilli was not realized in production because the production during 2007-08 was 21 per cent less than the previous year. This was due to the unexpected rainfall during harvest season. Ramnad, Thoothukudi, Perambalur and Virudhunagar districts account for more than two third of the total state production in chilli. Generally, chilli arrivals from all over India hit the market from Mid - October to May end. It begins with the first crop from Madhya Pradesh in the mid of October followed by Karnataka in November, Maharastra in December and Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu in January. The red chilli arrivals will extend till May. 

     For the year 2008-09, the acreage under chilli in Andhra Pradesh was 0.82 lakh hectares compared to 0.88 lakh hectares in the previous year as per trade source. However, the acreage is expected to increase by 10-20 per cent in the current year as the farmers are realizing a higher price from March 2008 onwards. In Karnataka, chilli sowing has already been completed in June and July and the arrivals are expected during November.

     India has immense potential to export different types of chillies required by various markets around the world. Chilli exports from India had been rising over last few years due to increased export demand and short supply from other major producing countries like China and Pakistan. Indian chilli is exported to Sri Lanka, Mexico, US, Nepal, Bangladesh and Gulf countries. As per the latest reports from Spice Board of India, during April-August 2009 India exported 1,66,000 tonnes of chilli valued at Rs.947.35 crore as against 1,76,255 tonnes valued at Rs 940.12 crore during the same period in the previous year. Chilli exports are down in volume by 6 per cent while managing a nominal value increase of 0.8 per cent. This is due to strong demand from traditional buyers like Malaysia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Malaysia is the largest buyer of Indian chilli with a share of 29 per cent out of the total exports from India followed by other traditional buyers like Bangladesh (19 per cent) and Sri Lanka (15 per cent). According to trade sources about 5 lakhs bags (1 bag = 40 kg) has already been exported to Bangladesh and still there are expectations of more demand coming from this country. Thus, the domestic and export demand set to support the prices. 

     With respect to price trend, normally the price of chilli slumps during January to March due to heavy arrivals and thereafter surges during April-May due to domestic demand and slow down in arrivals. Currently the price of Virudhunagar Samba chilli is trading in the range of Rs 4250 – Rs 4500 per quintal in Tamil Nadu. Econometric analysis on twelve years monthly data of Virudhunagar samba chilli market was analyzed in order to discover the price of chilli to be sown in November 2009 and that arrives during January 2010. The results revealed that for the upcoming months (i.e) for January, February 2010, the price of chilli is expected to be in the range of Rs. 4700- Rs. 4800 per quintal. Traders also opined that the price of chilli will not be affected by the selling pressure created by Tamil Nadu and Andhra arrivals due to export demand.

     Hence, Chilli farmers are advised to take up sowing during the North East Monsoon period with better crop management practices so as to realize the better price during the harvest time. The above recommendation holds good under normal north east monsoon rains with total rainfall and number of rainy days remaining at the long period average.


Price forecasts for Karthigaipattam Crops (Dec 2009)

     In Tamil Nadu, Karthigai pattam is an important cropping season as the rainfed cultivation progresses in the State. This year though the North East monsoon is delayed farmers are happy as they received good rainfall. In this season Coriander, Cumbu, Bengal Gram are cultivated in different regions of the State. Hence to facilitate farmers in taking planting decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies(CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the prices of Karthigaipattam crops and gives the following suggestions to farmers.

Bengal Gram

Bengal gram is one of the major rabi pulse crop which contributes 40 per cent of pulse production in India. Even though prices of other pulses are booming up that of bengal gram remains firm because of import subsidy provided by Government of India, imposition of stock limit and lower global prices (US$ 510-US$ 515 per tonne). During 2009, India imported two lakh tonnes of bengal gram mainly from Canada, Iran, Myanmar and Tanzania.

     Sowing of Gram is taken up in November – December and harvested in February- March. During 2007-08, India produced 6.33 million tonnes from an area of 7.49 million hectare. In Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore district occupied 81 per cent (3,831 tonnes) of the crop followed by Dindigul district with a production of 10 per cent (396 tonnes). The import price and monsoon during flowering and pod setting are the major factors deciding production and the price of bengal gram. 

     Trade sources revealed that expected arrivals from other major producing countries during November –December followed by local arrivals during February – March will keep its prices firm. Bengal gram prices prevailed in Udumalpet market for last seven years were collected and analyzed. NAIP-DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price of Bengal gram will hover around Rs.2300-2600 per quintal during February-March, 2010. 

Coriander

     Coriander is one of the important spice crops and seventy per cent of total coriander produced is used for value added spices and oleoresin. In India, coriander is cultivated in about 3.6 lakh hectares with a production of 2.87 lakh tonnes. The price of coriander was Rs.5500 per quintal in Jan 2009 and it stabilized around Rs.4300 per quintal in the past six months. This price is half of coriander price that prevailed in 2008. This is because the crop was good in Rajasthan which occupies 60 per cent of total production of coriander in India. Export of coriander seed has increased from 14,175 MT valued Rs.93.29 crores in April-August 2008 to 21,000 MT valued Rs.104.30 crores in April-August 2009. Usually, the price of coriander is high during September, October. But this year, expecting a good crop in Rajasthan, the stocks were released and there was a decline in price by Rs.300-400 per quintal. In Tamil Nadu, coriander is cultivated in 24748 hectares and Thoothukudi had the maximum area followed by Virudhunagar, Coimbatore and Cuddalore districts. NAIP -DEMIC collected the price data from Virudhunagar market and analyzed and concludes that the price of coriander seed during February, 2010 to April, 2010, ie. During harvest, will be in the range of Rs.4000 to Rs.4200 per quintal.

Cumbu 

     Cumbu is one of the millets grown in rainfed tracts of Tamil Nadu. In India cumbu is cultivated in about 9.50 million hectares with a production of 9.79 million tonnes.. It is grown in an area of about 98000 hectares with a production of 1.24 lakh tonnes in the State and Thoothukudi district has the highest area of 20,965 hectares followed by Villupuram. This year, the area under cumbu has increased in Rajasthan to an extent of 65 lakh hectares which is around 20 lakh hectares more than the targeted area and farmers are expecting the yield to cross 100 lakh tonnes. In Tamil Nadu, due to delayed monsoon, farmers shifted to maize. Also maize fetches a higher price than cumbu by about Rs.100-150 per quintal. One of important cumbu marketing centre is Kovilpatti and hence the prices of Kovilpatti market was analysed .This year the area and production of cumbu would remain the same in Tamil Nadu as last year and the farm gate price of cumbu will be around Rs. 710-750 per quintal during harvest period, ie. February, March 2010.

MAIZE FARMERS ASKED TO HOLD BACK STOCKS (Dec 2009)

     The area under maize in India during kharif 2009 is estimated at 70.47 lakh hectare which is 1.04 per cent up from previous year. Karnataka is the largest producer contributing 18 per cent to the country’s production followed by Andhra Pradesh (16 per cent), Bihar (11 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (8 per cent), Maharashtra (8 per cent), Rajasthan (7 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (6 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (5 per cent). Area under maize in Karnataka during 2009 kharif has increased to 11 lakh hectare and the estimated production is 19 lakh tonnes. Even though maize area has increased excess rain fall caused damage to the standing crop in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh which reduced the crop output. In Karnataka, arrivals have started flowing in the market and this year the crop is procured by Rajasthan and Punjab traders in bulk which reduced the quantity available for Tamil Nadu traders which in turn increased the delivery price at Tamil Nadu to around Rs.950 (12 % moisture) per quintal. 

     In Tamil Nadu around 54 per cent of the maize crop is sown in adi pattam. This year delayed rains in June- July and excess downpour in August-September reduced the sowing of adi pattam maize in Tamil Nadu. Under these circumstances, farmers are raising queries on whether to sell adi pattam maize being harvested now immediately or to store the crop to get better price. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year price prevailed in Udumalpet market and also conducted traders survey in this market.

     Trade sources informed that arrivals from some parts of Tamil Nadu have started but the crop quality is not as expected because of the excess moisture in the grains. Traders are expecting full fledged arrivals from December end. Soon after arrivals poultry firms will procure the harvested maize to build their stocks for the forthcoming months. Hence there are lesser chances for the prices to decline much. Trade sources informed there will be supply crunch after March and the price may go above Rs.1000 since the demand for maize is exceeding the supply.

     Expected reduced arrivals from Tamil Nadu, supply of maize from Karnataka to Northern States and continuous demand for maize in poultry industry will keep the price in higher side. NAIP –DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price of maize will rule around Rs.900 till December, 2009 and Rs.840-Rs.900 per quintal during January – March, 2010 and after March the price will rule above Rs.1000. The crop could be stored for 6 months. The cost for storage is Rs.3 per bag per month. The loss expected during storage is 5kg per bag for six months. Hence the farmers could store the produce and release after March to get better price. Private poultry firms of large size are offering Rs.940 per quintal as on date when delivered to their godowns directly. Farmers are advised to use this opportunity. It is informed that the grains should be bold size with a moisture content of 12 per cent and less when delivery is made to the poultry firms directly. Better prices are offered only when 100 gm of maize grains number around 350 grains or less. One percent market fees will be deducted from the farmers bill.

     Farmers are also advised to go for sowing of maize in Thai pattam (mid January) and they could get a price of more than Rs.1000 per quintal during harvest in May, June, 2010 if the prevailing market sentiments continue.

Groundnut Prices to be Firm - Sell Immediately   (Feb 2010)

     Groundnut, one of the major oilseeds in India was facing a bearish trend for the past one year. The price of groundnut (pods) fluctuated in the range of Rs.2300 to Rs.3000 per quintal. Kharif is the major producing season for groundnut in India. Groundnut production in Kharif (2008-09) was 42.2 lakh tonnes and in 2009-10, the kharif groundnut is estimated as 32.9 lakh tonnes. There is a sharp decline in production by about 20 percent. 

     In Gujarat, which is the major producer of groundnut, it was cultivated in an area of around 18 lakh hectares in 2008-09 and it declined to 16.35 lakh hectares in 2009-10. Area of groundnut declined sharply due to delayed monsoon and shift to cotton crop in Gujarat. Overall groundnut area at national level in Kharif has reduced to 44 lakh hectares in 2009-10 from 53 lakh hectares in the corresponding year. Andhra Pradesh has reported the highest reduction in groundnut acreage.

     Price of all oilseeds including groundnut declined due to import of palmoil .India imported 7 million metric tonnes (MT) of palm oil in 2009 and became world’s largest importer of palmoil. According to Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC), the nut’s direct consumption has increased in dry, salted and packaged forms. About 10 lakh MT of groundnut kernels are being directly consumed. 7 lakh MT usage is for sowing and about 1.50 lakh MT is exported.

     Tamil Nadu covers an area of about five lakh hectares and contributes to about 16 percent of the groundnut production in India. Around 70 per cent of the area is sown as rain-fed crop and the remaining 30 per cent under irrigated conditions. Major groundnut production centres in Tamil Nadu are Cuddalore, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur and Ariyalur districts. According to trade sources, the area under groundnut is decreasing not only in Tamil Nadu but also in other parts of India. This year the yield of groundnut has reduced due to poor distribution of rainfall. In addition the farmers selected maize as the alternative crop for groundnut due to labour shortage. Reduced production, increasing demand and import of substitute oil has created a dilemma among the groundnut farmers whether to hold the stocks or to release it immediately to get maximum profit. NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence cell of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made an analysis on groundnut prices in Tamil Nadu, based on the 15 years price data from Sevur market because it is an important groundnut market in Tamil Nadu. 

     The market survey revealed that the reduction under groundnut area could push the price upward when compared to last year. The trade sources confirmed that higher soybean production will compensate decrease in palmoil production. The stock of palmoil, usage of cotton seed oil and rice bran oil will have a balancing effect in the prices of groundnut oil. The farm gate prices for groundnut pods will revolve around Rs.2900 to 3100 per quintal during February to April and may increase by Rs.100-200 per quintal in May, June 2010 The same trend will be there for groundnut kernels. If the government imposes tariff on import of edible oil, the prices will slightly increase or if it imports more palm oil as last year, the price will slide further. Hence farmers are advised to release their stocks immediately to get better net prices.

Potato farmers advised to take up sowing in Neerbogam (Irrigated) (February -March) (Feb 2010)

     Potato is the world’s number one non-grain food commodity, which occupied 18.19 million hectares with a production of 314.14 million tonnes in the year 2008-09. China is the world’s largest producer contributing 18 per cent to the global production (57.06 million tonnes) followed by India (11 per cent), Russia (9 per cent), Ukraine (6 per cent), United States (6 per cent), Poland (3 per cent) and Belarus (3 per cent). During, 2008 India crossed Russia in potato production and became the world’s second largest producer after China. 

     According to National Horticulture Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), during 2009 India produced 32.73 million tonnes of potato from an area of 18.84 lakh hectares, which is 4 per cent higher than that of previous year. Uttar Pradesh is the largest producer contributing 42 per cent of production (13.6 million tonnes) followed by West Bengal (25 per cent), Punjab (5 per cent), Gujarat (5 per cent), Bihar (5 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (4 per cent) and Assam (3 per cent). 

     Potato is one of the major vegetables widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu and it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiri, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. Dindigul and Nilgiri districts together constitute about 95% of potato area in the state. In Nilgiri district potato is cultivated in three seasons namely Irrigated season / Neer bogam (Feb-April), Kar bogam (June- August) and Kadai bogam (Aug, Sep- Nov, Dec) which are rainfed seasons. 

     According to NHRDF statistics, area and production of potato in Tamil Nadu during 2008-09 have reduced to 0.12 lakh ha and 1.47 lakh tonnes which is 7 per cent and 13 per cent respectively lesser than that of previous year (2007-08). The yield also reduced from 13.36 tonnes /hectare to 12.78 tonnes per hectare. Higher cost of cultivation, labour shortage and arrivals from other States at competitive prices made the Nilgiris farmers to shift the cultivation to other hilly vegetables. 

     Under these circumstances, potato growers in Tamil Nadu are eager to know about the price for the Neerbogam crop, which will be sown in February-March and harvested in May-June, 2010. To answer their queries NAIP-DEMIC functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University had analysed the 18 years prices of potato prevailed in Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society (NCMS) and made a study on the market scenario and price behaviour. 

     According to trade sources, 95 per cent of the potato is produced as Rabi crop in India. Mettupalayam is one of the major trading centers in India. The NCMS and about 100 private commission mundies are functioning in Mettupalayam. Arrivals of potato is high during June to December. 

     Yield reduction due to the mist during vegetative phase of the crop and expected heavy arrivals during January to March from other States at cheaper prices than Nilgiris potato have made the Nilgiri farmers to skip sowing in Kadai bogam (November-December) for the past five years. Kufri Jyoti, Kufri Giriraj and Kufri Swarna are the major verities preferred by farmers in Tamil Nadu. During the lean season (February-March), traders are outsourcing crop from Agra, Hasanpur in Uttar Pradesh, Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kolar, Hasan regions in Karnataka to cater the needs of Tamil Nadu consumers. 

     Analysis of 18 years data revealed that during November 2009, potato prices touched an all time high of Rs.25 per kg and thereafter started declining due to the excess supply from Indore, Kolar and Nainital regions to Mettupalayam. In May-June, 2010 which is the harvest period of neerbogam potato, the prices are likely to be Rs.12-15 per kg as per the results of the analysis made by DEMIC. Expected reduced arrivals from other States during May –June and demand from processed food industry will keep the price in higher side during the above period. Hence, farmers are recommended to take up sowing in Feb-March to get better price during harvest. 

Cotton Prices will be Firm (March 2010)

     India has become the second largest producer of cotton next to China. In the last cotton year (Oct 08 - Sep 09), the price of cotton faced a downward trend due to global recession which led to less exports. Government increased the minimum support price by about 30% and it supported the cotton farmers. The prices were ruling around Minimum Support Price (MSP) announced by Government of India. India's State-run agencies (Cotton Corporation of India and National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India) purchased almost 45% of the country's total production in 2008-09 (Oct-Sep) of about almost 12.8 million bales (1bale=170 kgs) from farmers out of the total output of around 28 million bales.

     But in this cotton year which started from October 2009, the price has seen an upward trend as demand for Indian cotton is rising in the global market due to crop failure in the USA and China and also because the domestic market prices are above the minimum support price. Shankar 6 fetched only Rs.2850 per quintal in 2008-09 but this year the price is Rs.3400-3600 per quintal. Also India’s cotton exports for the marketing year which started from October, 2009, is expected to increase to about 55 lakh bales as compared to 35 lakh bales in the previous year. Since the world is facing economic recession, the export prospects will not exceed 55 lakh bales and already 51 lakh bales for export has been registered.

     India's area under cotton cultivation in 2009-10 has risen to 101 lakh hectares from 94.06 lakh hectares. Gujarat, which is the major cotton producing State has diverted more area to cotton replacing groundnut. Also the cotton production of the country is estimated to be higher than previous year because of higher acreage under cotton cultivation in 2009-10. The output is likely to be about 295 lakh bales this year (Cotton Advisory Board (CAB). Already 200 lakh bales arrived in the market and it is estimated that 22% of cotton is with farmers.
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     In Tamil Nadu, the area has reduced from 1.09 to 0.87 lakh hectares in 2009-10. Farmers are cultivating Bt varieties, for instance Bunny, to a larger extent and also DCH 32. The DCH 32 is a extra long staple variety which fetches Rs.800-Rs.1000 higher than other Bt varieties. Labour problem is said to be the reason for the reduction in area under cotton. As agricultural laborers nowadays prefer working in Hosiery units and in National Rural Employment Guarantee(NREG) scheme a short supply for agricultural labour is witnessed for cotton. The demand from mill side has increased due to improved power position compared to last year. In Tamil Nadu, the arrivals in the markets are comparatively lower than last year and farmers shifted to maize crop due to reduced yield of cotton because of poor rainfall.

     In Tamil Nadu, there is one special season for cotton in Southern belt of Tamil Nadu (Rajapalayam, Virudunagar) and the Cauvery Delta, ie., sowing cotton in Masi pattam (Feb-Mar). Hence to facilitate the cotton farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 15 year prices prevailed in Tirupur market and also conducted traders survey in cotton markets and confirmed that the price of cotton (long staple varieties) will rule around Rs.3300 to Rs.3500 from March 2010- September 2010. Hence, farmers are advised to go for cotton cultivation in masipattam with reduced cost of cultivation. Those farmers having stock on hand are advised to sell their cotton immediately without resorting to storage, since no more price rise is expected. 

Farmers advised to sell coconut immediately upon harvest (March 2010)

     Coconut tree is praised as ‘Kalpavriksha’ because it is used in our country as a source of food, drink, fibre, fuel etc. India, Philippines and Indonesia are the major producers of coconut in the World. Sri Lanka, Mexico, Vietnam, New Guinea and Brazil are the other important producers. Coconut production is shared among the following uses: 47 per cent for edible purpose, 35 per cent for coconut oil, 11 per cent for tender nut and 7 per cent for edible copra. According to the statistics given by Asia Pacific Coconut Community (APCC) India ranked number one in productivity (8,165 nuts per ha) among other coconut growing countries in the world. Rapid increase in productivity made India to become the largest producer in the world. 

     Kerala is the main coconut growing state with an area of 0.87 million hectare followed by Karnataka (0.40 million ha) and Tamil Nadu (0.37 million hectare) contributing 38 percent, 10 per cent and 34 per cent respectively to its total production. Among the states Tamil Nadu has the highest productivity (14495 nuts/ha) followed by Andhra Pradesh (12629 nuts/ha). According to trade sources Tamil Nadu is likely to emerge as the largest producer since the area under coconut is decreasing in Kerala and productivity increases in Tamil Nadu helped to stay competitive against others. In Tamil Nadu coconut is grown in Coimbatore, Thanjavur, Dindigul, Kanniyakumari, Vellore, Erode, Theni, Tirunelveli, Krishnagiri, Salem and Madurai districts. The area under coconut in these districts account for 80 per cent of the total area under this crop.

      Coconut Farmers in Tamil Nadu raised queries whether the increased import of palm oil will reduce the coconut price in the forthcoming months or not and whether to sell immediately or store the nuts harvested. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year prices prevailed in Pollachi market and also conducted traders surveys in Pollachi and Avalpunthurai markets.

     Even though only 35 per cent of the coconut produced in the country is used for extraction of oil, the entire coconut-based economic activities are dictated by the price of coconut oil. Coconut oil prices are directly influenced by import quantity of palm oil. From November, 2009 to January, 2010 India imported 14, 39,705 tonnes of crude palm oil which is 2 per cent higher than the same period last year. Solvent Extractors’ Association predicted that India will produce 6.6 lakh tonnes of copra and 4.3 lakh tonnes of coconut oil during 2009-10 which is 1.5 per cent higher than that of the previous year. 

     Avalpunthurai Regulated market is considered as one of the largest market centres for copra in Tamil Nadu. Farmers are taking copra to this regulated market in large quantities. Oil millers are procuring copra directly from there. Now the traders are procuring copra at Rs.31 per kg from farmers. The copra is graded based on the colour and thickness of the nut. Trade sources reported that the price for black nut is higher than the white one. The black nut is predominantly used for copra production. Coconut is marketed on weight and number basis. Pollachi coconut fetches premium price due to its better quality and higher oil content. Copra recovery from coconut is 17 percent and oil recovery is 60-65 per cent from copra. 

     Demand for tender coconut is also in increasing trend especially in cities like Coimbatore, Madurai, Trichy and Chennai. Farmers prefer to plant short term varieties which bear nuts within three years for tender coconut. 
Trade sources revealed that arrivals of coconut will be high during Feb –June and lean during July –December. Coconut from Tamil Nadu is procured by traders in Uttarpradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala. Copra from Karnataka is also sold in Tamil Nadu. 

     Expected arrivals of coconut in March- June coupled with duty free import of palm oil will keep the price in downside during March-June, 2010. At the same time increasing demand for tender coconut during summer months and stable demand for nuts in forthcoming months will influence the price not to decline much. DEMIC analysis confirmed that the farm level price will rule around Rs.4.25 to 4.80 per nut during March- June, 2010. There is no scope for increase in prices upto June. Hence farmers are advised sell the harvested nuts immediately without resort to storage.

Sunflower prices to rule firm  (April 2010)

      Sunflower is a major source of vegetable oil in the world. Europe, Russia, Ukraine, USA, Argentina, India and China are the major producers of sunflower in the World. Progressive planting report (week ending February 25, 2010) of Government of India confirmed that area under Rabi season oilseeds (mainly rapeseed, peanut, and sunflower), was down by 4 percent (8.2 million hectares), with most of the decline confined to sunflower and mustard crop. Due to shift in acreage to Rabi grown cereals, pulses and other remunerative crops, area under sunflower was down by 23 percent. Consequently, planting area and production of sunflower oilseed in 2009-10 is revised down to 1.4 million hectares and 820,000 tonnes respectively. 

     The major states growing sunflower are Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Haryana. Karnataka occupies the first position in production (46.46%), followed by Andhra Pradesh (31.31%), Maharashtra (14%), Tamil Nadu (1.01%) and Haryana (1.01%). In Tamil Nadu the sunflower seed production is around 0.48 lakh tonnes from an area of 0.26 lakh hectares. Erode, Dindigul, Karur, Tiruchirapalli, Villupuram and Dharmapuri districts are the major production belts contributing about 82 per cent of the total sunflower production of the state. The major growing seasons of sunflower in Tamil Nadu are Thaipattam (January -February) and Adipattam (August - September) and to a certain extent the Karthigaipattam. The Karthigai (November –December) sown crop presently being harvested stage and has started flowing into the market. The months of peak arrivals are March to June and lean arrivals are July to September.

     According to the trade sources the edible oil import may touch 8.6 million tonnes for 2009-10. It includes 6.95 million tonnes of palm oil, 1 million tonnes of soya oil, 600,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 40,000 tonnes of other edible oils. Due to the above facts, sunflower farmers in Tamil Nadu raised queries whether the increased import of edible oil will reduce the sunflower price in the forthcoming months or not and whether to sell immediately or store the seed harvested. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year prices prevailed in Vellakovil market.

     Sunflower farmers normally get 1000-1200 kg of sunflower seed per acre in irrigated area. But in this season, the yield obtained was around 650-700 kg per acre due to the non-availability of quality seeds, pest attacks, irregular power supply and labour shortage. Reduction in the area and decline in productivity leads to the short supply. During, March 2010 Vellakovil regulated market received only 497 tonnes. This is a very short supply when compared to last year same period i.e March 2009 when sunflower seed arrivals at Vellakovil market was 2825 tonnes. In spite of this short supply the prices revolve around Rs.21 only per Kg. This may be due to the increasing dependence on imported oils for meeting domestic consumption demand. Private traders continued to buy large quantities of vegetable oils in recent months due to the lower international prices of vegetable oils. For example, the crude palm oil imports during the first four months of the current oil year were reported at 23.99 lakh tonnes as compared to 23.34 lakh tonnes during the same period last year with a marginal rise. Overall imports of vegetable oils during the first four month of the current oil year (November 2009-October 2010) was reported at 31.15 lakh tonnes, a rise of 5.5 per cent from 29.52 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In India edible oil supply is expected to dip by 4% in the oil year ending October 2010. Considering the above facts, short supply of Sunflower seed may not impact on the price on the upward direction. Results of the econometric analysis also revealed that the price of sunflower seed for the next three months will be ruling in the range of Rs 20-22 per kg. There is little chance for increase in prices. Hence, farmers are recommended to sell sunflower upon harvest without resorting to storage. They are also advised to sell through regulated markets in the nearby area.

FARMERS ADVISED TO SELL BLACKGRAM UPON HARVEST (May 2010)

     Black gram or Urad is one of the important pulse crops which occupies a unique position in Indian agriculture. It is a rich source of protein. India is the largest producer of black gram followed by Myanmar and Thailand. At the same time India is a net importer of blackgram. Major importing countries of black gram are India, China, Pakistan and Japan. The major black gram exporting countries are Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. 

     In India black gram occupied an area of 1.92 million hectares and produced 1.11 million tonnes during 2008-09. Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh are the major producing States which totally accounts for nearly 62 per cent of production. 

     In Tamil Nadu, black gram is grown during Adipattam (June-Aug), Puratasipattam (Sep-Nov), Thaipattam (Jan-Feb) and summer season (Feb-Mar).It occupies 3.41 lakh hectares with a production of 1.2 lakh tonnes during 2007-08. It is extensively grown in Thanjavur, Kumbakonam, Thirunelveli and Kovilpatti regions. Major trading centres for black gram in Tamil Nadu are Thanjavur, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Salem and Chennai. 

     In Tamil Nadu, the peak period of blackgram arrivals to market is during April-May, even though it starts flowing to the market from January onwards. This year, due to insufficient rainfall during growing seasons the arrivals started only from April first week and may prolong upto August. It is reported that Tamil Nadu varieties are highly preferred by consumers than imported varieties because of their flour content and taste.

     Higher variability in farm harvest price during past two months created confusion among the black gram farmers whether the current crop will fetch a higher price or not; and whether to sell immediately or store the produce harvested. In order to facilitate the farmers to take a better decision, the NAIP-DEMIC (National Agricultural Innovation Project-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University made a study in Virudhunagar and Villupuram markets. Econometric analysis of past ten years price data collected from Villupuram market revealed that the farm gate price of black gram during May to July 2010 will be in the range of Rs.4600-5200 per quintal if current market sentiments continue. 

     If the policies favoured import of pulses to meet demand and supply imbalance the farm harvest price may likely to decrease. Hence farmers are advised to sell immediately upon harvest without resorting to storage. 

Farmers Advised to Sell Gingelly - Immediately  (May 2010)

     Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU) advises farmers to sell their gingelly produce immediately.

     Gingelly (Sesame) is an important edible oilseed in India. India exports gingelly seeds to China, Holland, USA, Germany, Turkey, The Netherlands, Hong Kong, Israel, UK, UAE, etc. Globally China and India are the major gingelly producers. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu put together constitutes nearly 72 per cent of total area and 58 percent of total production of gingelly in the country.

     The production of gingelly in 2009-10 is estimated to be 7.6 lakh tones which is higher than last year (2008-09) production of 5.8 lakh tones. Gujarat is the major gingelly producing State in India. Trade sources confirmed that gingelly production in Gujarat is expected to increase to 1.4 lakh tones from 0.8 lakh tones in 2008-09. This may be due to higher international price. But export of edible oil is banned till September 2010 from India. This ban has little impact on price of gingelly due to its minimum share of gingelly oil in the export oil basket.

     Export of gingelly seeds from India depends on China’s production prospects. This year the crop prospects in China and Africa appears to be good. Hence exports from India pegged around 1.5-2.3 lakh tones in the form of Mechanically Hulled Sesame Seed (MHSS) and Natural White Sesame Seed (NWSS).

     In Tamil Nadu, the area under gingelly accounts for about 0.65 lakh hectares (ha). Not only has the area under gingelly declined over years (0.84 lakh hectares in 2001-02) and also the yield declined from 548 kg/ha in 2000-01 to 469kg/ha in 2008-09 . Currently Masipattam sown (Feb-March) irrigated gingelly crop starts arriving to the market .The peak arrivals start from April to June .According to market sources, the quality of the gingelly is also good compared to rainfed Gingelly. Red gingelly accounted more than 75 per cent of total gingelly trade. White type is mostly exported and utilized for table and confectionary purposes. Traders’ survey results confirmed that oil millers outsourced gingelly during July-September from Karnataka, during November, December from Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and during January – February from Andhra Pradesh, Orissa. Oil millers blend gingelly procured from others States with Tamil Nadu product to get good quality oil. 

     In order to facilitate gingelly farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 15 year prices prevailed in Sivagiri market .The analysis was done in the background of stable demand for gingelly oil and international and domestic good crop prospects and continuous supply of gingelly from other States. Price analysis results indicated that the price would be around Rs. 41-43 per kg in the forth coming months (May-August 2010) and price is likely to increase only in September, October 2010. But storage for three months will detoriate the quality of the produce hence, farmers are advised to sell their gingelly stocks immediately, and also recommended to dispose via Regulated markets to get the afore said price.

Farm level prices of small onion to increase in Tamil Nadu (May 2010)

     India produced 77.29 lakh tonnes of onion from an area of 5.54 lakh ha during 2008-09. This includes both Bellary and Small Onion. Small onion is produced only in southern states viz., Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. As per other sources, Tamil Nadu had produced 3.20 lakh tonnes of onion from an area of 0.30 lakh ha with a productivity of 10.51 tonnes per ha during 2008-09. More than 80 per cent of this production is constituted by small onion. 

     Since 23 per cent of the country’s production goes for export (includes Bellary and Small Onion), the domestic price is highly influenced by the Minimum Export Price (MEP). During November, 2009 small onion prices touched Rs.22 per kg. To control the domestic price rise and to increase the domestic supply the MEP for southern varieties of onion for November, 2009 was increased to US $ 520 per metric tonne from US $ 430 per metric tonne in October, 2009. Increased supply from major producing States in March-April (Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh) and increased MEP helped to increase the domestic supply which led to stabilize the price around Rs.10 per kg during April, 2010 at farm level.

     The above fluctuations in price created panic among small onion farmers in Tamil Nadu and they raised queries on whether to sell the harvested crop immediately or to store the bulbs harvested. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore analyzed the past 10 year prices prevailed in Dindigul market and also conducted traders surveys in Dindigul and Ottanchathiram markets.

     Trade sources reported that the arrivals from Karnataka has come to an end by April. The harvesting of Thai pattam crop in Tamil Nadu has started just now. According to National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation (NAFED) release the MEP for southern varieties has been reduced to US $ 415 per MT for April, 2010. Reduced MEP and summer showers during harvesting time in some parts of Tamil Nadu will help the price to move in upward direction. NAIP-DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price will rule around Rs.13-15 per kg at farm level during May-June, 2010 for better quality bulbs. It will be Rs.10-12 per kg for average quality. Bigger bulbs with good colour and less moisture content are characterized as better quality and others come under average quality. If there is continued heavy rainfall in Palladam, Tiruppur, Udumalpet and Coimbatore area during the current harvesting season then there is a likelihood increase in farm level prices beyond Rs.15/kg. Trade sources reported that the crop harvested is not suited for storage because of the higher temperature with low air flow. The crop loss expected during storage is more than 30 per cent. Since storage is not a feasible option farmers can immediately sell the crop without resorting to storage. 

     The farmers are also recommended to sow small onion in May-June ie. current season to get better price in August-September, 2010. 

Sell Potato Immediately on Harvest  (Jun 2010)

     Potato is the world’s number one non-grain food commodity which occupied 18.19 million hectares with a production of 314.14 million tonnes. China is the world’s largest producer, contributing 18 per cent of global production (57.06 million tonnes) followed by India (11 per cent), Russia (9 per cent), Ukraine (6 per cent), United States (6 per cent), Poland (3 per cent) and Belarus (3 per cent). During, 2008 India defeated Russia’s position in potato production and became the world’s second largest producer after China. 

     According to National Horticulture Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), during 2009 India produced 32.73 million tonnes of potato from an area of 18.84 lakh hectares, which is 4 per cent higher than that of previous year in India. Uttar Pradesh is the largest producer, contributing 42 per cent of production (13.6 million tonnes) followed by West Bengal (25 per cent), Punjab (5 per cent), Gujarat (5 per cent), Bihar (5 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (4 per cent) and Assam (3 per cent). 

     Potato is one of the major vegetables widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu and it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. Dindigul and Nilgiri districts together constituted about 95 percent of potato area in the state. In Nilgiri district potato is cultivated in three seasons namly Irrigated seasons/ Neer bogam (Feb-April), Kar bogam (June-August) and Kadai bogam (August, September - November, December) which are Rainfed seasons and Neer bogam is one of the important seasons . 

     Potatoes can be stored in cold storage for about five to six months. In Mettupalayam, cold storage godowns are available. Potatoes come from other states like Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh and stored in cold storage only for seed purpose.

     Peak period of storage is January to May and the stock is released during June-July. Potatoes grown in Nilgiri district are stored to a lesser extent only. Farmers are mainly following storage practices for seed purpose. Most of the farmers are not storing due to lack of awareness. The Potatoes from Nilgiri district fetch higher price than potatoes from other states because of superior quality and taste and preference.

     Mettupalayam is one of the major trading centres in India. The Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society (NCMS) and about 100 private commission mandies are functioning in Mettupalayam. Nearly one third of potato is traded through Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society. Potatoes from Nilgiri and other districts are traded through both NCMS private mandies. The arrival of potato is high during the months of June to December. Peak arrival is during August and September.

     Farmers are now harvesting the neer bogam sown potato. They have to take a decision whether to sell potato immediately on harvest or keep it stored for some time to get better prices. To help them to take a right decision the NAIP – Domestic Export Market Intelligence Centre (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University had analyzed the 20 years prices of potato that prevailed during 1990-2010 in Nilgiris Co-Operative Marketing Society in Mettupalayam and made a study on the market scenario and price behaviour. 

     Keeping in view the price analysis and opinion survey of the traders, it is expected that during the months of June-July, 2010 which is the main harvest period of irrigated potato, the prices are likely to be Rs.620-700 per bag (45kg). After July 2010, the prices are likely to decrease. Hence farmers are advised to sell the neerbogam harvested potato in June, July itself for higher prices without going for storage

Farmers advised to take up sowing of small onion  (Jul 2010)

     Onion is the second largest vegetable crop in India. It occupies around 10.5 per cent of vegetable production in our country. According to National Horticulture Board during 2008-09 India produced 135.65 lakh tonnes of onion from an area of 8.34 lakh hectares. Maharashtra (28.9 per cent) occupies the first position followed by Karnataka (22.35 per cent), Gujarat (10.39 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (6.5 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (4.88 per cent), Rajasthan (2.72 per cent) and Haryana (2.56 per cent) in production of onion. India exported 18.73 lakh tonnes of onion in 2009-10. Both production and exports comprised of bellary and small onion. 

     Tamil Nadu produced 3.05 lakh tonnes of onion from an area of 0.35 lakh hectares. Perambalur district leads the production with a share of 24.6 per cent followed by Trichy (14.2 per cent), Coimbatore (13.7 per cent) and Erode (10.8 per cent) districts. Small onion constitutes more than 3/4th of the production. 
Small onion price increased from Rs.12 per Kg in May, 2010 to Rs. 16 per kg in June, 2010. Farmers in Tamil Nadu are indecisive to sow the onion in the forthcoming season. Farmers are anxious to know whether the same increasing trend will prevail for the crop to be sown in July, 2010 which will flow to the market in October-November. To answer these queries NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the past 10 year price of onion by conducting surveys in Dindigul and Ottanchathiram markets. 

     Karnataka is the second largest producer of onion in the country. Trade sources reported that arrivals from Karnataka will be in the months of April, May, June, September and October. Since Karnataka is the major competitor for small onion, arrivals from Karnataka decide the onion price in Tamil Nadu. The current sown crop will come to market in October- November. The monsoon rain is another factor that influences the price. 

     Even though there will be rain in October – November, festive demand, discontinued arrivals from Karnataka and export demand will keep the price on the upward side. DEMIC analysis confirm that the prices will rule around Rs.13-16 per kg for good quality bulbs and Rs 10-13 for average quality in October-November, 2010. Hence the farmers are advised to take up sowing in the forthcoming season. Farmers are also recommended to sow the seed crop to reduce the cost of cultivation. But when seed crop is used the produce cannot be stored for a long time. 

Price Forecast for Adipattam crops (Aug 2010)

     In Tamil Nadu, Adipattam is an important cropping season under rainfed system. This year South West monsoon is forecasted to be normal. The major crops grown during this season are cereals, oil seeds and vegetables. To facilitate farmers in taking planting decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has made price analysis and market survey for important agricultural commodities to help farmers with regard to sowing for different crops based on the prices that might prevail during harvest of the same. 

Maize 

     International Grains Council predicted that world will produce 804 million tonnes of maize in 2009-10 which is 2 per cent higher than the previous year production. The demand is predicted at 818 million tonnes which is 44 per cent higher than the previous year. In India the area covered under kharif, 2010 is estimated at 27.97 lakh hectares which is 2.1 per cent lesser than the same period last year. The reasons are delayed monsoon in Uttar Pradesh, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka which are the major producers of the crop. The short fall in area in the above states are compensated by lift in area under maize in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. 

     In Tamil Nadu, price of maize crossed Rs.1,100 per quintal in July, 2010. Farmers are eager to know about the price that could prevail for the adipattam crop which will come to market in October-November, 2010. Trade sources reported that the same trend will continue up to August end when the new crop arrivals from Karnataka will flow to the market. After that the price will decline below Rs.1000 per quintal.
 
     Under these circumstances, DEMIC econometric analysis done with ten years price data of Udumalpet market results confirmed that the price of maize will be around Rs.850-950 per quintal for the adipattam sown crop, which comes to the market from October – December, 2010. The continuous demand for maize in poultry industry and lesser predicted area in the kharif will help the prices to rule around higher side. Based on the above, farmers in Tamil Nadu are recommended to go for maize sowing in the ensuing season. They are advised to sow varieties/ hybrids with bold grains to fetch better prices. If the approximate number in 100 gram of maize grain is less than 350, higher prices could be received by the farmers.

Groundnut

     Oilseed sector in India is in a mystified state because of the 125 lakh tonnes of uncrushed oilseed stock on one side and increased import of palmoil and reduced oilmeal export and ban of edible oil export on the otherside. 

     Groundnut, which is one of the important oilseeds crop of India is facing a declining trend in area as the rainfall and price prospects favour cotton in Gujarat which is the main producer of groundnut. In last kharif season, 52.89 lakh hectares across the country was under groundnut in which Gujarat accounted for 18 lakh hectares. This year about 15-20 percent decline in groundnut area is expected. But in Tamil Nadu, the area (around 5 lakh hectares) under groundnut is estimated to be stable and yield prospects are expected to be good. Inspite of huge stocks and import of oil, usage of nearly 10 lakh metric tonnes of groundnut for table purpose and limited stock and demand in festive season gives positive sign that the prices of groundnut will be revolving around Rs.2900-3200 per quintal during September to December 2010 .Hence farmers are advised to sow groundnut in Adipattam with proper seed treatment and providing irrigation at the time of flowering and pod formation which will increase the yield.

Gingelly

     Production of gingelly, the premium oilseed in Rabi was 3.3 lakh tonnes which was higher than last year Rabi crop (2.8 lakh tonnes). This year, gingelly crop in Africa and China which are the major producing and consuming countries are good and hence there is less import demand from China. Also, Andhra Pradesh harvested a good crop and in Karnataka, the crop is good and arrivals are expected from this month. West Bengal crop is also arriving in the market but the quality is poor and fetches only less price. Farmers in Erode, Tiruchy, Perambalur, Villupuram sow one more crop of gingelly in July-August and arrivals will reach market in October, November. The harvest price of red gingelly will be Rs.37-40 per kg during September to December 2010 and white gingelly will fetch around Rs.48-50 per kg. Based an the above prices, farmers could take their sowing decisions on gingelly for Adipattam. Since there is a good crop in Karnataka which started arriving in the market price will decline in July and hence farmers are advised to sell the stocks that they have now. Also farmers who sow gingelly should do proper thinning and use direct fertilizers to get better yield.

COCONUT PRICES AT FARM LEVEL TO INCREASE  (Aug 2010)

     Coconut tree is praised as “Tree of Heaven” because of its multiple uses. It is cultivated in 93 countries in the world in an area of 13 million (ha), with an annual production of 57.94 billion nuts. Among the major growing countries three fourth of the production is from India, Indonesia and Philippines. Out of the total production around 48 per cent is used for edible purpose, 35 percent for milling, 11 percent used for tender nut and remaining 6 percent for the manufacture of non traditional products, cultural and social purposes.

     According to Asia Pacific Coconut Community (APCC) India ranked first in productivity (8,165 nuts per ha) in the world with 20 percent of total production. It contributes ` 7,000 crores annually to the national GDP and earns ` 250 crores of foreign exchange. 

     The major coconut growing state in the country is Kerala with an area of 0.87 million ha followed by Karnataka (0.40 million ha) and Tamil Nadu (0.37 million ha). From that area Tamil Nadu contributed 34 percent in total production with higher productivity of 14,495 nuts per ha. Coimbatore, Thanjavur, Dindigul, Kanyakumari, Vellore, Erode, Theni, Tirunelveli, Krishnagiri, Salem and Madurai districts are the major coconut growing areas, accounting for 80 per cent of the total area in Tamil Nadu.

     Coconut farmers like to know whether the harvests being made would get a good price or not. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year prices that prevailed in Pollachi market. It also conducted trader surveys in Pollachi and Avalpunthurai markets. 

      Only 35 percent of coconut produced in our country is used for extraction of oil but the entire coconut based economic activities are dictated by the price of coconut oil. Due to the import of more than 80 lakh tonnes of edible oil in the last oil year, the price of edible oilseeds in India has stagnated or showing a downward trend. Solvent Extractors’ Association of India predicted that India will produce 6.6 lakh tonnes of copra and 4.3 lakh tonnes of coconut oil during 2009-10 which is 1.5 per cent higher than that of the previous year. 

     Coconut is marketed on weight and number basis. Pollachi coconut fetches premium price due to its better quality and higher oil content. Copra recovery from coconut is 17 percent and oil recovery is 60-65 per cent from copra.

     Trade sources revealed that arrivals of coconut will be high during February –June and less during July –December. NAIP - DEMIC analysis confirmed that the prices of coconut start increasing after July 2010 due to the short supply and festival demand. According to trade sources, Traders from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala sourced out our nuts in the next four months to meet the festival demand. The results showed that the farm level price at Pollachi area would be ` 5 -5.5 per nut during August - September and ` 5.75 to 6.00 in October – November 2010. In other markets in Tamil Nadu the prices will be lower to a certain extent, when compared to Pollachi. Farmers are recommended to have their harvesting plans taking into account the above price forecast.

Cotton Price to Rule Firm (Aug 2010)

     Cotton farmers are happy in this cotton year (October 2009-September 2010) as the prices are favorable. In March 2010, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University forecasted that price of cotton (long staple varieties) will rule around Rs.3,300 to Rs.3,500 between March 2010 and September 2010. This perfectly matched with the real time prices. 

     According to International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC) in the coming cotton year (2010-11), the world cotton production is expected to decrease by around 5 per cent to 21.86 million tonnes as against 23.35 million tones in 2009-10. World cotton acreage during 2010-11 is estimated to be 29.94 million hectares as against 30.67 million hectares during 2009-10. Global cotton mill use is forecast to grow by 3% in 2010-11 to 24.46 million tonnes as against 23.39 millions tonnes in 2009-10. 

     According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast, India’s cotton production may increase to a record of 295 lakh bales in 2010-11 assuming normal 2010 monsoon. The area under cotton is forecast to increase to a record 103.29 lakh hectares from 94.06 lakh hectare. In major cotton producing States such as Gujarat and Maharahstra, the area under cotton increased by about 25-30 per cent than last year. Cotton consumption in the marketing year 2010-11 (August to July) is estimated to increase to 250 lakh bales on expected domestic demand for textiles and improvement in cotton textiles exports. Export registered 83 lakh bales in 2009-10 which was only 35 lakh bales in 2008-09. This was because of higher international price, the average Cotlook A Index was at 78.00 US Cents/lb (61 US Cents per lb in previous year). 

     In Tamil Nadu which is the largest consumer of raw cotton (60-65 per cent) in India, the area under cotton is estimated to remain the same (1.04 lakh hectares) and production will be around 5 lakh bales. The crop is sown in August and harvested in January-February. If there is better or belated rainfall, the farmers will tend to cultivate cotton as they have received a good price in the last season. Last year (2009), in July the price of Bunny cotton was Rs.2,800 and this year it is Rs. 3,300- Rs.3,600 per quintal. To facilitate the cotton farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) analyzed the past 15 year prices prevailed in Tirupur and Konganapuram markets and also conducted Traders survey in cotton markets and confirmed that the price of cotton (long staple varieties) will rule around Rs.3,100 to Rs.3,300 per quintal from November 2010- March 2011. Hence, farmers are advised to go for cotton cultivation in Puratasi pattam managing the whitefly menace with integrated pest management. If the exports are increased then there is a likelihood of increase in above prices.

Sunflower to fetch better price (Aug 2010)

     Sunflower is one of the major edible vegetable oils consumed throughout the globe. The oil is used for culinary purposes, in the preparation of vanaspati and in the manufacture of soaps and cosmetics. The oil cake contains 40-44 per cent high quality protein which is ideally suited for poultry and livestock rations. Russia, Ukraine, USA, Argentina, India and China are the major producers of sunflower in the World. This oil accounts for 8% of the world consumption of vegetable oils.
 
     World sunflower area accounts for 25.02 million hectares with a production of 35.24 million tonnes. Major cultivating countries are Russia (23.90%), Ukraine (17.10%), Argentina (10.30%), India (8.19%), China (4.16%), and USA (3.87%). 

     In India, during 2008-2009 sunflower was cultivated in 1.83 million hectares with a production of 1.25 million tonnes and productivity of 683 Kg/ hectare. Karnataka occupies the first position in production (46.46%), followed by Andhra Pradesh (31.31%), Maharashtra (14%), Tamil Nadu (1.01%), Punjab (1.01 %) and Haryana (1.01%). The major trading centers for sunflower oil are Mumbai, Chennai, and Hyderabad. In Tamil Nadu the sunflower seed production is around 0.48 lakh tonnes from an area of 0.26 lakh hectares. Erode, Karur, Dindigul, Tiruchirapalli, Villupuram, Thirunelveli and Dharmapuri districts are the major production belts contributing about 82 per cent of the total sunflower production of the state. 

     In these areas the crop is raised in two seasons viz. Karthigai pattam (October-November) and Chitrai pattam (April-May). The commodity trading is prominent in the peak seasons viz. March – May and June – August. Chithirai (April –May) sown sunflower crop started flowing into the markets in Tamil Nadu. The major market centres of the state are Vellakovil, Moolanur and Kodumudi. 

     According to trade sources the edible oil import may touch 8.6 million tonnes for 2009-10. It includes 6.95 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.0 million tonne of Soya oil, 0.6 million tonne of sunflower oil and 0.04 tonne of other edible oils. Due to the above facts, sunflower farmers in Tamil Nadu have raised queries whether the increased import of edible oil will reduce the sunflower price in the forthcoming months or not and whether to sell immediately or store the produce. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year prices prevailed in Vellakovil market.

     Normal yield from one acre of sunflower is 800 -1,100 kg per acre in irrigated area. But in this season, the yield obtained was around 450-500 kg per acre due to the non-availability of quality seeds, pest attack, labour shortage and cultivation of sunflower in both the seasons. Results of the econometric analysis also revealed that the average price of sunflower seed for the next three months will be ruling in the range of around `.23-26/kg. For best quality seeds the maximum price would be `.30/ kg. Farmers could get these prices during September- October 2010. In November there is a likelihood of decrease in prices. Hence farmers are recommended to sell upon harvest without going for storage. 

Farmers advised to sell Cardamom before November-2010 (Sep 2010)

     Cardamom is known as Queen of Spices and also the third most expensive spice in the world (after saffron and vanilla). The commercial part of cardamom is the fruit (capsule) of the plant that is used as a spice and flavoring agent. It is considered to be a versatile spice, as it is used in both sweet and salty foods. Oil from the seeds and the leftover resin is used in processed foods, tonics, liquors and perfumes. The fruit also finds significant usage in ayurvedic medicines.

     Cardamom is generally produced in the tropical regions of the world. The total world production of this spice is around 36,000 tonnes per annum. The largest producing country is Guatemala followed by India. In India the production of cardamom is 14,000 tonnes. Idukki district in Kerala alone contributing to 12,000 tonnes during 2009-10. According to estimates by experts and growers, 30 per cent drop in production is expected during 2009-10. Over 90 per cent production is estimated to be absorbed in the local market and on the other hand the current domestic demand for small cardamom has been estimated at 11,000 tonnes. India is having a carry forward stock of around 1,500 tonnes. 

     North India is the main market for cardamom produced in the country. Normally domestic demand goes up during the major festival season such as Diwali and Ramzan. Colour, size and aroma are the major variables that decide the cardamom prices in Indian market. Cardamom price in India is influenced by the Guatemala production scenario.

     There is an indication of a substantial reduction of cardamom production in Guatemala during 2009-10 due to adverse weather conditions. This happens to be more favourable to Indian growers. The cardamom harvest season in India is from August to March while the peak harvest season is from October to December. The lean arrival of cardamom is from January to May. Bodinayakanur is one of the major trading centres for cardamom in Tamil Nadu. The auction prices consistently remained high from June onwards due to less arrival. 

     In this background the NAIP – Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the past 13 year prices prevailed in Bodinayakanur market and also conducted traders survey. The results indicated that the best grade Alleppey Green Extra Bold (AGEB) cardamom would fetch around Rs.1650 per kg in September and around Rs.1,670 per kg in October 2010. From November onwards the prices are likely to decline. Hence farmers are advised to sell cardamom before November-2010 for better prices and have their harvesting plans accordingly.

Red Chilli to fetch `35-37 per kg on harvest  (Oct 2010)

     Red chilli is one of the major commercial crops in the world. India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of chillies in the world. Around 90 per cent of India’s production is consumed within in the country. In the world, India ranks first in chilli production followed by China, Peru, Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh. As per the report of Spices Board of India, export of Chillies was 8.5 per cent up in volume and 19.4 per cent in value in 2008-09 comparing 2009-10. Chillies contributed about 43% of the total export of the spices in the year 2009-10. India exports chillies mainly to Malaysia (22%), Sri Lanka (17%), Bangladesh (14%), UAE (11%), USA (8%) and Indonesia (5%). According to the latest report from the Spices Board during April – August 2010, India exported 1.02 lakh tonnes of chillies which is 35 per cent more than the same period in previous year.

     India had the largest area (nearly 8 lakh hectares) of chillies with a production of around 12.8 lakh tonnes. Andhra Pradesh occupies the first position in chilli production (60%) followed by Karnataka (11%), West Bengal (7%), Orissa (5%), Madhya Pradesh (3%), Maharashtra (3%) and Tamil Nadu (2.6%) in chillies production. In Tamil Nadu, it was cultivated in 0.67 lakh hectares during 2007-2008, with a production of 0.34 lakh tonnes and productivity of 506 kg/ha. Ramanathapuram, Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Sivagangai and Dindigal districts are the major chilli growing areas of Tamil Nadu. Sowing of chillies starts after the onset of North-East monsoon (Mid-October to November end). Generally, chilli arrivals from all over India hits the market from Mid- October to May end. It begins with the first crop from Madhya Pradesh, followed by Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. 

     According to Andhra Pradesh Ministry of Agriculture, chilli is being grown in an area of 1.10 lakh hectares in 2010 - 11. It is 29 per cent lower than the previous year in the state. Due to increased cold storage capacity in Andhra Pradesh, carryover stocks are more this year. Compared to 0.8 lakh tonnes last year, this year’s stocks are around 5.5 lakh tonnes. In Karnataka, many farmers are expected to shift the area from Chilli to Maize and Cotton, the major competing crops in that region. Hence, the production and in turn the market arrivals of chilli in Karnataka is expected to be less during this season. 

     Currently the price of Virudhunagar Samba chilli is trading in the range of ` 3000 - `3500 per quintal for Non A/C and ` 4000- ` 4500 per quintal for A/C crop in Tamil Nadu. Farmers in Tamil Nadu in the chilli belt are eager to know whether to grow chilli in the ensuing season or to go for some other crops. In order to guide the farmers to take a right decision on sowing, the NAIP funded Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore had econometrically analyzed the monthly data of samba chilli prices that prevailed in the last thirteen years in Virudhunagar market. The results revealed that for the forthcoming months (i.e.) for February - March 2011, the price of new chillies coming to the market is expected to be in the range of `3500 - `3700 per quintal. Hence, farmers are advised to take up the sowing during the North East monsoon period based on the above price.

Turmeric prices to Decline  (Nov 2010)

     Turmeric prices in Tamil Nadu as well as whole of India had witnessed a steep increase for the past 18 months. In April 2009 it was Rs.5,200 per quintal, in April 2010 it increased to Rs.12,500 and as on October 2010 it hovers around Rs.14, 000/ quintal. Farmers, traders and exporters are very keen to know whether this price will sustain or will there be an increase or decrease in the future? This is more crucial to take their storage / sales decisions.

     The entire scenario has to be analysed taking into account the anticipated new arrivals from January 2011 onwards from different parts of the country, the existing stock, local demand for next year, etc.

     The highest prices of turmeric for the past 18 months had made the farmers to go in for turmeric cultivation in a larger area. The regular turmeric growers had increased their area besides new entrants. It is expected that around 70 lakh bags would be the next year’s production against a normal 45-50 lakh bags at National level as per trade sources. Right from second fortnight of December 2010 the stocks are expected into the market since farmers had this time sown turmeric in January, February itself due to water availability and in anticipation of better prices.

     Around 5 to 5.5 lakh bags are estimated to be under storage. With regulated markets, co-operative marketing societies and commission agents about 1 lakh bags are estimated under storage while with farmers of Tamil Nadu alone as per trade sources there might be about 3 ½ to 4 lakh bags. In Sangli and other markets put together it may be around 75,000 bags.

     Daily about 2500-3000 bags are being sold in Erode market against an arrival of about 6000 bags.

     To help the farmers, traders and other stakeholders in turmeric, the NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore analysed the monthly prices of turmeric that prevailed in Erode Regulated Market for the past more than 15 years. The results of the analysis indicated that the prices will start declining from December 2010 onwards. The futures prices have also indicated a decline. The results of the analysis had indicated that the declining trend would continue. Hence farmers are requested to take their selling /storage decisions accordingly.

     The above forecast is done taking into account a normal monsoon without any crop damage due to flood, diseases etc. If any such things happen the prices are bound to behave differently.

Maize Prices to Remain Stable  (Nov 2010)

     Maize, an important cereal in the world has seen an uptrend in international and domestic prices. Low production, low stock position, increased feed usage, industrial and food usage have increased the consumption of maize and this is estimated to reach a record of 840 million tonnes in 2010-11 (813 MT in 2009-10) while world maize production is expected to be 814 million tonnes with 1.70 per cent increase in area compared to previous year (158 million hectares).

     India is the world's fifth biggest maize producer and a net exporter. It exports around 1-3 million tonnes each marketing year. India produced 16.68 million tonnes of maize in 2009-10. India’s maize production is likely to go up by 14 per cent in the 2010-11 crop year to over 19 million tonnes on prospects of good rains and better usage of seeds. Maize consumption is estimated to grow at a rate of five per cent and it will be around 16 million tonnes. Government has raised the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of maize from Rs. 840/- per quintal in 2009-10 to Rs. 880/- for the year 2010-11. According to industry data, India exported around 2.5 million tonnes in 2009-10 and it is likely to be 2.7 million tonnes this year.

     In Tamil Nadu, maize is cultivated in around 2 lakh ha and karthigaipattam is one of the major maize seasons in Tamil Nadu. Peak arrivals start from December to April in Tamil Nadu markets. According to trade sources demand for Maize by poultry industry in the State is estimated to be around 8-8.5 lakh tonnes while production is only about 4 lakh tonnes. Currently the market prices of good quality maize is ruling around Rs.925-975 per quintal .As per the results of the analysis carried out by NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, this price is expected to prevail till February 2011 and after that the prices are likely to increase further. Good export opportunities, increased domestic consumption will keep the maize in the above said range. Hence farmers are advised to take up maize sowing. 

Price forecast for Karthigaipattam Crops  (Nov 2010)

     In Tamil Nadu Bengal gram, Coriander and Cumbu are three important food crops grown in Karthigaipattam season (October ,November sowing).This year, with an expectation of normal north east monsoon season farmers intend to cultivate these important food crops. To facilitate farmers in order to take cultivation decisions in getting better price for their products Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the prices of above crops and suggested the following:

Bengal Gram

     Globally Bengal gram was cultivated in 11.08 million hectares leading to a production of 9.77 million tonnes in 2009-10. India stands first in Bengal gram production with a share of 70 per cent along with a consumption of 90 per cent of world production. It was cultivated in 7.5 million hectares in 2009 and the production was 6.54 million tonnes.

     In Tamil Nadu Bengal gram is normally sown in Karthigai (November) and harvested in February-March. It was cultivated in 0.68 million hectare leading to a production 0.45 million tonnes in 2009. Coimbatore district occupied 81 per cent of the crop followed by Dindigul and Dharmapuri districts. 

     Trade sources revealed that expected arrivals from other major producing countries during November–December followed by local arrivals during February– March will keep its prices firm. Bengal gram prices prevailed in Udumalpet market for last nine years were collected and analyzed. NAIP-DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price of Bengal gram will hover around Rs.2400-2500 per quintal during February-March, 2011, i.e. during harvest period. 

Coriander

     Coriander or Dhania is an important spice crop. The coriander plant yields both fresh leaves and spice seed, which are used primarily for culinary purposes. The global trade in coriander is estimated to be around 0.85 to 1.00 lakh tonnes this year. India is the largest producer and exporter of coriander seeds in the global market (70%) while Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Morocco, Iran and China are the other major exporters. Middle East, South-east Asia, USA, UK, Germany are the major importers. 

     In 2009 India's production was around 2.88 lakh tonnes of seeds from an area of 3.62 lakh hectares. Rajasthan (54%) and Madhya Pradesh (17%) are the two largest producing states in the country contributing over two-thirds to the country's total production. The other producers are Gujarat (6.9%), Assam (6.6%), Andhra Pradesh (3.5%), Karnataka (3.3%), Orissa (3.2%) and Tamil Nadu (2%). In Tamil Nadu coriander is sown during October-November and harvested in February-March. 

     In Tamil Nadu, coriander is cultivated in 24,748 hectares. Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, Coimbatore and Cuddalore districts are the major coriander growing areas of Tamil Nadu. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore had econometrically analyzed the monthly data of coriander prices that prevailed in the last nine years in Virudhunagar Regulated market. The price of coriander seed during February to April, 2011, i.e., during harvest, is estimated to be in the range of Rs.3,000 to 3,200 per quintal. 

Cumbu

     Cumbu or bajra is one of the major coarse grain cereal crops. It is also one of the most drought resistant crops among cereals and millets. It is also used as poultry feed and green fodder for cattle. 

     In India, during 2008-09, Cumbu was cultivated in 9.71 million hectares with a production of 8.88 million tonnes. Cumbu is cultivated mostly in Oct-Dec. Mainly it is sown during October based on the rainfall occurrence. Also during summer it is grown in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Punjab and Gujarat as an irrigated crop. In Tamil Nadu, it is grown in an area of about 0.59 lakh hectares with a production of 0.85 lakh tonnes and productivity of 1436 kg per hectare. Villupuram district has the highest area of 15,172 hectares followed by Thoothukudi, Madurai, Thiruvannamalai and Dindigul districts. 

     During the last harvest season (January, 2010) the price was Rs.8 per kg .Trade sources revealed that there was a shift towards maize crop because labour charges are more in cumbu than maize. Hence this year, the area and production of cumbu is likely to see a downtrend. As per the econometric analysis done by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, on the last 15 years cumbu price of Kovilpatti market, the price of cumbu during Feb-March 2011, i.e., during harvest of karthigai sown crop would revolve around Rs, 750-875 per quintal. Based on this price farmers are advised to take their decision on sowing of cumbu. 

Potato may be Sold upon Harvest: TNAU Recommends (Jan 2011)

     Potato is a high yielding short duration crop. Potatoes are grown in 150 countries throughout the world and more than a billion people consume it. The top ten producers in the world are China, Russia, India, USA, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Netherlands and France. These together contribute about 70% of the total production. India ranks third contributing around 7.5% of the world’s production. Production - wise India always remains in the top ten since the last twenty years. Europe is the largest per capita consumer, followed by North America and Latin America. 

     Fresh potatoes are exported to Sri Lanka, UAE, Mauritius, Nepal, Singapore, Maldives and Kuwait from India. With phenomenal increase in potato production in the last 10 years, recurring gluts have become common in the country. Prices crash drastically during harvesting months leading to panic sale by farmers. The States of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar account for more than 80 percent of total production in India.

     In Tamil Nadu, Potato is cultivated in 4,800 hectares with a production of 80,600 tonnes (2009-2010) and it is mostly grown in hilly regions of Dindigul, The Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. The steady increase in price of hill potatoes which are known for their premium quality and taste during 2009-10 encouraged the farmers to go in for potato cultivation in 2010 Kharif Season. 

     The Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society (NCMS), Mettupalayam is one of the major trading centres in India. At the auction centre at Mettupalayam, a bag of potato containing 45 kg is currently auctioned in the price range of Rs 680 to Rs 730. 

     Since there is less arrival from Karnataka State (Kharif), there is a continuous demand for Nilgiris potato which is getting better price in Mettupalayam markets.

     NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the past 20 years prices of potato that prevailed in Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society. The results confirmed that the growers could get a price of Rs.570 to Rs. 640 per bag of 45 kg in December 2010. In February and March 2011, the prices are likely to decline. Hence farmers are advised to sell potato immediately upon harvest without resorting to storage.


Thaipattam Maize Sowing is Profitable (Jan 2011)

     Karthigaipattam sown maize started arriving in the market and the arrivals will end by April. Maize crop in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka is estimated to be good and traders and poultry firms expect quality arrivals this time.

     According to International Grain Council (IGC) the world maize production will be 810 million tonnes and consumption is estimated to be 840 million tonnes and hence the carryover stock will be low of 121 million tonnes. Among the major exporters of maize, USA dominates the international trade followed by Argentina. Natural calamites like flood, drought in maize producing countries like China and Argentina has reduced crop prospects and created good scope for export opportunity. Major importing nations of maize are Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, Egypt, Malaysia and Sri Lanka. Already Sri lanka, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia are placing orders for maize import.

     In India, the area under maize in rabi 2010-11 is 10.80 lakh ha compared to 10.34 lakh ha in the last rabi season. Karnataka is the largest producer contributing 18 per cent to the country’s production followed by Andhra Pradesh (16 %) and Tamil Nadu (5 %).

     Demand for maize is high in Tamil Nadu due to feed requirement for its poultry industry. It is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode and Virudhunagar districts of Tamil Nadu which constitutes 77 per cent of the total area (2.02 lakh hectares). One of the major sowing seasons for maize is Thai Pattam. Farmers with irrigation facilities will be growing maize during this season. Currently in Tamil Nadu, the price is ruling around Rs.920 to Rs.940 per quintal. Poultry firms and feed units are purchasing in full swing for stocks. Domestic consumption and export opportunities will keep the maize prices stable. NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has already given forecast in November 2010 that the price will be prevailing around Rs.925 - 975 per quintal till February 2011 and after that the prices are likely to increase further. NAIP –DEMIC has conducted further analysis with Udamalpet market prices and confirms the predicted results that there is a chance of increase in maize price from April to June to be around Rs.950-1150 per quintal. Hence farmers are advised to go for maize cultivation in Thaipattam and get higher prices. Currently harvested produce could be stored upto April for higher price realization. The product may be well dried and stored in the godowns of Regulated markets and rural godowns of Cooperative Agricultural Societies. While sowing maize in Thaipattam, care may be taken to sow bold seeded varieties / hybrids.

Sell Coconut upon Harvest  (Jan 2011)

Coconut (Cocos nucifera) is a member of the palm family. Coconut oil and copra are the two major products shaping the global coconut economy. Coconuts form a part of daily diet. The oil is used for cooking and coir is used for furnishing, decorating, etc. Commercially, tender nut, and mature nut as well as edible copra have economic importance as food material.

     Globally 5.5 million tonnes of coconut is produced annually and the share of leading producers, Indonesia, Philippines and India, are 27%, 23% and 22% respectively. Sri Lanka, Mexico, Vietnam, New Guinea and Brazil are the other important producers. India also being the largest consumer of coconut products in the world, imported 665.48 tonnes of coconut products from other countries such as Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Malaysia in the year 2007-08.

     India ranks third among the coconut growing countries of the world next to Indonesia and Philippines with an area of 1.89 million hectares and production of 15729.75 million nuts in 2008-09. The average yield is about 8303 nuts per hectare. In India, Kerala stands first in acreage under coconut accounting for about 42 per cent of the total area. Following Kerala are Karnataka and Tamil Nadu contributing 22% and 21.00% respectively to the total coconut area. In terms of production, Kerala contributes for about 37 percent followed by Tamil Nadu (34.00%), and Karnataka (14.00%). 

     Tamil Nadu produced 53620 lakh nuts of coconut from an area of 389429 hectares in 2008-09. In Tamil Nadu it is raised extensively in Coimbatore, Thanjavur, Dindigul, Kanyakumari, Vellore, Erode, Theni, Tirunelveli, Krishnagiri, Salem and Madurai districts. The area under coconut in these districts accounted for 76.2% of the total area under this crop during 08-09. Coimbatore district has the largest area under coconut. Coconut from Tamil Nadu is procured by traders in Uttarpradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala. 

     Trade sources revealed that arrivals of coconut will be high during Feb –June and lean during July –December. The price of coconut is expected to increase due to its high local demand, pilgrimage season (Sabrimala season), and lower production due to heavy rainfall until the end of January 2011. Rising demand for ceremonies and festivals has pushed up the prices of coconut. In Tamil Nadu, coconut arrivals start declining during the months of November – December and continue till the month of January. Generally, Coconut arrivals hit the market in a large way after February with the arrivals from Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Pondicherry, and Goa. 

     To help the farmers in taking a decision on whether to sell or store the nuts, an analysis of prices of nuts in Pollachi market was undertaken by the NAIP – Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore The econometric analysis of the past ten years data revealed that prices are likely to increase upto middle of Feb 2011 and then gradually decrease. The rising demand for coconuts and coconut oil with general increase in prices of other oilseeds is likely to push up the prices.

     Heavy rains during October-December 2010, affected fruit setting in coconut trees. The resulting shortage of copra and the festival demand put together is expected to increase the prices of coconuts between Rs.1125 to 1350 per quintal up to second week of February 2011 and after that it will decline and range between Rs.1050 to Rs.1275 per quintal up to March 2011. Around 150 medium sized coconuts will constitute one quintal. Since storage is not rewarding farmers are advised to sell coconut upon harvest.

Neerbogam Potato would Fetch Remunerative Prices (Feb 2011)

     Potato is a high yielding short duration crop. Potato is grown in around 150 countries and is consumed by more than one billion people throughout the world. The top ten potato producers in the world are China, Russia, India, USA, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Belarus, Netherlands and France. These countries together contribute about 70 percent of the total potato production in the world.

     In India, more than 80 percent of the potato crop is raised in the winter season (Rabi) under assured irrigation during short winter days from October to March. About 8 percent area is in the hills where it is grown during long summer days from April to October. During rainy season (Kharif) potato is produced in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttaranchal. 

     In Tamil Nadu, potato is grown in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiri, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. Dindigul and Nilgiri districts contribute about 95 percent of potato area in the state. In 2010-11 potato production in Tamil Nadu is expected to be 97,200 tonnes from an area of 4,600 hectares with an average productivity of 21.13 tonnes per hectare. The major problems faced by the Nilgiris farmers are high cost of cultivation, labour shortage and higher arrivals from other states at competitive prices. 

     The traders are sourcing potato from Agra and Hasanpur in Uttar Pradesh, Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kolar in Karnataka for consumers of Tamil Nadu. They export fresh potatoes to Sri Lanka, UAE, Singapore, Nepal, Kuwait etc. 
The Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society, Mettupalayam is one of the major trading centres in India. About 100 private commission mundies are also functioning in Mettupalayam. Peak arrivals of potato is during June to December and the lean period is from February to April. In the Nilgiris, the neerbogam potato is sown during February under irrigated conditions.

     The NAIP-DEMIC functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University had analysed the prices that prevailed in NCMS Mettupalayam market in the last 20 years. The results of the analysis revealed that farmers would be in a position to get a price of Rs.14 to 16 per Kg of potato in May, June 2011 when the neerbogam potato comes to harvest. Arrivals from other States are limited during this time period and Niligiris potatoes always fetch a premium for its better quality. Based on this expected price farmers are recommended to go for sowing potato in Neerbogam. 

Thaipattam Groundnut sowing would be remunerative (Feb 2011)

     Groundnut is one of the major oilseed crops in the world. Its oil content is more than 40 % and protein content is 25%. India is the second largest producer of groundnut after China. China, India, Senegal, Sudan and Indonesia are the major producers of groundnut in the World. For the current oil year (Nov 2010 to Oct 2011) Indian vegetable oil imports is expected between 9.3 and 9.5 million tonnes. 

     Groundnut is a major oilseed, contributing about 51.2 lakh tonnes of the total oilseed production during 2009-10 in India. Kharif is the major producing season for groundnut in India. Groundnut production in Kharif 2009-10 was 32.9 lakh tonnes and in 2010-11, the kharif production is estimated at 41.00 lakh tonnes. The major States growing groundnut are Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Gujarat occupies the first position in production (45.61 %), followed by Andhra Pradesh (14.63%), Rajasthan (10.98%), and Tamil Nadu (4.88 %). 

     In Tamil Nadu, groundnut is cultivated in around 4.89 lakh hectares and about 10.26 lakh tonnes of groundnut is produced with an average yield of 1775 Kg/ha. Major groundnut producing districts of Tamil Nadu are Tiruvannamalai (14.90 %), Villupuram (11.50%), Vellore (8.57%), Kancheepuram (7.25%), Namakkal (6.15%) and Erode (6.05%). In most of these districts groundnut is sown in Thai pattam (Jan 15 to Feb 15) as an irrigated crop and it comes to harvest in April, May.

     To facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision on sowing groundnut in Thaipattam, the NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 15 year prices prevailed in Sevur regulated market. The econometric analysis of groundnut prices revealed that farmers could get a price of Rs.34 to 36/ kg of groundnut pods during April, May 2011. In Erode district, groundnut is mostly sold for use in confectionary and a minimum to oil, and hence the prices are higher (Rs.1-2 /kg) than the other districts. Based on the above price, farmers are recommended to go for groundnut sowing in Thaipattam. Since, maize sowing in thaipattam is also more profitable, farmers are requested to take their sowing decision based on the above prices, soil and irrigation condition, labour availabity and fodder requirements.

Sell Small Onion Upon Harvest (Feb 2011)

     Onion caught the attention of almost everybody in the country during recent months as the price skyrocketed to Rs. 80 per kg. Indian culinary is never without onion in its preparation. Hence it is an important vegetable and also has become a politically sensitive crop. The reason behind this was due to unseasonal rains in late October which affected kharif crop in major onion growing States (loss of 35 per cent in Maharashtra, 50 per cent in Gujarat, 25 per cent in Rajasthan and 40 per cent in Madhya Pradesh).

     In India, the area and production of onion is in an increasing trend. In 2001, the area under onion was 4.52 lakh hectares and it has increased to 7.57 lakh hectares. Nearly 40 per cent of India’s annual onion production is during the summer season, and the remaining in winter. Late kharif crop started from mid January 2011 and will continue till mid of March 2011 and arrivals will be more in this month. Also transplanting of rabi onion seedlings is completed in all the rabi onion growing States of the country and it will come to market from mid of March onwards. Exportable quality of onion is higher in Rabi season. Due to recent price hikes the export is banned indefinitely. 

     Tamil Nadu accounts for 5 per cent of country’s onion area and more than 70 per cent of this is occupied by small onion. Bellary onion cultivation is only 30 per cent as the availability of this type from North India is more at cheaper price and storability of Tamil Nadu grown bellary onion is poor. Hence farmers prefer to go for small onion in Tamil nadu. Nowadays there is no season for onion and it is cultivated continuously as it is one of the profitable vegetables. Currently onion from Perambalur, Dindigul and onion from Thoothukudi districts are arriving in the market and onion arrivals from Coimbatore will start from this month end. 

     Farmers are in a dilemma whether to store the currently harvested onion or sell immediately. To help them in taking a proper marketing decision, small onion prices for next three months were analysed by NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell. The prices relate to Dindigul market. The results revealed that prices of good quality small onion will be around Rs. 1900 to Rs. 2400 per quintal for the next three months. Hence farmers are recommended to sell small onion upon harvest without storing. If the present export ban is lifted which is mainly based on bellary onion prices, farm gate prices of small onion will also increase by Rs 2-3 per kg.

Prices Keep Cotton Farmers Happy – Farmers advised to go for Masi -Panguni Cotton (Mar 2011)

     International cotton prices touched a historic peak which is about 129.44 percent hike compared with cotton price of 2009. In India, price of cotton has doubled in 2011 when compared to 2010 prices (In February 2010, one quintal of RCH raw cotton was Rs.3400 and currently it is Rs.7000 per quintal). This is because of demand supply mismatch caused by crop damage in major cotton producing countries like USA, China, Pakistan and recently Australia, lower stocks, increased consumption and exports.

     n India, due to unseasonal rain and floods in cotton-producing States like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Gujarat the production was low. Initially, the Cotton Advisory Board estimated that the production would be around 32.5 million bales in 2010-11. But, output this year will not be more than 31.2 million bales, according to Cotton Advisory Board.

     India, which is also the world's second-biggest exporter of cotton, had given permission for exports of 5.5 million bales in 2010/11 before December 15, 2010. But only 3 million bales were exported due to late arrivals. In January 2011, the cotton position gave an alarming signal and the price rose to the peak. As the Indian cotton is cheaper than Chinese or U.S. cotton, overseas demand for Indian cotton has increased.

     In Tamil Nadu, which is the largest consumer of cotton in India, the area increased to 1.30 lakh hectares (2010-11) compared to last year (1.04 lakh hectares). Summer cotton cultivation is exclusive in Tamil Nadu and is sown in Masipattam (Feb-Mar) . To facilitate farmers to take up sowing decisions, NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed cotton prices of Avinashi Cooperative Marketing Society and revealed that prices of cotton (Long Staple cotton) will be around Rs. 5500-6200 per quintal during June to September 2011 ie., during harvest of the masipattam sown crop. Hence farmers are recommended to go for cotton cultivation and reap remunerative prices. Cotton sowing has to be completed before the end of March.

Red Chilli to Fetch Higher Prices  (Apr 2011)

      Chilli is one of the major commercial spice crops grown in Ramanathapuram and Thoothukudi districts and sparsely grown in almost all other districts of Tamil Nadu. These two districts together share 62.5% of the total area under this crop. 

     India produced 13,53,796 tonnes of chillies from an area of 801,070 hectares during 2008-09.As per Spices Board’s estimates Indian export is 200,000 tonnes of chillies valuing Rs.1255.52 Crores during April- January 2010-11. Indian chillies are exported to Srilanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia and USA. Chillies are exported in the form of dry chillies, seeds, oil, chilli paste, chilli powder and pickled chillies. USA is importing chillies mainly in the form of paste and oil. 

     It is grown during August to February. Chilli harvest has begun in Tamil Nadu and Virudhunagar, Ramanad, Paramakudi and Thoothukudi are the major markets for chilli. Major varieties are Virudhunagar Samba (Sannam) and Ramnad Mundu (Gundu). In 2008-09 it was grown in 65,412 hectares in the State, producing 32,924 tonnes of red/dry chillies.

     April 2011 futures price for chilli is being quoted at Rs.8514 per quintal. The prices are steadily rising from Rs.5260 per quintal from Aug 2010 with an expectation of less production during this year because of excess rainfall during fruit setting and less acreages sown for want of availability of labour due to employment guarantee scheme VIZ., MNREGA. Traders opined that in the next two months prices may touch Rs 100/kg due to decreased arrivals. Compared to last year, arrivals are very low during this year. Last year the normal arrival per day was 10000-12000 bags but this year it is only 1000 to 2000 bags. 

     To facilitate the farmers in taking a decision on marketing of chillies, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the prices that prevailed in Virudhunagar market during the last ten years and predicted that the price will be ruling between Rs.77-91 per kg in April to June 2011. Higher prices will be received from May onwards. Hence farmers are recommended to store the red chilli and sell in May, June 2011.Cold storage costs Re 0.40 per kg of chillies for one month and for Non-cold storage Re 0.15 per kg.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Dr.T.Jansi Rani, Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Horticultural College and Research Institute
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-6611284
Mobile: 9994452720

Sell Sunflower Seeds Immediately  (Apr 2011)

     Sunflower is one of the important oilseeds grown in the world. In 2008-09, world sunflower seed production was 33.3 million tonnes, i.e., around 8.5% of the total world oilseeds production. European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, United States, China, India and Turkey are the major producers of sunflower seed in the world. Country -wise, production in Russia is the maximum followed by Ukraine. 

     India imports palm oil mainly from Malaysia and Indonesia, soy oil from Brazil and Argentina and sunflower oil mainly from Ukraine, Russia and Argentina. In India, Sunflower seed production in Kharif (2009-10) was 3.2 lakh tonnes and the same was 1.35 lakh tonnes in kharif 2010-11.The major producers of sunflower are Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

     The total area of sunflower and production in Tamil Nadu during 2008-2009 were 0.29 lakh hectares, 0.34 lakh tonnes respectively and productivity was 1334 kg/ha. Karur, Trichy, Dindigul, Thoothukudi and Thiruvannamalai are the major sunflower growing districts in the state. The major market centres in Tamil Nadu are Vellakovil, Moolanur and Kodumudi. 

     The import of vegetable oils during January 2011 is reported at 721,197 tonnes compared to 872,395 tonnes in January 2010. The total import of vegetable oils in the first two months of the current oil year (November 2010-October 2011) slipped by eight per cent to 1.42 million tonnes. The current stock of edible oils at various ports (as of January 1) is estimated at 645,000 tonnes and approximately 750,000 tonnes is also in the pipe line. The appreciating rupee has facilitated India’s import of 638,000 tonnes of palm oil in December 2010(compared to 625,000 tonnes in December 2009).

     Farmers in Tamil Nadu are eager to know whether to sell the harvested sunflower immediately or store it for better prices in future. To facilitate the farmers in taking a better Marketing decision the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the monthly prices of sunflower that prevailed in Vellakoil Regulated Market for the past 11 years. The results of the analysis revealed that the prices would be around Rs.27 to 30/ kg during April-May 2011. The maximum price will be offered to high quality seeds which will weigh about 40-42 gms for a volume of 100 gm seeds. Depending on the volume - weight basis the price will change. Since there is little chance for the sunflower prices to increase farmers are recommended to sell sunflower upon harvest without going for storage.

For further details contact:

NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405
Dr. K. Ganesamoorthy
Professor and Head
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-3
Phone No: - 022-2450812
Mobile No: - 9360339737

Sell Gingelly immediately on Harvest (May 2011)

     Gingelly seed is an important ingredient in culinary traditions of many countries, especially countries in West Asia. It contains 55 per cent of oil. It is a rich source of nutrition besides being a bio-medicine. Gingelly oil is used for cooking and in manufacture of cosmetics, paints and lubricants. The byproduct obtained after extracting oil is used as feed for livestock. Global output of gingelly seed is estimated at around 3.0 million tonnes per year with India and China dominating production. Global gingelly seed trade is estimated at 5 - 6 lakh tonnes per year. 

     In India, Gingelly seed production in Kharif (2010-11) was 4.40 lakh tonnes and it was 4.30 lakh tonnes in Kharif during 2009-10. The major gingelly producing states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Orissa. The eastern region comprising of West Bengal, Orissa, Assam and Andhra Pradesh mostly produce red and black varieties while white gingelly is grown in Maharastra and other western States.

     Gingelly occupies around 0.63 lakh hectares in Tamil Nadu with an average yield of 506 kg per hectare and an annual production of around 0.31 lakh tonnes. The major producing districts are Erode, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Karur, Cuddalore, Thoothukudi and Salem. Gingelly crop is taken up in two seasons during Thai pattam (Jan -Feb) and Adi pattam (July-August). 

     The Thaipattam sown crop is under harvest and arrivals have started. Gingelly farmers normally get 350-400 kg yield of gingelly seed per acre in irrigated area. But in this season, the yield obtained was reported as 240-300 kg per acre due to the non-availability of quality seeds, pest attack and labour shortage. With this, farmers have to take a decision whether to sell Gingelly harvested immediately or store for some time to get a better price. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 11 year prices prevailed in Kodumudi market. Results of the econometric analysis revealed that the price of Gingelly seed for the next two months i.e. May to June 2011 will be ruling in the range of Rs.44 - Rs.49 per kg and there is no scope for increase in prices. Hence farmers are recommended to sell the harvested Gingelly with out storing for the above said prices.

For further details contact:
NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

Dr. K. Ganesamoorthy
Professor and Head
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-3
Phone No: - 0422-2450812
Mobile No: - 9360339737

Maize Cultivation will be Profitable (May 2011)

     Maize is one of the important cereals in the world used in poultry feed, starch industry, biofuel besides as food. Due to its varied uses, the demand for maize is increasing over years. During the current year the price of maize is showing an increasing trend. Currently it is Rs.1280 per quintal while it was Rs.925 per quintal during the same period last year. The factors contributing to the rise in price are high international prices, increased domestic and export demand and lower stocks. 

     Global maize production and consumption in 2010-11 are estimated as 809 million tonnes and 843 million tonnes respectively and the carryover stock is only 119 million tonnes. China, the second largest producer is now importing large quantities of maize (6 million tonnes in 2011). Moreover, increased usage of maize in ethanol production by USA, is also one of the main reasons for price increase.

     In India, the maize production in 2010 - 11 is estimated to be 20.23 million tonnes. Last year (2009-10) production was 16.72 million tonnes and this created a low stock position. The poultry industry needs 14 million tonnes per annum and the requirement is growing by 20 per cent every year. As per market sources, India`s total maize export is likely to exceed 2.5 million tonnes by September this year (so far 2.1 million tonnes) against 1.3 million tonnes in the previous year. 
Tamil Nadu is one of the major consumers of maize being used in poultry feed units. In January 2011, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University suggested the farmers to hold back the harvested maize to get good price in April. By holding the stocks farmers are able to get an increased price by Rs.200 per quintal. The validity of the forecast made the farmers enquire about sowing of maize in summer season. To facilitate sowing decisions, NAIP –DEMIC analysed the prices prevailed in Udamalpet Regulated market. Based on the results of the analysis it is recommended that farmers may go for maize cultivation in summer (Chithiraipattam) and during harvest (July - August 2011), they will get Rs 1200-Rs1350 per quintal for good quality maize. If there is any export ban, there will be marginal decline in prices. Farmers are also informed that Chitirai sown maize will yield about 70 - 80 per cent of the normal yield. Farmers are advised to do seed treatment with Metalaxy l / Ridomil (6g / Kg of seed) to prevent downy mildew.

For further details contact:
NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

Dr. G. Nallathambi
Professor (Maize Breeding)
Centre for Plant Breeding and Genetics
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2450507
9486913279

Neerbogam Potato to fetch Remunerative Prices (May 2011)

     Potato is an important tuber crop which is grown in around 150 countries and is consumed by more than one billion people throughout the world. India ranks second in the world’s production after China. Europe is the largest per capita consumer of potato followed by North America and Latin America. Fresh potatoes from India are exported to Sri Lanka, UAE, Mauritius, Nepal, Singapore, Maldives and Kuwait. The States of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar account for more than 80 percent of total production in India. 

     In Tamil Nadu, potato is grown in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. In 2010 -2011, potato was cultivated in 4,600 hectares in Tamil Nadu (last year it was 4800 hectares) and the production was 97200 tonnes (last year it was 80600 tonnes). During the lean season (February-April), traders are outsourcing potato from Agra, Hasanpur in Uttar Pradesh, Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kolar in Karnataka to cater to the needs of Tamil Nadu consumers. Arrivals from other States are hence higher during this time period. 

     Potato is priced based on quality, size, color and shelf-life period. Also it is graded as thala rasi, rasi, podi and thallu kilangu according to different quality parameters. Nilgiris potato is traded to Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai, Trichy, Salem and Vellore and also to other States. Potatoes grown in the Nilgiris fetch higher prices always when compared to those grown in Karnataka and northern States. This is purely because of the better quality of Nilgiris potato besides their higher shelf-life. The Nilgiris farmers who have sown Neerbogam (February - May, June) potato are interested in knowing the price of potato that would prevail during May and June months after the harvest. Last month the price of potato was Rs. 450 to 550 per bag of 45 kg in Mettupalayam market. 

     NAIP – Domestic and Export Market Intelligence (DEMIC) Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the 20 years prices of potato that prevailed during 1990-2010 in Nilgiris Co-Operative Marketing Society in Mettupalayam and it is informed that the prices are likely to be Rs.625 – Rs.675 per bag of 45 kg during May and June 2011. Earlier in February 2011, DEMIC had recommended to the Nilgiris farmers to go for sowing of potato in Neerbogam season (February - May, June) to get a price of Rs.14 to Rs.16 per kg in May, June 2011 which has become true. In July 2011, there will be a decline of Rs.1 to Rs.2 per kg. Since there are no chances for the prices to increase it is recommended that farmers may sell the potato immediately upon harvest.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405
Cell: 9486111708
For Technical Details please contact
Dr.R.M.Vijayakumar
Professor and Head
Horticultural Research Station 
Vijayanagaram
Udhagamandalam-643001
Phone: 0423-2442170
Cell: 9442351489

Farmers advised to sell Coconut upon Harvest (May 2011)

     Coconut is a crop of high economic value. The world production of coconut during 2009 was around 30.96 million tonnes. Globally Philippines is the largest producer followed by India contributing to 51 % and 35 % of production. It is cultivated in around 6.16 million hactares of land throughout the world in more than 19 countries. About 13,621 tonnes of fresh coconuts were exported from India during 2009-10. Exports to UAE constituted 75.08 % followed by Nepal (6.96 %) and UK (4.99 %). India got an earnings of more than Rs. 18.89 crores from export of fresh coconuts in 2009-10.

     Coconut production in India was 10.148 million tonnes during 2009-10 and the area under cultivation sums up to around 1.90 million hectares. Kerala with a production of 3.88 million tonnes ranks first followed by Tamil Nadu with 3.42 million tonnes and Karnataka with 1.13 million tonnes occupying about 83% of the country’s total coconut production.

     In Tamil Nadu, coconut is cultivated in 0.38 million hectares. Major districts cultivating coconut in Tamil Nadu are Coimbatore, Tiruppur, Thanjavur, Dindigul, Kanyakumari, Vellore, Theni, Tirunelveli, Krishnagiri, Salem and Madurai. 

     Among the production 65-70 per cent goes for oil purpose only. During the past one to one and half years coconut exports are good. Last year in Apr-May the price per nut was at Rs.4-6 but this year it is Rs.10-12 per nut.

     Increase in the price of coconut raised queries among the coconut growers in Tamil Nadu like whether harvested nuts will fetch higher price during May-July months. To facilitate farmers in order to take a better marketing decision, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted a market survey at Pollachi Regulated Market, the major market centre for coconut and analyzed the past 10 years price data of coconut prevailed in this market. The results revealed that the price of coconut at farm level would be Rs.10-12 per nut in Pollachi area during May, June 2011.In other regions of Tamil Nadu, the price will be slightly lesser. Since the prices are not likely to increase further it is recommended that farmers may sell the coconut immediately on harvest without going for storage. Around 150 medium sized coconuts will constitute one quintal.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Dr.T.Jansi Rani, Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Horticultural College and Research Institute
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-6611284
Mobile - 9994425720

Sell Greengram and Blackgram Stocks immediately- Farm University Advises Farmers (Jun 2011)

     Pulses are important food crops due to their high protein and essential amino acid content. Pulses are used as food and animal feed. India is the world's largest producer, importer and consumer of pulses. Many exporting countries are dependent on India for marketing their pulses. Even though India is the world's largest producer and consumer of pulses still there is a gap of 2-3 million tonnes between the production and consumption of pulses in the country and the gap is met through imports.

     India imports three million tonnes of pulses annually to meet domestic shortages. But import volumes into India have begun to slow. According to Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, India imported 1.61 million tonnes of pulses worth Rs.4,542.29 crores in the first seven months of this fiscal (2010-11) but in the corresponding period of the 2009-10 fiscal the country had imported 3.51 million tonnes of pulses worth Rs. 9,813.37 crores. Thus there is a reduction in import of pulses by about 54 percent during the current year comparing last year.

      Annual target for pulses production in the country is 16.5 million tonnes in 2010-11 and production exceeded this target first time to a record high of 17.3 million tonnes from 14.7 million tonnes in 2009-10. Domestic demand is 18-19 million tonnes during the crop year 2010-11. Remunerative prices received by farmers and favourable monsoon were the major factors that helped the country to raise pulses output to this level. The production of pulses during 2011-12 as per the Second Advance Estimates of the Agriculture Ministry is put at 16.51 million tonnes. Planning Commission of India has estimated the demand for pulses in the country during 2011-12 as 19.11 million tonnes. To augment domestic availability of pulses, the Government of India has permitted its imports at zero duty up to March 31, 2012.

     Among the pulses, Blackgram and Greengram are important ones. As per Government of India’s Third Advanced Crop Estimates, Blackgram production is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes and green gram as 1.4 million tonnes during 2010-11.

     The area under Pulses in Tamil Nadu was 5.35 lakh hectares with production of 2.04 lakh tonnes during 2009-10 while the area under Blackgram and Greengram were 2.60 lakh hectares and 1.38 lakh hectares with production of 0.99 lakh tonnes and 0.48 lakh tonnes respectively. These two crops together accounted for 74.39 % of the total area under the pulses during 2009-10. Major Black and Green Gram producing districts in Tamil Nadu are Nagapattinam, Thiruvarur, Thoothukudi, Cuddalore, Thanjavur, Tirunelveli and Villupuram. In Tamil Nadu, Blackgram and Greengram prices had reached Rs.56 and Rs.62 per kg respectively during the last year and eased to Rs.48 and Rs.38 under the weight of domestic harvest currently. 

     In the budget for 2011-12, Government of India had announced a number of measures to strengthen the areas of pulses, vegetables and oil palm. India had launched Accelerated Pulses Program (A3P) since Kharif 2010 for demonstration of production technologies in village level blocks. This alongwith better rainfall during Kharif and Rabi 2010 had resulted in increased production of pulses in our country. 

     Under the above circumstances farmers are raising queries whether to sell the Blackgram and Greengram that has been stored in anticipation of better prices. In order to facilitate farmers to take better marketing decisions Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore has analyzed the prices of Blackgram and Greengram that prevailed during the last ten years at Villupuram Regulated Market and confirmed that prices of Blackgram and Greengram will rule at Rs.46-48/kg and Rs.41-42/kg respectively in June, July 2011. Since there are no chances for increase in prices farmers are recommended to sell their stocks of Greengram and Blackgram. 

For Marketing details contact:
Dr.N.Ajjan, Director, CARDS and Consortium Principal Investigator (CPI), NAIP
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS)
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003; 
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Dr.A.R.Muthiah, Professor and Head,
Department of Pulses,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-2450498
Mobile: 9360818199

Farmers Advised to Sell Turmeric Immediately (Jul 2011)

     Last year the price of turmeric in June was Rs .15000 per quintal and it is now down to half of it and prices are ruling around Rs.6500-Rs.7500 per quintal. The downtrend in price is due to 25 per cent increase in turmeric area and an increased production of about 45 per cent accounting 70 lakh bags (in 2009-10,it was 48 lakh bags), and reduction in quantity of export by about 14 per cent. 

     Globally, India stands first in turmeric production (80 percent), of which 80 per cent is domestically used. In Andhra Pradesh which is the major turmeric producing State in India, the production has increased by 40 per cent with a production of 49 lakh bags. Also, turmeric stock which was 7 lakh bags in the last year has increased to 11 lakh bags this year. In Tamil Nadu, turmeric area increased to 0.43 lakh hectares. India exports 20 per cent of its turmeric production (0.4-0.5 lakh tonnes). Gulf countries (24%) and United States of America (13%) import turmeric from India. 

     In Erode market, the turmeric arrivals from Andhra and Karnataka has decreased. Due to low prices, arrivals from Tamil Nadu is also less. Rains during last December deteriorated the quality of turmeric. Quality of turmeric stocks and less export demand are the factors which form the pull factors of turmeric prices.

     For the next three months, there are less chances of increase in prices. Data on turmeric sown area in June end and the festive demand in Adi and Deepavali season from North India will decide the price trend. In those periods price rise of Rs 500-Rs.1000 per quintal is expected. Again the price will drop down. Hence the farmers who have stocks can sell accordingly and also reduce the area under turmeric cultivation this year.

For details contact:-
Dr.N.Ajjan,
Director CARDS and Consortium Principal Investigator (CPI), NAIP
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS)
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone-0422-2431405

Kharif Small Onion to Fetch Better Prices in Tamil Nadu  (Jul 2011)

     Onion is one of the important vegetable crops grown in India and it is called as “Queen of Kitchen”. India produces both bellary and small onion. In 2009 -10, it contributed 9.47 per cent of total vegetable area and 9.1 per cent of the total vegetable production. 

     Russia is the largest producer of onion with 23.1 percent of production in the world followed by Ukraine (17.0 percent) and Argentina (14.3 percent) during 2009-10. India ranks fourth accounting for about 6 percent of the world production. According to National Horticulture Board, India produced 121.59 lakh tonnes of onion from an area of 7.56 lakh hectares in 2009-10. Maharashtra (25.9 per cent) occupies the first position followed by Karnataka (18.6 per cent), Gujarat (8.9 per cent), Bihar (8 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (7.8 per cent), Rajasthan (6.1 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (5.4 per cent), Tamil Nadu (2.8 per cent) and Haryana (2.7 per cent) in production of onion. India exported both bellary and small onion to the tune of 18.73 lakh tonnes in 2009-10 to Gulf Countries, Malaysia, Singapore, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Vietnam and Thailand are the major India’s competitors in small onion export. Indian onions are cheaper in international market.

     Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are the three important small onion producing States in India. Karnataka is a major competitor for small onion and the arrivals from Karnataka decide the small onion price in Tamil Nadu. This is also known as sambar onion.

     Tamil Nadu produced 3.40 lakh tonnes of onion in 0.35 lakh hectares during 2009-2010. In this, small onion constituted 75 per cent. During January 2011, the retail prices of small onion rose above Rs.70 per kg and the Central Government banned onion exports. However it was relaxed in February by fixing a minimum export price of Rs. 28,000 per tonne. Due to this the export decreased by 13 per cent in the month of April 2011 compared to April 2010. Now the Mysore small onion arrivals have started to enter Tamil Nadu and it will continue until July. Reduction in turmeric price has led to increase in the area under small onion in Karnataka. Small onion supply from Tamil Nadu is decreasing and now it is made available from stocks. Presently the farmgate small onion prices are ranging between Rs.24-27 per kg.

     In February 2011, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University gave a price forecast that good quality of small onion will be around Rs.19 – Rs. 24 per kg for the next three months (March- May 2011 ) and it was 100 percent valid. Hence the farmers are enquiring about sowing of small onion in kharif season. To facilitate their sowing decisions, DEMIC analysed the past 13 year prices prevailed in Dindigul market and conducted market surveys which revealed that the price for the Kharif small onion will be around Rs. 15- 20 per kg in September to October during harvest and there will be a rise of Rs. 5 -7 per Kg from November to January 2012. Hence it is recommended that farmers may go for small onion cultivation in kharif season. When storage would be resorted after harvest, it is better to sow small onion bulbs instead of raising nursery through seeds.

For details contact:-
Dr.N.Ajjan,
Director CARDS 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS),
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone-0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Dr. L.Pugalenthi,
Professor & Head,
Department of Vegetable crops,
Horticulture College and Research Institute,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-6611374
0422-6611283

Adipattam Groundnut Sowing would be Remunerative for farmers (Jul 2011)

     Groundnut is one of the major oilseed crops in the world as it is cultivated in more than 100 countries in the world. In addition to oil extraction, it is used for making protein rich meal and fodder for livestock. Groundnut (or) peanut is commonly called the poor man’s nut.

     The world oilseed production in 2010 was 444.2 million tonnes constituted by Soybean (258.4 million tonnes), Rapeseed (58.4 million tonnes), Cottonseed (43.3 million tonnes), Peanut (34.7 million tonnes), Sunflower seed (30.7 million tonnes), palm Kernel (12.7 million tonnes) and Copra (6.0 million tonnes). 
World oilseed production is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2011-12 amounting to a record production of 465 million tonnes and consumption by 2 per cent in 2011-12 amounting to around 461 million tonnes. Rape seed production is reduced by 1.2 million tonnes to 18.8 million tonnes mainly due to lower yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in major producing areas of France and Germany. China soybean production is also reduced by 0.5 million tonnes to 14.3 million tonnes reflecting lower area as producers shifted to corn. But this is more than offset by increase in oilseed production in Russia and Brazil.

     In India, total oilseed production is expected to be 39.0 million tonnes in 2010-11. This includes Groundnut (8.0 million tonnes), Soybean (9.8 million tonnes), Rape/Mustard (7.0 million tonnes), other six oilseeds (3.4 million tonnes) and Cottonseed and Copra put together (10.8 million tonnes). The per capita consumption is rising by 3 to 4 per cent per annum (13.5 kg). Total demand of edible oil (2009-10) was 15.6 million tonnes, while domestic supply of edible oils was 6.5 million tonnes only in India.

     Total edible oil production in Marketing Year 2011/12 is forecast at 7.4 million tonnes, up by 3 per cent over current marketing year. The edible oil import for current marketing year is estimated at 9 million tonnes, which includes 7 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.4 million tonnes of soy oil, 600,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 15,000 tonnes of other edible oils. 

     Groundnut is the major oilseed of India. India is placed 2nd in the world groundnut production and consumption list. In India, Gujarat (36 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (28 per cent), Tamil Nadu (11 per cent), Karnataka (8 per cent) Rajasthan (5 per cent) and Maharashtra (5 per cent) are the major producers of groundnut. Around 75% of the crop is produced in kharif (June - September) and remaining 25% in rabi (November - March). The southwest monsoon is the most important factor that determines the area sown, production and prices.

     The total area of groundnut in Tamil Nadu (2009-10) was 4.12 lakh hectares with a production of 8.89 lakh tonnes through a productivity of 2113 kg/hectare. The major groundnut producing districts are Thiruvannamalai (16.67 per cent), Villupuram (11.61 per cent), Vellore (10.58 per cent), Namakkal (7.15 per cent), Salem (5.31 per cent) and Erode (4.70 per cent). Nearly 75 per cent of groundnut sowing is during Adipattam (July to August). Hence to facilitate groundnut cultivating farmers in taking a better sowing decision, the NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 20 year prices that prevailed in Tindivanam Regulated Market. The econometric analysis and market surveys revealed that farmers could get a price of Rs.44 to 46 / kg of groundnut kernels during harvest period (October - November, 2011). Based on this price, farmers are recommended to go for groundnut sowing in Adipattam. They are recommended to treat the seeds with fungicide like ‘Captan or Thiram’ @ 3 gm/kg seed and apply gypsum before second earthing up, which should be done before the initiation of flowering which takes place after 45-50 days of sowing.

For details contact:-
Dr.N.Ajjan,
Director,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural development Studies (CARDS),
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Dr. K. Ganesamoorthy,
Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-2450812
Mobile No: - 9360339737

Adipattam Price Forecast (Aug 2011)

     Adipattam is an important cropping season under rainfed system in Tamil Nadu. South West monsoon determines the productivity of the crops and this monsoon has been forecasted to be normal. Mostly cereals, oil seeds and vegetables are sown in this season. NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has made price analysis and market survey for Maize, Gingelly and Cotton to help farmers in taking sowing decisions for crops based on the prices that might prevail during harvest of the same. 

Maize

     Maize reaped good profits this year. Maize production in the country is expected to touch 20.23 million tonnes in 2010-11 out of which 15.87 million tonnes is in the Kharif season (last year it was 16.72 million tonnes). Indian Government raised the minimum price it guarantees to maize farmers by 11.3 per cent to Rs. 980 per quintal and this supported planting decision. Maize price reached historical heights in the international market and India got good export opportunities. It has already exported 2.4 million tonnes and is expected to touch 3 million tonnes in 2010-11. India's maize export destinations are Middle East and the whole of South East Asia as the shipping costs favours imports from India.

     In Tamil Nadu, maize is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode and Virudhunagar districts which together occupy a major share in maize area (2.44 lakh hectares) in the State. Also maize from Karnataka arrives in Tamil Nadu markets and the poultry feed industry procures maize from Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra to meet the demand. Tamil Nadu is realizing a good price of Rs. 1250 per quintal. To facilitate taking up sowing decisions in Kharif , NAIP –DEMIC analysed the prices that prevailed in Udumalpet Regulated market. The results of the analysis revealed that during harvest of maize (Nov, Dec 2011), the price will be around Rs. 980-1,150 per quintal. Hence, farmers are advised to go for maize cultivation.

Cotton

     Cotton prices touched historic peak this year and started declining from April 2011 onwards.The reasons for the decline are attributed by global recession which led to lower demand for yarn and garments in international markets besides reduction in China’s cotton consumption (40 %). World cotton area is expected to rise by 7% in 2011/12 to 36 million hectares (largest in 17 years) leading to an increase of 9% in World cotton production.

     In India, cotton production in 2010-11 is nearly 312 lakh bales as per Cotton Advisory Board. Cotton sowing is progressing in North and central zones (Punjab 20%, Gujarat 15% and Karnataka 30% increase in area). Expecting a good weather condition, India’s cotton production will rise by 10-15% (335 lakh bales) in the ensuing season. Bt seeds are used by nearly 80-90% in sowing. 
In Tamil Nadu, usually the prices of cotton are higher in June to August but this year the prices are declining. Power cuts, water pollution problems in Tirupur, strike by mills and huge stock with ginners and stagnant demand made the prices to decline. The prices of cotton, lint and yarn had decreased in this season throughout the globe. Area under cotton in the state is estimated to remain the same (1.30 lakh hectares) and production will be around 5 lakh bales. The crop is sown in August and harvested in January-February. As the price declined drastically in the last season, the farmers are in a dilemma whether to cultivate cotton in the ensuing season. To facilitate cotton farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) analyzed the past 15 year prices that prevailed in Tirupur market and also conducted Traders survey in cotton markets and confirmed that the price of cotton (long staple varieties) will rule around Rs.3,000 to Rs.3,500 per quintal from November 2011 to March 2012. Hence farmers are advised to reduce area under cotton. As far as the current marketing season is concerned, there is no likelihood of price increase for the next 4 to 6 months.

Gingelly

     Gingelly is one of the most important oilseed crops of India and also grown in Tamil Nadu in Adipattam and its production depends mainly on weather. Global area under gingelly during last year was around 77.00 lakh hectares and production was around 39.77 lakh tonnes. India, Myanmar, Sudan, China, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Uganda are the major gingelly growing countries which together account for 79 per cent of the total global area. In India, gingelly production during 2010-11 was 7.55 lakh tonnes and it was 7.60 lakh tonnes during 2009-10. West Bengal, Rajasthan, Orissa, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu together accounted for 95 per cent of the total production of India. West Bengal ranks first with a production of 1.50 lakh tonnes.
In Tamil Nadu, gingelly crop is usually grown in two seasons during Thaipattam (Jan -Feb) and Adipattam (July-August). In 2009-10, area under gingelly crop was about 0.63 lakh hectares. Production of gingelly during 2009-10 was 0.29 lakh tonnes compared to 0.32 lakh tonnes during 2008-09. Erode, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Karur, Cuddalore, Thoothukudi and Salem are the major gingelly producing districts in Tamil Nadu. Traders procure gingelly from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat states. According to trade sources, there was a reduction in area under gingelly in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. To facilitate to take up sowing decisions in Adipattam, NAIP-DEMIC analyzed the prices that prevailed in Sivagiri Regulated market .It is forecasted that during harvest of red gingelly, the price will be around Rs. 46-50 per kg (October-December, 2011). If the crop is affected by rains during harvest period it may reduce to Rs. 38-40 per kg. Based on the price forecasted ,the farmers may go for gingelly cultivation. Seed treatment with 4 gm of Trichoderma viride for one kg of seed to avoid pest and disease and sowing in right time are recommended.

For details contact:-
Dr.N.Ajjan,
Director, 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS),
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422-2431405.

Coconut Prices may decrease this Season (Aug 2011)

     Indonesia, Philippines and India are the major coconut producing countries in the world. According to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) world copra production was 5.89 million tonnes during the year 2010-11. As per Ministry of Agriculture, India produced 15,730 million nuts from an area of 18.95 lakh hectares during 2009-10. Tamil Nadu which ranked number two in production after Kerala produced 36.92 lakh tonnes from of 3.9 lakh hectares during the above period. 

     With an increasing demand for fresh coconuts India is exporting coconut products to Gulf countries. According to provisional figures of the Coconut Development Board for 2011, the total coconut products export was Rs.550 crore and it was expected to further improve this year. India meets more than half its edible-oil demand through imports, buying palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia and soybean oil from Brazil and Argentina. The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said the country imported a record quantity of 9.24 million tonnes of vegetable oils during the oil year 2009-10. And it is expected that the country may import about 9.37 million tonnes vegetable oils in the 2010-11 year, including 7.6 million tonne palm oil, also an all-time high according to USDA estimates. 

     Since production was good this season in Tamil Nadu, arrivals also continue to be good. Arrivals from Karnataka has started and it will continue. Conversion of copra has commenced as well; oil arrivals are also good and thereby coconut price had decreased to Rs. 6-8/nut which was Rs. 9-12/nut during the last six month period. As per trade sources the fall in coconut oil price was due to easing global edible oil market. Given this scenario farmers are interested to know the prices that are likely to prevail during August, September 2011. To help farmers in order to take proper marketing decisions, based on the market survey and prevailing market sentiments, an econometric analysis of coconut prices that prevailed in Pollachi market was undertaken by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University. As per the results of the analysis the price of coconut during August, September 2011 will be in the range of Rs.6-8 per nut in Pollachi area. In other places it will be less than this price. During festival seasons i.e., during Dhasara and Deepavali the prices would increase. From October to February increased prices could be realized. Hence farmers are recommended to adjust their harvesting accordingly or store the harvested nuts and sell after October.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Dr.P.Paramaguru 
Professor 
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-6611284 

Farmers Advised to Sell Sunflower seeds immediately  (Aug 2011)

     Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) is an important oilseed crop in India. It is one of the fastest growing oilseed crops. Sunflower is a major source of vegetable oil in the world. India contributes nearly 9.68 and 4.77 per cent to the world oilseed acreage and production respectively. It is good for heart patients. About 35-40 per cent is the oil recovery from sunflower seeds. Its cake is rich in protein and is used as a cattle and poultry feed. 

     It has been observed that sunflower was grown in about 23.71 million hectares of land with production of 32.39 million tonnes during 2009 in the world. Russia was the largest producer of sunflower occupying 23.60 percent of area with 19.93 percent of production in the world during the same period. The other major sunflower producing countries are Ukraine (19.64 percent), Argentina (7.67 percent), China (6.04 percent), France (5.29 percent) and USA (4.25 percent) during the same period. 

     Sunflower occupies the fourth place among oilseed crops in terms of acreage and production. In India, Sunflower seed production in Kharif (2009-2010) was 3.2 lakh tonnes and the same was 1.35 lakh tonnes in kharif 2010-11. The major producers of sunflower are Karnataka (44.44 percent), Maharashtra (25.93 percent) and Andhra Pradesh (22.22 percent). 

     The total import of vegetable oils in the first two months of the current oil year (November, 2010 to October 2011) declined by eight per cent to 14.21 lakh tonnes compared to 15.41 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period, an year ago. Total oilseed production in 2011/12 is forecasted at 35.6 million tonnes, up by 3 percent over 2010/11. The import estimate includes 7 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.4 million tonnes of soy oil, 600,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and 15,000 tonnes of other edible oils. With increase in domestic availability of edible oil in 2010/11, there is a likelihood of reduction in import of edible oils. 

     The total area of sunflower and production in Tamil Nadu during 2008-2009 were 0.29 lakh hectares, and 0.34 lakh tonnes respectively and productivity was 1334 kg/ha. Karur, Trichy, Dindigul, Thoothukudi and Thiruvannamalai are the major sunflower growing districts in the state.

     To facilitate farmers in taking a better marketing decision about the sale of chitirai sown sunflower which is now arriving to market the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted a market survey at Vellakovil Regulated market, the major market centre for sunflower and analyzed the past 11 years price data of sunflower seed prevailed in this market. The econometric analysis confirmed that the price of sunflower seed will be in the range of Rs.31-34 per kg during September-November 2011. Since there is limited chances for the prices to increase, it is recommended that farmers can sell the sunflower after harvest without going for storage.

For further details contact:

NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details Please Contact:

Dr. K. Ganesamoorthy
Professor and Head
Department of Oil seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-3
Phone No: - 022-2450812
Mobile No: - 9360339737

Farmers advised to take up sowing of Kadaibogam Potato (Sept 2011)

     Potato is grown in 150 countries throughout the world and more than a billion people worldwide consume it. The top ten producers in the world are China, Russia, USA, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Belarus, Netherlands and France which together contribute about 70% of the total production. World potato production in the year 2009-2010 was 329.5 million tonnes.

     In India, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar and Gujarat accounted for more than 80 per cent share in total production. According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF) statistics, area and production of potato in Tamil Nadu during 2010-2011 was 4600 hectares and 97200 tonnes with the productivity of 21.13 tonnes / hectare. Potato is a major vegetable widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu whereas, it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul (2671 ha), Nilgiris (1292 ha), Krishnagiri (245 ha) and Erode (155 ha) districts. 

     High cost of cultivation, labour shortage and huge arrivals from other States at cheap prices made the Nilgiris farmers to shift to other hilly vegetables. Reduction in planting area coupled with crop damage (flood) resulted in higher price of potato in Mettupalayam market during May and June 2011. Potato (Kadaibogam season) is sown in the months of September and October and harvested from December to January. As sowing is progressing the farmers are eager to know about the price of Kadaibogam potato in order to take their sowing decisions.

     The NAIP – Domestic Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University had analyzed the 21 years (1990-2011) prices of potato that prevailed in Mettupalayam market. The price analysis and opinion survey of the traders revealed that during the months of December, 2011 and January, 2012 which is the main harvest period of Kadaibogm potato, the prices are likely to be around Rs.650-750 per bag (45kg per bag). Hence farmers are advised to take up Kadaibogam potato sowing. Seed treatment with fungicides likes Aretan or Agallol and proper pre harvest care are recommended.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact:

Dr.R.M.Vijayakumar
Professor and Head
Horticultural Research Station 
Vijayanagaram
Udhagamandalam-643001
Phone: 0423-2442170
Cell: 9442351489

Chilli cultivation will be profitable (Oct 2011)

     India stands first in the production and consumption of chillies in the world. China, Pakistan, Peru and Bangladesh are the other major Chilli producers. Chillies are famous worldwide not only to add flavor and taste in the dishes but also used as colouring agent, oil and medicine.

     Chillies grown in India have so many special features. The kaddi and Guntur sannam varieties are known for its natural colour. Birds eye chilli is famous for its spiciness. Karnataka chilli is used for extracting oil. Due to these reasons many countries like Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Arab nations and America import Chillies from India.

     According to the latest report from the Indian Spices Board, during April-July 2010, India exported 87,500 tonnes (valued Rs.53,076 lakhs), and in 2011, in the same period it exported 54,400 tonnes (valued Rs.51, 075 lakhs) of red chillies. This is 38 per cent lower in quantity than the same period in the previous year. Due to heavy rainfall at the end of 2010 in countries like China and Pakistan Chillies production was affected to a large extent at world level and thereby India exported higher quantum during 2010.

     Tamil Nadu occupies seventh position in Chillies production in India. During 2008 - 09 Tamil Nadu had produced 32,924 tonnes of chillies from 64,412 hectares. Ramanathapuram (samba), Thoothukudi (gundu), Sivagangai (samba), Virudhunagar (samba), Tirunelveli (samba) and Sankarankovil (samba, gundu) are the major producers of chillies in the State. Ramanathapuram and Thoothukudi share 47 per cent and 62.5 per cent of chilly production and area. 
Tamil Nadu produces 58 per cent of the chillies under rainfed condition. During 2010, Virudunagar market samba dry chillies was sold for Rs.31-49 per kg but now it costs around Rs.82-89 per kg. This increase in price is due to reduction in chilli area in Andhra Pradesh in 2011.

     In Tamil Nadu during October-November chillies are raised in nursery or directly sown and harvested during February-March. Peak arrivals flow during April-May. Farmers are eager to know the price of chillies expected during the harvest period. Based on this, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in the Directorate of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the dry chilli prices that prevailed in Virudhunagar regulated market and predicted that the price will be ruling between Rs.60-70 per kg in February-March 2012. The area under chillies cultivation has decreased in Andhra Pradesh which, will favour Tamil Nadu farmers to get good price. The farmers are therefore advised to take up chilli sowing during October 2011 to get the above price during harvest time. They should treat the seeds with trichoderma 10 gm/kg seed or drench the nursery bed with Ridomil @ 2 gm/litre as preventive measure against damping off in chillies. 

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405.

For Technical Details contact:
Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-6611284.

Price forecast for Karthigai pattam Crops (Nov 2011)

     In Tamil Nadu, Karthigai pattam is an important cropping season for rainfed cultivation in the State. North East monsoon coincides with Karthigai pattam (Oct-Nov) in Tamil Nadu. The rainfall followed by winter season is suitable for crops like Bengal gram, Coriander and Cumbu. The price behavior for Karthigai pattam crops were analysed by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies(CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University to facilitate decision making by farmers on crop planting for this season.

Bengal gram 

     Chana (Chickpea or Bengalgram) is an important pulse crop in India, which is a rich source of high-quality protein. It contains 25% protein and 60% carbohydrate. India is the largest producer of chickpea followed by Pakistan, Turkey and Iran. Globally Bengal gram was cultivated in 11.08 million hectares leading to a production of 9.77 million tonnes in 2009-10. Sowing of Gram is taken up in November – December and harvesting is done in February- March. During 2009-10, India produced 7.48 million tonnes from an area of 8.17 million hectare and productivity was 895 kg per ha. Madhya Pradesh is the largest Chana producing state in India followed by Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. 

     In Tamil Nadu, Bengal gram is mainly sown in rabi season. The total area and production of Chana in Tamil Nadu during, 2008-09 was 0.06 lakh hectares and 0.04 lakh tonnes and productivity was 637 kg/ha. The major chana producing districts are Coimbatore, Dindigul, Virudhunagar, Madurai, Dharmapuri and Trichy which contributes about 96 percent of the total Bengal gram production of the state.

     Trade sources revealed that expected arrivals from other major producing countries during November–December followed by local arrivals during February– March will keep its prices firm. Bengal gram prices prevailed in Udumalpet market for last nine years were collected and analyzed. DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price of Bengal gram will hover around Rs, 3200-3500 per quintal during February-March, 2012. Hence farmers are advised to take up chickpea sowing to get remunerative prices during harvest period. 

Coriander

     Coriander seed is one of the most important spices for the flavouring of food and also known as Dhania in India. Coriander seeds and leaves are used as common food flavoring agents and for their medicinal properties. The green leaves of coriander are also used for culinary purposes. The global production of coriander seed is estimated to be around 6 lakh tonnes during 2008-09. The major global producers are India, Morocco, Canada, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, China, USA, Argentina and Mexico.

     Coriander is mainly a Rabi crop in India and sowing starts in the middle of October and extends until November end. In India, area and production of coriander during 2009-10 was 3.60 lakh hectares and 2.37 lakh tonnes respectively. Coriander area and production declined during 2009-10 as compared to 2008-09 (area 3.97 lakh hectares and production 2.42 lakh tonnes) because of unfavorable weather conditions. In India, coriander is cultivated mainly in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. 

     In Tamil Nadu, area and production of coriander during 2008-09 was 14.1 thousand hectares and 4.80 thousand tonnes respectively. Major coriander growing districts are Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, Ramanathapuram, Tiruppur, Trichy and Cuddalore. Nearly 93 per cent of the total coriander area is grown as an unirrigated / rainfed crop in Tamil Nadu. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) had econometrically analyzed the monthly data of coriander prices that prevailed in the last ten years in Virudhunagar Regulated market. The price of coriander seed during February to April, 2012, i.e., during harvest, is estimated to be in the range of Rs, 3100 -3300 per quintal. Based on this price farmers are advised to take their decision on sowing of coriander. 

Cumbu 

     Cumbu is the most widely grown type of millet in India. It is grown in Africa and the Indian subcontinent since prehistoric times. In India, during 2009-10, Cumbu was cultivated in 8.90 million hectares with a production of 6.50 million tonnes through a productivity of 731 kg/ha. Cumbu is mainly a Rabi crop in Tamil Nadu and sowing starts in October-November. In Tamil Nadu, it is grown in an area of about 0.56 lakh hectares with a production of 0.84 lakh tonnes through a productivity of 1483 kg per hectare during 2008-09. Thoothukudi district has the highest production of 22,994 tonnes followed by, Villupuram, Thiruvannamalai, Virudhunagar, Theni and Dindigul districts. As per the econometric analysis done by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, on the last 16 years cumbu price of Kovilpatti market, the price of Cumbu during Feb-March 2012, i.e., during harvest of karthigai sown crop would revolve around Rs 800 to 850 per quintal. Based on this price farmers are advised to take their decision on sowing of cumbu. 

Sell coconut on harvest (Nov 2011)

     Coconut is known for its great versatility as seen in the many commercial and industrial uses of its different parts. It occupies a significant position in socio-cultural needs of the Indian society and is gaining considerable importance in the national economy as a potential source of rural employment and income generation among the plantation crops in coconut growing areas. Coconut prices have been facing violent fluctuations in the recent past. While prices were quoting about Rs 4-5/ nut during May 2010, in May 2011 it was about Rs 8.5-9.5. So in order to help farmers in knowing about the likely prices of coconut during November-Dec 2011, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, studied the coconut prices that prevailed in Pollachi market, including conducting traders survey, based on which conclusions were drawn.

     The prices of coconut and coconut products in the country are mainly centered around two major coconut products viz., copra and coconut oil. The price of coconut is usually influenced by the price of coconut oil prevailing in the wholesale markets. However, the coconut oil prices are characterized by wide and violent fluctuation and erratic price trends. The variations in quality of matured coconut, size of nuts, copra content, oil content, marketing cost, marketing methods of fresh tender coconuts and matured coconuts are also deciding factors for the price received by the coconut farmers.

     The onset of the North East monsoon over Tamil Nadu and Sabarimala pilgrimage season could also reduce coconut conversion to copra and further to coconut oil and reduce arrivals. This could also boost coconut oil prices. But with sunny days the arrivals of copra will increase and price stabilization would take place. Traders felt that if coconut oil prices stabilize in the coming weeks, the price recovery could also be realized. Considering all these, DEMIC confirms that depending on quality and size, the farm gate prices of coconut during November-December 2011 will be ruling between Rs 7 to Rs 9 per nut if current market sentiments continue. The prices are not likely to increase upto the end of January 2012. Hence farmers are recommended to sell coconut on harvest.

Store Kadaibogam Potato and Sell in January, February (Dec 2011)

     Potato is a major food crop, grown in more than 100 countries globally. India produced 402 lakh tonnes of potato from an area of 18.95 lakh hectares (ha) during 2010-11 which is 10 per cent higher compared to last year. Potato is a major vegetable widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu whereas, it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, The Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. Tamil Nadu produced about 97,200 tonnes of potato from 4,600 ha in 2010-11 according to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation. Trade sources reveal that exports will pick up during Pongal festival. So far, India has exported about 1,21,407 tonnes of potato in 2010-2011 which is 26 per cent higher than that of 2009-10.

     Potato farmers in Tamil Nadu have raised queries whether the Kadaibogam potato sown in September-October, 2011and to be harvested from 15th December onwards will fetch higher prices or not; and whether to sell immediately or store for better prices. To answer these queries, the NAIP – Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the past 21 years prices that prevailed at Nilgiris Cooperative Marketing Society (NCMS), Mettupalayam. As per the results of the analysis the prices of potato will hover around Rs.14-16 per kg in December, 2011 and Rs.15-17 per kg during January, 2012. In February 2012, the prices are expected to be around Rs.19-20 per kg. After 15th February, the prices may start declining due to arrivals of Kolar potato. Hence, farmers are recommended to store the potato to be harvested in December 2011 and sell in January and February 2012, matching Pongal festival and not later than 15th February.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact:
Dr.N.Selvaraj 
Professor and Head
Horticultural Research Station 
Vijayanagaram
Udhagamandalam-643001
Phone: 0423-2442170
Cell: 94430 52219

Maize prices to rule steady upto April, 2012 (Jan 2012)

     During 2010-11, maize was cultivated in 167 million hectares (ha) leading to a production of 860 million tonnes globally. During 2011, global maize area and production reached a historical high of 167 million ha and 860 million tonnes which is 21 per cent and 43 per cent higher in area and production compared to 2001. USA, China, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and India together accounts for 75 per cent of the world maize production. The global demand for maize in the ethanol sector is strong enough to support the increased production. |

     The major growing states that contribute to maize production in India are Karnataka (18 %), Andhra Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (11 %), Bihar (9 %), Rajasthan (7 %), Madhya Pradesh (6 %), Uttar Pradesh (6 %) Tamil Nadu (5 %), and Himachal Pradesh (3 %). Productivity of maize is highest in Tamil Nadu (4.68 tonnes/ ha) followed by Andhra Pradesh (3.52 tonnes / ha), Punjab (3.41 tonnes/ha) and Karnataka (2.42 tonnes/ha). 

     Around 11.44 lakh tonnes of maize is produced in Tamil Nadu annually. Maize is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode, Virudhunagar, Villupuram, Theni, Tiruchirapalli and Tirunelveli districts. These districts together contribute 90 per cent of the total area and production of maize in Tamil Nadu

     A major shift in maize cultivation has been observed in recent years. Shorter duration, less cost of cultivation, less water requirement and less risk compared to other crops are the causes for the shift towards maize cultivation in the state. We can expect the same trend during this season also. Trade sources report that this year the arrivals from Tamil Nadu will start only by end of December. Tamil Nadu poultry firms are now procuring maize from Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Poultry firms are not in a position to hold stocks since they expect a bulk crop from Tamil Nadu from December end. 

     Good crop arrivals in major growing states and expected export and domestic demand will keep the price to rule steady till December end. Soon after arrivals, poultry firms will procure the harvested maize to build their stocks for the forthcoming months. Hence there are lesser chances for the prices to decline much. Trade sources inform that there will be supply crunch after March and the price may go above Rs.1200/quintal since the demand for maize will exceed the supply.

     Farmers are interested to know whether the harvested produce could be sold immediately or stored for some time. To answer their queries and to guide them in taking a right decision, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the monthly prices that prevailed in Udumalpet market for the past fifteen years. The results indicated that after December 2011 to April, 2012 the price may rule around Rs.1,050-1,100 per quintal. After April, 2012 the prices are expected to increase above Rs.1200. 

     Hence farmers, who can store the produce, are recommended to store up to April, 2012 and sell the same. If not possible the produce could be sold immediately upon harvest since the prices are not likely to increase upto end of March, 2012.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003, Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact:

Dr.G. Nallathambi
Professor (Maize Breeding)
Centre for Plant Breeding and Genetics
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003, Phone: 0422-2450507
Cell no: 9486913279

Price forecast for Thai Pattam crops (Jan 2012)

     Thai Pattam (Jan-Feb) is one of the major seasons for sowing of many agricultural crops in Tamil Nadu. The crops are raised under irrigated conditions in this season. The major commercial crops sown during this season are maize, groundnut and small onion and farmers are eager to know what would be the prices of these commodities during their harvest. This information is essential to them as they can take a right sowing decision. To help them in doing so Domestic and Export Market Intelligence cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University is now releasing its price forecast for these crops.

Maize 

     One of the major sowing seasons for maize in Tamil Nadu is Thai Pattam (January-February). Farmers with irrigation facilities will be growing maize during this season. The produce will come to harvest by April & May 2012. Currently in Tamil Nadu, the price is ruling around Rs.1100 to Rs.1150 per quintal. NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the sixteen years prices that prevailed in Udumalpet market and predicted that the price will be ruling above Rs.1200 per quintal during April to June, 2012, i.e, during harvest of Thai sown crop. The continuous demand for maize in poultry industry and good export demand will help the prices to rule around higher side. Based on this, farmers are recommended to go for maize sowing in Thai pattam and get higher prices. They are advised to sow varieties/ hybrids with bold grains to fetch better prices. In 100 gram of maize grain if the number of grains is less than 350, higher prices could be received by farmers.

Groundnut

The area under groundnut in Tamil Nadu was 3.49 lakh hectares with a production of 3.50 lakh tonnes during Kharif 2011. The major groundnut producing districts are Thiruvannamalai (16.67 per cent), Villupuram (11.61 per cent), Vellore (10.58 per cent), Namakkal (7.15 per cent), Salem (5.31 per cent) and Erode (4.70 per cent). Thaipattam is one of the major sowing seasons for groundnut in Tamil Nadu. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell analyzed the past 20 years prices that prevailed in Sevur and Tindivanam Regulated Markets. The econometric analysis and market surveys revealed that during April to May -2012 farmers could get a price of Rs.35 to 40 / kg of groundnut pod at Regulated market, Sevur in Tirupur district. For groundnut kernels, a price of Rs. 40 to 45 / Kg could be realized by farmers at Tindivanam Regulated market. The relatively higher price for pod in Sevur market is mainly due to the fact that it goes to groundnut toffees, while the produce at Tindivanam market is mainly meant for oil purpose. During sowing, farmers are recommended to treat the seeds with Trichoderma viride @ 4g / kg of seed. Application of 400 kg /ha (200 kg at basal and 200 kg at second weeding followed by earthing up), has to be done to realize higher yields.

Small onion

     Tamil Nadu produces about 5.57 lakh tonnes of onion from 0.37 lakh hectares and more than 70 per cent of this is occupied by small onion.
Minimum Export Price (MEP) was increased to $170 to $475 per tonne from May 2011 to October 2011by Government of India to reduce exports and stablilise domestic prices. Prices started declining due to this, besides, increased arrivals. As on January 2012 Rs.12 per kg is the ruling price at farm level for good quality produce. Suddenly the Government of India has still reduced the MEP to $150 per tonne as on January 2012.

     At present the market is receiving the harvested produce from Thoothukudi, Tiruchirapalli, Dindigul and Coimbatore districts. Arrivals from Karnataka would be from mid January to March end. Trade sources informed that due to heavy stocks and decreased exports the price of onion has decreased. This makes the farmers to prefer bulb sowing over seed onion. The econometric analysis revealed that farmers could get a price of Rs.12-16 per kg during harvest of small onion, ie., from April to June 2012.

Spraying Maleic hydrazide at 2500 PPM 15 days before harvest to extend the shelf life of onion is recommended. Based on the above prices farmers can take a decision on sowing of small onion.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003, 
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact:
1. Dr.G. Nallathambi
Professor (Maize Breeding)
Centre for Plant Breeding and Genetics
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003, 
Phone: 0422-2450507
Cell no: 9486913279

2. Dr. K. Ganesamoorthy,
Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-2450812
Mobile No: - 9360339737

3. Dr. L.Pugalenthi,
Professor & Head,
Department of Vegetable crops,
Horticulture College and Research Institute,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-6611283
Mobile No: - 9443498469

Price forecast for Beetroot and Carrot  (Feb 2012)

     Tamil Nadu accounts for 2.62 lakh hectares of vegetable area with a production of 77.65 lakh tonnes. Brinjal, Bhendi, Onion, Tomato, Drumstick, Bitter gourd and snake gourd are the plain vegetables grown in more area. In Dindigul and Nilgris districts, hilly vegetables like potatoes, beetroot, beans, carrot, cabbage, etc., are cultivated and marketed in Ottanchatram and Mettupalayam Markets. NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has conducted price analysis and market survey for beetroot and carrot to help farmers in taking sowing decisions for these two crops based on the prices that might prevail during harvest of the same. 

Beetroot

     Beetroot is a purple root vegetable. It is also known as the table beet, garden beet, red beet or simply as beet. It is the most common variety in North America, Central America and Britain. Beetroot has its origin from Russia & Ukraine. Beetroot is a rich source of carbohydrates, a good source of protein and has high levels of important vitamins, minerals and micro nutrients. Beetroot cultivation in India is mainly seen in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal and Maharashtra.

     The total area of beet root in Tamil Nadu during 2008-2009 was 1038 hectares. Tiruppur (38.63 per cent), Coimbatore (21.58 per cent), Nilgiris (10.89 per cent), Dindigul (9.92 per cent), Theni (8.77 per cent), Erode (5.68 per cent) and Krishnagiri (4.24 per cent) are the major beetroot growing districts in the State. The major market centres in Tamil Nadu are Meetupalyam Vegetables commission mundies and Farmers shandies in these regions. The major growing seasons of Beet root in Tamil Nadu are Feb-March & July-August. The months of peak arrivals are May-July and lean arrivals are from November to December. 
To facilitate the farmers in taking a better sowing decision, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) analyzed the past 7 year prices prevailed in Mettupalayam market which caters to the beetroot grown in the Nilgiris and Palladam areas. Results of the econometric analysis revealed that the price of beet root during harvest period, i.e., from May to July 2012 will be in the range Rs.16-18/kg when sold through farmers’ shandies. When sold through commission mandies it would be less by Rs.2-3 per kg and when sold at farm itself it would be less by Rs. 4-5 per kg. Based on the above prices farmers can take a decision on sowing beet root. 

Carrot

     India is the second largest producer of vegetables in the world, accounting for about 16% of global vegetable production. In India total vegetable production was 1337.38 lakh tonnes from 79.851 lakh hectares during 2009-10. The major carrot growing states are Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Tamil Nadu.

     The total area of carrot in Tamil Nadu during 2008-2009 was 3498 hectares. The Nilgiris (67.81 per cent), Dindigul (28.75 per cent) and Krishnagiri (4.11 per cent) are the major carrot growing districts in the State. The major market centres in Tamil Nadu are Mettupalayam Vegetables commission mandies, Hosur and Farmers shandies in different regions. Carrots are mainly sown in February and come to harvest by May. May and June are the peak arrival season for carrots in Tamil Nadu. 

     To facilitate the farmers in taking a better sowing decision, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) analyzed the past 6 year prices that prevailed in Mettupalayam market. Results of the econometric analysis revealed that the price that of carrot during harvest period, i.e., during May, June 2012 will be in the range Rs.18-20 per kg. Based on the above prices farmers can take a decision on sowing carrot. 

For details contact:-

Dr.N.Ajjan,
Director 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS),
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone-0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Dr. L.Pugalenthi,
Professor & Head,
Department of Vegetable crops,
Horticulture College and Research Institute,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-6611374
0422-6611283

Garlic prices to remain stable (Feb 2012)

     Garlic (Allium sativum) is one of the important bulb crops grown and used as a spice or condiment throughout India. It is consumed by almost all people who take onion. Garlic has higher nutritive value than other spice crops. It is rich in proteins, phosphorous, potassium, calcium, magnesium and carbohydrates. Ascorbic acid content is very high in green garlic.

     China is the world’s largest producer of garlic with 56.85% of the total global production followed by India (15 per cent), Bangladesh (2.50 per cent), Myanmar (2.19 per cent), Korea (2.19 per cent) and Russia (1.98 per cent). From being a net importer of garlic, India has turned into a big supplier of garlic in the global market due to shortfall in the Chinese crop and good domestic production during 2009-10. Apart from its traditional market of Bangladesh, Indian garlic is now exported to Pakistan, Thailand and Malaysia. According to Spices Board data, garlic exports increased during 2010-11 by 62.14 % in volume terms and 43.60 % in value terms to 17300 tonnes and Rs.6977.31 lakhs respectively. India produces the small cloved varieties, with a high number of cloves, which the domestic market consumes. However, for export, bigger clove garlic with lesser number of cloves is preferred.

     India ranks second in area under garlic cultivation with 2.09 lakh hectares and also second position in production with 12.64 lakh tonnes as on 2010-11. Madhya Pradesh is the leading garlic-producing state accounting for 26 percent of total area followed by Gujarat (19.11 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (16.77 per cent), Rajasthan (11 per cent), Orissa (5.25 per cent) and Bihar (2.03 per cent). Garlic is sown in September to October and is harvested from February to March. A variety of garlic called Ooty 1, which was released by TNAU is popular among the farmers of the Nilgiri district.

     In Tamil Nadu, garlic is grown in two seasons viz, October-November and June-July. The area under garlic in the State is about 351 hectares. Annual production of garlic during 2008-09 was 2067 tonnes and productivity was 5889 kg per hectare. Dindigul, The Nilgiris and Erode are the major garlic producing districts in Tamil Nadu. Traders procure garlic from Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat.

     To facilitate farmers in taking a better marketing decision about the sale of garlic which starts arriving from February onwards from the Nilgiris, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted a market survey at Mettupalayam Garlic Mandy, the major market centre for garlic and analyzed the past 5 years price data of garlic that prevailed in this market. The econometric analysis confirmed that the price of garlic will be in the range of Rs75-80 per kg during harvest in February March 2012 and there seems to be little chance for the prices to improve afterwards. Hence farmers are recommended to sell their garlic upon harvest without going in for storage. 

For further details contact:

Dr.N.Ajjan,
Director 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS),
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone-0422-2431405

For Technical Details contact:

Dr.P. Parama Guru
Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-6611284, Mobile: 9442328942

Farmers Recommended to take up Sowing of Neerbogam Potato (Feb 2012)

     Potato is a high yielding short duration crop. The top ten producers in the world are China, Russia, India, USA, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Belarus, Netherlands and France. These countries together contribute about 70 percent of the total production. India produced 402 lakh tonnes of potato from an area of 18.93 lakh hectares (ha) during 2010-11. Tamil Nadu produced about 97200 tonnes of potato from 4600 ha in 2010-11 according to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation. Potato is a major vegetable widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu whereas, it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. Last year potato price increased from Rs.13-15 per Kg in May, 2011 and Rs. 14-16 per kg in June, 2011. 

     Farmers are anxious to know whether the same trend will prevail for the crop to be sown after 15th February, 2012 (Neerbogam season) which will flow to the market in May and June, 2012. To answer these queries NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the past 22 years price of potato besides conducting surveys in Mettupalayam markets. 

     The arrival of Nilgiris potato is maximum during June to December. Peak arrival is during August to September in Mettupalayam market. Trade sources reported that arrivals from Kolar in Karnataka and Agra in Uttar Pradesh will be in the months of February to May. Since Karnataka is the major competitor for potato, arrivals from Kolar and Agra decide the potato price in Tamil Nadu. The DEMIC analysis confirms that the prices will rule around Rs.13-16 per kg in May-June, 2012. Hence the farmers are advised to take up sowing in the Neerbogam season. Seed treatment with fungicides likes Aretan or Agallol and proper pre harvest care are recommended.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003, 
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical details please contact:
Dr.N.Selvaraj
Professor and Head 
Horticultural Research Station 
Vijayanagaram
Udhagamandalam-643001
Phone: 0423-2442170
Cell No: 94430 52219

Coconut Prices to Remain Stable for Next Three Months (March 2012)

     Coconut prices are in downward trend in Tamil Nadu markets as demand continued to remain weak. Prices eased to Rs 5-7 per nut in Tamil Nadu markets as against around Rs.10 a nut during April, May 2011. According to trade estimates, copra production might touch 10.5 lakh tonnes this year. Of this, the share of Tamil Nadu is expected to be 40 per cent, Kerala 30 per cent and, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh put together is 25 per cent. There is sufficient availability of copra in Tamil Nadu. Without adequate industrial demand, coconut oil prices are not expected to make much of a recovery, sources said. The low price of palm kernel oil is seen as another reason for the fall in coconut oil prices besides the frequent power shutdowns in the State. In 2009-10 it was 3.69 million tonnes as against 3.42 million tonnes during 2008-09. Production from Tamil Nadu is not expected to register any further significant fall as per trade sources and it is expected to be robust this year in the State.

     National level coconut production in 2009-10 was 10.77 million tonnes which is 6.13 percent higher than the previous year (2008-09). Market experts do not expect an upward trend in the price, but expect a reduction due to the seasonal increase in production as peak arrivals start in summer season. In Pollachi market, the price rose to an all-time high of Rs.13 per kg of coconut during 2011. It has now dropped to Rs.9 per kg of coconut in January 2012. The prime reason for the price fall was the low demand and high production. So, going by the present trends and prevailing market sentiments traders said there will not be an immediate spurt in coconut prices. In this connection Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed Pollachi market prices for coconut and based on the results of the analysis it is forecasted that the coconut prices would be ruling between Rs.5 to Rs.7 per nut from March to May 2012. There is little chance for the price to increase. Hence it is recommended that farmers can go for sale of coconut upon harvest without resorting to storage. In markets other than Pollachi, the prices will be still lower.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-6611284 

Masipattam Sown Cotton Prices to Remain Stable (March 2012)

     Cotton, the important raw material of textile industry saw a new high in 2011 ie., Rs. 6200 per quintal in March 2011 and dropped to Rs.4000 per quintal afterwards for long staple varieties because of high production and low demand due to the global economic crisis. The world cotton production has increased to 26.78 million tonnes in 2011-12 from 25.10 million tonnes last year. The international cotton prices have also steadied in January 2012 after decreasing for almost ten months and the main reason behind this price stabilization is the Chinese purchases.

     In India, according to Cotton Advisory Board, cotton production will be around 345 lakh bales in 2011-12 (Oct-Sep), with area having increased to 121.91 lakh hectares from 111.42 lakh hectares last year. Government of India removed the export restrictions in September 2011 and put cotton on the Open General License (OGL). Hence Cotton exports from India, the world's second-largest grower, is expected to increase by 14% this year to 80 lakh bales. So far 46 lakh bales had been exported and by March end it is expected to be 55 to 60 lakh bales. In spite of higher production, declined domestic intake and power cuts and declining cotton seed prices, factors like China’s procurement and strengthening of dollar give hopes of prices to remain stable.

     Tamil Nadu being the major consumer of cotton (47%) with nearly 2000 mills, not even produces five lakh bales. In 2011-12, the area under cotton was 1.22 lakh hectares. Masipattam (Feb-Mar) is a special season for cotton in Tamil Nadu and the variety Surabhi is cultivated mostly in this season. To facilitate farmers to take up sowing decisions, NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed 15 years of cotton prices that prevailed in Avinashi and Konganapuram Cooperative Marketing Society and it is informed that the Bt Cotton (Long staple) varieties sown during August to September and arriving in the market at present will get Rs. 3,900 to Rs. 4,200 per quintal for the next three months. If China stops buying Indian cotton, the prices will decline and there is very less chances for increase in prices. Hence farmers are recommended to sell cotton immediately.

     For the Masipattam sown cotton (Long Staple) prices will be around Rs. 4300-4600 per quintal during June to September 2012, ie during harvest of the masipattam sown crop. Hence farmers are recommended to take up masipattam cotton sowing based on above said prices. 

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head
Department of Cotton
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-2456297 

Sell Red chillies upon harvest ( Apr 2012)

     India is a leading producer of chilli, contributing close to 43 per cent of the world’s production, followed by China (8.6 per cent), and Peru (5.6 per cent). Globally, Indian chillies are of superior quality which makes India the largest exporter of chillies. Indian chilli was exported to Malaysia (4554 tonnes), Sri lanka (3478 tonnes) and Bangladesh (2817 tonnes) in 2009-10. According to the latest report from the Indian Spices Board, during April- July 2011, India exported 54,400 tonnes (valued Rs.51,075 lakhs ) of red chillies.

     Domestic demand is good for chilli and the spice processing industry is growing at a very fast rate and is creating additional demand for the commodity. Chilli production is expected to be higher this year and the estimates vary between 10-12 lakh tonnes to 12-13 lakh tonnes against an estimated 8 lakh tonnes last year. Domestically, Andhra Pradesh contributes 49 % of total production, followed by Karnataka (14 per cent), Orissa (7 per cent), Maharashtra (5 per cent), West Bengal (5 per cent), Rajasthan (5 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (4 per cent).

     Chillies produced in Tamil Nadu will hit markets in kovilpatti, Sathur, Sankarankoil, Rajapalayam, Kamuthi, Muthukulathur and Virudhunagar from second fortnight of March. However, at present produce is coming to Virudhunagar market only. Last year farmers received Rs.80-90 per kg. and compared to last year the price of red chillies decreased this year.

     Farmers are interested to know whether the prices will increase in the coming months or remain stagnant. To help them the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore analysed the price of red chillies. The results showed that farmers could get a price of Rs.53-55 per Kg during April –May 2012. There may be increase in price in June 2012 but that may not cover drying and storage costs. Hence farmers are recommended to sell the red chillies upon harvest after drying.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405.

For Technical Details contact:

Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-6611284.

Sell Blackgram and Greengram upon Harvest (Apr 2012)

     Price of major pulses after reaching peak level in the previous year has started declining in the wholesale market. Among pulses, greengram and blackgram are important ones in Tamil Nadu. Current ruling prices are Rs.37 and 36 for blackgram and greengram respectively on an average in Villupuram regulated market. In Villupuram regulated market, wholesale blackgram price attained its maximum of around Rs.56/kg during May 2010, whereas for greengram it was around Rs.62/kg. The current decline is due to bumper production in 2010-11. Eventhough current year production is lower than previous year still for our country it is high. Therefore the prices started to stabilize in wholesale markets and expected to stabilize.

     According to the Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA), annual imports are expected to remain on the same level as last year (2.6 million tonnes) despite the dip in the production. According to the fourth advance estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses production in India was 18.09 million tonnes in 2010-11 while as per second advance estimate, the Government expects pulse production to touch 17.28 million tonnes during 2011-12. It is 4.48 percent less compared to last year, but both these years, production was way above for India. Demand for pulses has been estimated at 20.12 million tonnes. Pulses import is expected to touch 2.8 million tonnes till March 2012 which is slightly higher than last year, which was at 2.6 Million tonnes, according to Department of Consumer Affairs-Food and Public Distribution, Government of India.

     Despite fall in the production of pulses this year compared to last year, prices are expected to remain stable. The current market also is stable. According to fourth advance estimate, national production of blackgram and greengram during the year 2010-11 was 1.74 and 1.82 million tonnes respectively. Now it is harvesting season for greengram and blackgram especially in the rice fallows. Hence farmers wanted to know whether to keep the produce under storage in anticipation of better price or sell immediately. In this regard Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the prices of blackgram and greengram that prevailed during the last ten years in Villupuram regulated market. As per the results of the analysis the prices of the above crops for the period April, May 2012 are forecasted as Rs.34-37 and Rs.34-36 per kg for blackgram and Greengram, respectively. Upto end of May 2012 there are no chances for the prices to increase. Hence farmers are recommended to sell blackgram and greengram upon harvest without going for storage.

For Marketing details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS)
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003 
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Professor and Head,
Department of Pulses,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-2450498

Reduce Area under Turmeric Cultivation- Farmers Advised (Apr 2012)

     Turmeric price started declining from September 2011. In 2010, the turmeric price was Rs.17000 per quintal and it was on par with gold and thus the area under turmeric cultivation increased nearly 30 percent. Apart from this new turmeric cultivators, districts and States which were not cultivating turmeric entered turmeric cultivation (example: Punjab). It is expected that last year stock and this year production accounts to nearly 1 crore bags (75 kg/bag). 

     India’s domestic consumption and export demand requires 65-75 lakh bags. As the supply is above domestic and export demand, the price started declining. There is confusion among farmers whether to cultivate turmeric in next season and if sown will it burn the fingers this year? .To answer the questions, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has analysed the situation and given the suggestions.

     So far, only 25 per cent of turmeric has arrived in the market. Currently turmeric from Dharmapuri, Attur, Mysore are arriving in the market. Turmeric from Coimbatore, Kodumudi, Sivagiri and Erode will be arriving from next month. Turmeric arrivals will start increasing in major markets in India (Nizamabad, Duggirala, Sangli, Salem and Erode). 

     But in the months of April, May procurement by the North Indian merchants is very less. However turmeric traders buy to stock turmeric. So turmeric price will not go down below Rs.3000 per quintal in the months of April, May. Sowing reports available in July can only predict the up or downtrend of turmeric price. The same condition prevails in Andhra Pradesh which is the largest producer of turmeric in India. The price of turmeric is expected to be around Rs. 3200-3500 per quintal in next three months. To avoid such a drastic price decline in the coming season, turmeric farmers are advised to decrease the extent of cultivation. At least fifty per cent of area should be reduced in this year. If the area is reduced, next year (February, 2013) the price will increase. 

     In Tamil Nadu, Salem turmeric gets better price. Turmeric varieties like PTS 10 and BSR are much cultivated now. According to trade sources, PTS 10 variety’s quality is almost parallel to the quality of Salem turmeric. Consumption of turmeric is higher in northern India. Erode, PTS 10 varieties are preferred in Patna, West Bengal and Varanasi. Salem and Nizamabad varieties are exported to Dubai and Gulf countries. 

     Farmers are suggested to reduce the area under turmeric cultivation in the coming season, to control the price decline. Farmers who want to store the produce can avail storage facilities in the Regulated market, Central and State warehouses and Co-operative godowns.

Sell Sunflower Seeds on Harvest (apr 2012)

     Sunflower is one of the important oil seed crops in India. Sunflower oil is light in taste and appearance and supplies more Vitamin E than any other vegetable oil. It is a combination of monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fats with low saturated fat levels. Sunflower oil is mainly used in food products. This may help keep the level of ‘good cholesterol’ high in the body, thereby countering the ill -effects of ‘bad cholesterol’.

     Total world production of sunflower seeds in 2011-2012 may amount to approximately 39.15 million tonnes (2010-2011: 35.4 million tonnes). Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, China, Turkey, United States, Spain and India are the major producers of sunflower seeds globally. 

     India is the fifth largest producer of oilseeds in the world, after USA, China, Brazil and Argentina. It is also one of the major edible oil importers at global level. In the oil year 2010-11, India imported more than 90 lakh tonnes of edible oils. Total oilseed production in 2011-12 is forecasted at 35.6 million tonnes, up by 3 percent over 2010-11. The import estimate includes 7 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.4 million tonnes of soy oil, 6 lakh tonnes of sunflower oil and 15 thousand tonnes of other edible oils. 

     In India, sunflower seed production in kharif (2010-11) was 1.35 lakh tones and the same was 1.20 lakh tonnes in kharif 2011-12. The major producers of sunflower are Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. The total area of sunflower and production in Tamil Nadu during 2008-2009 were 0.14 lakh hectares, 0.18 lakh tonnes respectively and productivity was 1334 kg/ha. Karur, Trichy, Dindigul, Thiruvannamalai and Thoothukudi are the major sunflower producing districts in the state. 

     The Karthigai sown sunflower has started flowing into the market. Farmers have are to take a decision whether to sell the harvested sunflower immediately or store for two to three months in anticipation of higher prices. To facilitate the farmers in taking a better marketing decision, the NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the monthly prices of sunflower seeds that prevailed in Vellakoil Regulated Market for the past 12 years. The results of the analysis revealed that the prices would be around Rs.30-34 kg during April-June, 2012. The possibilities of increase in prices are remote. Hence, farmers are recommended to sell sunflower upon harvest without resorting to storage. They are also advised to sell through Regulated Markets in nearby area to reap better prices. 

For details contact:-
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-2450812


Sell Groundnut upon Harvest (apr 2012)

     Groundnut is one of the major oilseeds crops in the world. Its oil content is more than 40 percent and protein content is 25 percent. India is the second largest producer of groundnut after China. China, India, Senegal, Sudan and Indonesia are the major producers of groundnut in the world. The Solvent Extractors Association of India reported that the import of vegetable oils during February 2012 was 8,75,649 tonnes compared to 5,50,901 tonnes in February 2011. The overall import of vegetable oils during November 2011 to February 2012 is reported at 30,60,903 tonnes compared to 26,93,703 tonnes during November 2010-February 2011 i.e., up by 13.63 percent. Current stock of edible oils as on 1st March 2012 at various ports is estimated at 8,40,000 tonnes and about 6,20,000 tonnes is in pipelines. 

     Total area of oilseeds in India during Rabi 2011-2012 was 90.70 lakh hectares whereas during the same period of previous year it was 97.72 lakh hectares and thus the area reduced by 6.7 per cent at present. Groundnut area during rabi contributed to 9.12 lakh hectares (Rabi 2011-2012) in the country which was 2.3 percent more comparing the previous year. Groundnut is the major oil seed in India. India is placed 2nd in the world groundnut production and consumption list. Gujarat (36 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (20 per cent), Tamil Nadu (11 per cent), Karnataka (8 per cent), Rajasthan (5 per cent) and Maharastra (5 per cent) are the major producers of groundnut in India. 

     The area under groundnut in Tamil Nadu was 3.49 lakh hectares with a production of 3.50 lakh tonnes during Kharif 2011. The major groundnut producing districts are Thiruvannamalai (16.67 per cent), Villupuram (11.61 per cent), Vellore (10.58 per cent), Namakkal (7.15 per cent), Salem (5.31 per cent) and Erode (4.70 per cent). Thaipattam is one of the major sowing seasons for groundnut in Tamil Nadu. The Thai Pattam sown crop is being harvested now. Farmers are interested in knowing whether price will increase in future so that they can store and sell the produce. To help them to take a right decision the NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in TNAU analyzed the past 20 years prices that prevailed in Sevur and Tindivanam Regulated Markets. The econometric analysis and market surveys revealed that during April - May 2012 farmers could get a price of Rs.43-45 / kg of groundnut pod at Regulated market, Sevur in Tirupur district. For groundnut kernels, a price of Rs.55-56 / Kg could be realized by farmers at Tindivanam Regulated market. The relatively higher price for pod in Sevur market is mainly due to the fact that it goes for making groundnut toffees, while the produce at Tindivanam market is mainly meant for oil purpose. There is a likelihood of prices to increase. But the increase could compensate only the cost of storage and storage loss. Hence farmers can sell groundnut upon harvest.

For details contact:-

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural development Studies 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-2450812

Small Onion Prices to Remain Stable  (May 2012)

     Small onion which is an integral part of cooking has now taken the onion farmers to crisis. Because in the same period last year, the price of small onion was Rs. 20 and Thuraiyur seed onion was Rs. 35 per kg. But currently the price of onion is ruling around Rs. 7-11 per kg for the best quality onion and Rs. 9-11 per kg for the seed onion. This happened due to over production and good crop productivity in this season. According to trade sources, the area and production of small onion is more by 30 per cent comparing normal production during this season. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are the three important small onion producing States in India. Karnataka is a major competitor for small onion and the arrivals from Karnataka decide the small onion price in Tamil Nadu. 

     Perambalur district in Tamil Nadu occupies 24 per cent of the area under onion cultivation. The other districts cultivating onion are Tiruchirapalli, Tirupur, Dindigul, Tirunelveli, Namakkal, Erode, Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, and Coimbatore. Among these districts Perambalur, Tiruchirapalli, Tirupur and Dindigul contribute for more than 60 per cent of the onion area and production.

     According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), in Tamil Nadu the area and production of onion in 2010-2011 were 33,800 ha and 3,38,900 tonnes, respectively. More than 70 per cent of this is occupied by small onion. In 2012, as per trade sources production will be better than 2011. Currently onion from Coimbatore and Tirupur districts are arriving to the market and this will continue till September. Nearly 60 per cent of the arrivals are produced using seedlings and the quality of produce is also good. The shelf life of onion produced by cultivation through seedlings is less than that of cultivation through bulb. Karnataka arrivals have come to an end now. Bulb onion for seed purpose are purchased by Karnataka for sowing which will start from May end. Onion arrivals from other districts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will start from August. 

     Last year the exports declined mainly due to increased minimum export price at US$ 475 per tonne. Due to this Myanmar and Philippines became our major competitors for small onion. Minimum export price of onion was lowered to US$ 150 per tonne from February 2012 onwards and this helped to get export orders from Malaysia and Indonesia. For the past two weeks onion is procured for Malaysia and Indonesia by traders and this created stability in onion prices.

     To help the farmers in taking a proper marketing decision, small onion prices that prevailed in Dindigul market for the past 14 years were analysed by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS). The results revealed that the price for the small onion for best quality will be around Rs. 9 to 12 per kg and second best quality will be Rs.7 to 9 from April to July 2012. The export and the domestic seed demand will maintain the prices. The prices are likely to increase in July. But the storability of the produce grown through seedlings is a question mark. Also the storage loss, cost of storage and other incidentals associated with storage will be more or less equal to the price increase. Since storage will not yield higher net prices farmers are recommended to sell small onion upon harvest.
For details contact:-
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural development Studies 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor & Head, 
Department of Vegetable crops,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-6611374, 
0422-6611283

Farmers Advised to Sell Red Gingelly upon Harvest (June 2012)

     Gingelly is an important edible oilseed in India. Gingelly oil is of premium quality than other edible oils and it is used in cooking, pharmaceuticals (Ayurveda treatment) and in temples to light. Gingelly seed is also used in bakery items and in preparation of sweets. 

     Global area under gingelly during last year was around 77.00 lakh hectares and production was around 39.77 lakh tonnes. India, Myanmar, Sudan, China, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Uganda are the major gingelly growing countries which together account for 79 per cent of the total global area. In India, gingelly production during 2010-11 was 7.55 lakh tonnes and it was 7.60 lakh tonnes during 2009-10.

     The major gingelly producing States are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Orissa. The eastern region comprising of West Bengal, Orissa, Assam and Andhra Pradesh mostly produce red and black varieties while white gingelly is grown in Maharastra and other western States. India exported gingelly in the form of natural and hulled seeds around 2.7 lakh tonnes mainly to Korea, Taiwan, Egypt, Germany, China, USA, Turkey and Vietnam during April to October 2011.

     In Tamil Nadu, gingelly crop is usually grown in two seasons, viz., Thaipattam (Jan-Feb) and Adipattam (July-August). In 2009-10, area and production under gingelly were about 0.63 lakh hectares and 0.29 lakh tonnes respectively. Erode, Villupuram, Thanjavur, Karur, Tiruchirapalli, Cuddalore, Thoothukudi and Salem are the major gingelly producing districts in Tamil Nadu. Currently Thai pattam sown irrigated gingelly crop is under harvest and arrivals have started. The peak arrivals are during May, June. According to market sources, the quality of irrigated gingelly is good compared to rainfed gingelly. Nowadays farmers are bringing stone free and dirt free gingelly to markets. Traders survey results revealed that oil millers outsourced gingelly during April, May from Andhra Pradesh, from May 15th to November from West Bengal and during July to September from Karnataka. Oil millers blend gingelly procured from other States with Tamil Nadu product to get good quality oil.

     According to the farm sources, the yield obtained was 350-400 kg per acre in this season. With this, farmers have to take a decision whether to sell gingelly harvested immediately or store for some time to get a better price. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 11 year prices prevailed in Sivagiri Regulated market. Results of the econometric analysis revealed that the price of red gingelly seed for the two months i.e. May, June will be ruling in the range of Rs. 50 to 53 per kg. For the next three months there are remote chances for the prices to increase. Hence farmers are recommended to sell red gingelly upon harvest in the nearby regulated markets.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact:
The Professor and Head
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003,
Phone No: - 0422-2450812


Store and Sell Maize during June, July (June 2012)

     Globally around 630 million tonnes of maize from an area of 169 million hectares is produced. Argentina, Brazil, China, Mexico, India and USA occupy 60 per cent of the world’s maize area and contribute 73 per cent of the production. According to International Grains Council, world maize production is expected to increase by 4 per cent in 2012 as more planting has been done at the global level. Since a good crop is expected from USA and Ukraine, world supply is projected at 1 billion tonnes. Higher feed use increases the demand by 3 per cent and little change in industrial use is expected due to a slowdown in the USA ethanol sector.

     During 2010-11, India produced around 21.28 million tonnes of maize from 8.49 million hectares. Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Madhya Pradesh contribute around 80 per cent of the country’s production. Introduction of hybrids increased the yield of maize in Tamil Nadu and the productivity reached 4.7 tonnes per hectare. 

     Around 11.44 lakh tonnes of maize is produced from 2.4 lakh hectares in Tamil Nadu. Maize is mainly grown in Perambalur, Dindigul, Coimbatore, Salem, Erode, Virudhunagar, Villupuram, Theni, Tiruchirapalli and Tirunelveli Districts. These districts together contribute 90 per cent of the total area and production of maize in Tamil Nadu. 

     In Tamil Nadu maize is mainly grown in Adipattam and Thaipattam of which 70 per cent of the production comes from Adipattam sown crop. This year the farmers increased the area under maize in Thai pattam as advised by DEMIC to go for maize sowing in Thai to get profitable prices. This increased the arrivals of the crop in the market. 

      Under these circumstances maize farmers are enquiring whether to sell the harvested maize immediately or to store the produce to get profitable price. DEMIC analysed the past 15 year maize prices prevailed in Udumalpet market and conducted traders’ survey to guide the farmers in taking a better selling decision. 

     Trade sources reported that the competitiveness of Indian maize compared to other global producers will help to increase the maize exports to 3 million tonnes which is 7 per cent higher than in 2010-11. Vietnam, Srilanka, Malaysia & Taiwan are the major importers of maize from our country. They are procuring the crop for poultry feed. 

     Since Tamil Nadu’s production is not sufficient to meet the demand, poultry firms are procuring the produce from Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Bihar. They procure from Karnataka during September– October, from Andhra Pradesh during March-April and from Bihar during April-July. This year unusually the crop from Bihar is going to Maharashtra, since, regular supplier of maize to Maharashtra ie., Karnataka got affected and the produce from Karnataka is diverted to Tamil Nadu. Bihar arrivals also flow into Tamil Nadu. Increased arrivals from our State, Bihar and Karnataka made the prices to hover around Rs.1150-1180 per quintal during April even though it reached a peak of Rs.1240 during this month. 

     The poultry firms are keeping their three months demand as stock. The traders who also procure the produce in bulk are expecting rise in price. Even though arrivals increased unexpectedly at national and global level, good export demand and increased demand from poultry industry will help the prices not to decline so much or would help to stabilize the price around Rs.1160 per quintal. The analysis revealed that the maize price will hover around 1100-1175 during May and thereafter it is likely to increase upto Rs.1250 per quintal in June, July 2012. Hence farmers are recommended to store the harvested maize in a proper way and sell during June, July for higher prices. 

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003,
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact:
The Professor & Head 
Department of Millets, 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003,
Phone: 0422-2450507

Sell potato immediately on Harvest (June 2012)

     Potato is an important tuber crop which is grown in 150 countries and consumed by more than one billion people throughout the world. World potato production in the year 2010 was 324.18 million tonnes. The States of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar account for more than 80 percent of total production in India. India produced 436 lakh tonnes (last year it was 402 lakh tonnes) of potato from an area of 19.10 lakh hectares in 2011-12 according to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF).

     In Tamil Nadu, potato is grown in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. In 2011-12, potato was cultivated in 4900 hectares in Tamil Nadu (last year it was 4700 hectares) and the production was 1,04,900 tonnes (last year it was 97,100 tonnes). During the lean season (February-April), traders are outsourcing potato from Agra, Hasanpur in Uttar Pradesh, Indore in Madhya Pradesh and Kolar in Karnataka to cater to the needs of Tamil Nadu consumers. Arrivals from other States are hence higher during this time period. 

     Nilgiris Potato is priced based on quality, size, color and shelf-life period. Potatoes are graded by labourers and then sold at Mettupalayam market. It is graded as thala rasi (size of 40 - 60 MM), rasi (20 - 40 MM), podi (10-20 MM) and thallu kilangu (below 10 MM) according to different quality parameters. The yellow skin potatoes are of good quality and black skin potatoes are of not much good quality. Nilgiris potatoes are considered as best quality because of its taste, hardness and higher shelf-life. Hence it fetches higher prices. Other States potatoes are of lower quality i.e. Not hard, less in taste and shorter shelf life and hence fetches lower price. Because of its lower prices other state’s potatoes are used in 80 percent for food and seed purpose as well as 20 percent for chips making. Nilgiris potatoes are used up to 95 percent for food purpose and 5 percent for chips making. 

     High cost of cultivation, labour shortage and huge arrivals from other States at cheap prices made the Nilgiris farmers to shift to other hilly vegetables. Nilgiris potato is sent to Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai, Trichy, Salem and Vellore and also to other States. The arrival of Nilgiris potato is high during the period from June to December. Peak arrival is during August to September. The Nilgiris farmers who have sown Neerbogam potato during February are interested in knowing the price of potato that would prevail during May and June, 2012 after the harvest. 

     NAIP – Domestic and Export Market Intelligence (DEMIC) Cell functioning in the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the 22 years prices of potato that prevailed during 1991-2012 in Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society in Mettupalayam and the results revealed that prices of good quality potato will be around Rs. 14 to Rs. 18 per kg in May, June, 2012. Farmers could receive a price of Rs.20 per kg some times during May 2012. Since in the near future there are remote chances for the prices to increase it is recommended that farmers may sell potato upon harvest without storing. While purchasing potato, consumers could identify it based on its skin colour and hardness as Nilgiris potato or other State potato and they can pay the price accordingly. 

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head
Horticultural Research Station 
Vijayanagaram
Udhagamandalam-643001
Phone: 0423-2442170 

Adipattam Price Forecast (June 2012)

     Adipattam is an important cropping season under rainfed system in Tamil Nadu. South West monsoon determines the productivity of the crops and this monsoon has been forecasted to be normal. Mostly cereals, oil seeds and vegetables are sown in this season. NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has made price analysis and market survey for Maize, Gingelly, Small onion and Groundnut to help farmers in taking sowing decisions for crops based on the prices that might prevail during harvest of the same. 

Maize 
     Heavy arrivals form Bihar to Tamil Nadu during the lean arrival season that is during April – June helped the prices not to increase above Rs.1200 per quintal. Poultry sources reported that this year the quality of maize from Bihar is also equal to our State maize and the moisture percentage is around 12 per cent. The delivery price is Rs.1200 per quintal. Hence the poultry firms procured the next three months requirement and stocked the product for the forthcoming months. 
Karnataka arrivals will enter the market during August end. Till that the price will rule around Rs.1100-1150 per quintal. Government of India increased the Minimum Support Price of Maize from Rs. 980 per quintal to Rs.1175 per quintal for Kharif, 2012-13. Under the circumstances, DEMIC in TNAU analysed the past 18 years price at Udumalpet and conducted traders survey. The econometric analysis also revealed that the price will rule around Rs.1100 –Rs.1150 per quintal during the arrival of adi pattam sown crop that is during October- December, 2012. Good export and domestic demand will help the price to rule around MSP. 

Gingelly 

     The premium oilseed gingelly received good price in the rabi season. Usually quality of the irrigated gingelly is better than kharif sown gingelly. India is the largest producer of gingelly accounting for 30 per cent of the world output. Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, West Bengal, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam are the major gingelly growing States. In Tamil Nadu, Villupuram, Cuddalore, Karur, Erode and Perambalur are the major districts that are contributing to 51 per cent of the State area and 55 per cent of the State production. 

     According to trade sources, 70 per cent of gingelly is cultivated in kharif season. Adipattam(Kharif) sowing will be during July-August and market arrivals are from September- December. Last year kharif production was around 29.20 lakh tonnes and this year the area is expected to increase marginally because of good price received in rabi gingelly (Rs.5500-6200/Qtl). Government of India has raised MSP of sesame from Rs. 3400 per quintal to Rs.4200 (20% increase over last year) per quintal for kharif season 2012-13. Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell analysed 12 years historical prices of Sivagiri Regulated market and the results reveal that the price of red gingelly is expected to be stable and it will be around Rs 5500 to Rs.5800 per quintal during harvest period viz., September to December 2012. 

Small onion 

     Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are the three major small onion producing States in the country. According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation, the area and production of onion in Tamil Nadu in 2010-2011 were 33,800 ha and 3, 38,900 tonnes respectively, wherein over 70 per cent of the area is under small onion. In 2012, as per trade sources area and production will be higher than 2010-11. In the months of January to April the farm gate price of small onion was ranging between Rs.7-12 per kg. Government has suspended the operation of Minimum Export Price on onion for May and June months with an aim to control the falling prices of onion and increase the export orders. Onion is exported to Malysia, Indonesia and Srilanka. Presently (June month) onion is exported only to Srilanka. The export increased the farm gate price of small onion. Presently the farm gate prices of small onion is ranging between Rs.19-22 per kg raised through seeds and that of onion raised through bulb is ranging between Rs. 10-15 per kg. Small onion supply from Tamil Nadu is decreasing and now it is made available from stocks raised through bulbs. Now arrivals from Mysore have started to enter Tamil Nadu and it will continue until July. Farmers in Tamil Nadu are indecisive to sow the onion in July 2012 ie. in Adi pattam which will flow to the market in September – October. Based on the price analysis farm gate price of small onion is expected to be Rs.15 to Rs.18 per kg during harvest period viz., September and October 2012. Based on this price farmers are requested to take their sowing decisions on onion. 

Groundnut 

     India is one of the largest producers of oilseeds in the world. India ranks first in area and seventh in production at global level in oilseeds. Import of vegetable oil is expected to increase to 9.7 million tonnes during 2012-13 in India. The import estimate consists of 7.6 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.1 million tonnes of Soyabean oil, 1 million tonnes of sunflower oil and 10,000 tonnes of other edible oils.
In India Groundnut production in Kharif 2010-11 was 41.00 lakh tonnes and in 2011-12, the kharif production is estimated at 41.75 lakh tonnes as per Solvent Extractors Association estimates. The major States growing groundnut are Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. Gujarat occupies the first position in production (42.51 %), followed by Andhra Pradesh (13.17%), Rajasthan (13.17%), Karnataka (8.38 %), Tamil Nadu (8.38 %) and Maharashtra (4.31 %). In Tamil Nadu, groundnut is cultivated in around 4.89 lakh hectares and about 10.26 lakh tonnes of groundnut is produced with an average yield of 1775 Kg/ha. Major groundnut producing districts of Tamil Nadu are Tiruvannamalai, Villupuram, Vellore, Kancheepuram, Namakkal and Erode. 
Adipattam is one of the major sowing seasons for groundnut in our State. More than 60 % of the rainfed groundnut is grown in this season. The econometric analysis and market survey by DEMIC revealed that farmers could get a price of Rs.46 to 48 per kg of groundnut kernels for oil extraction purpose during harvest period (October - November, 2012). Based on this price, farmers are recommended to go for groundnut sowing in Adipattam. 

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003,
Phone: 0422-2431405

Kadai bogam Potato to Fetch Better Prices (Sept 2012)

     Potato is the world’s number one non-grain food commodity which is grown in 18.65 million hectares with a production of 324.42 million tonnes in 2010. India produced 413 lakh tonnes of potato from an area of 18.10 lakh hectares in 2011-12. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar and Gujarat accounted for more than 80 per cent share in total production in India. According to the statistics given by National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF) the area and production of potato were 2950 hectares and 62,940 tonnes respectively in Tamil Nadu during 2011-12. 

     It is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. In Kadaibogam season it is sown in the months of September and October and harvested from December to January. Before sowing, farmers are eager to know about the prices of Kadaibogam potato in order to take up their sowing decisions. High cost of cultivation, labour shortage and huge arrivals from other States at cheap prices made the Nilgiris farmers to shift to other hilly vegetables. Reduction in planting area coupled with crop damage resulted in higher price of potato in Mettupalayam market. Even though arrivals start during December, the festive demand, discontinued arrivals from Karnataka and export demand will keep the price on the upward side. 

     The NAIP – Domestic Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 22 years (1990-2012) prices of potato that prevailed in Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society (NCMS) functioning in Mettupalayam. The econometric analysis and market surveys revealed that farmers could get a price of Rs.20 to 22 per kg of potato during harvest period (December, 2012 January, 2013). Based on this price, it is recommended to go for potato sowing in kadaibogam season. 

Store and Sell Small onion (Oct 2012)

     Though the main sowing seasons for small onion are Vaigasi and Adi Pattam, nowadays it is cultivated all through the year as it is one of the profitable vegetables. According to trade sources, this year the area under small onion has decreased because of less rain fall. According to National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), area and production of onion in Tamil Nadu were 22,270 hectares (ha) and 3,33,870 tonnes, respectively during 2011-12. Perambalur district in Tamil Nadu occupies 24 per cent of the area under onion. The other districts cultivating onion are Tiruchirapalli, Tiruppur, Dindigul, Tirunelveli, Namakkal, Erode, Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, and Coimbatore. Among these districts Perambalur, Tiruchirapalli, Tiruppur and Dindigul contribute more than 60 per cent of the onion area and production.
Bellary onion cultivation is only 30 per cent and storability of Tamil Nadu grown bellary onion is poor. Presently bellary onion arrivals are from Tirunelveli district and it is exported to Sri Lanka and Philippines. 

     Currently small onion from Tiruppur, Trichy, Coimbatore and Karur districts are arriving to the market. In this 90 per cent of the arrivals are cultivated through bulbs and only 10 per cent is cultivated through seedlings. Onion prices prevailing in Karnataka influence the small onion prices in our state. Arrivals from Karnataka started from July and the arrivals are also very less. Since small onion arrivals from Karnataka may stop during early October, the prices in Tamil Nadu could show an increasing trend. Trade sources revealed that exports will pick up after Diwali festival. Export to Sri Lanka is expected to commence from October onwards. Since bigger size small onions (above 25 mm) are not available in sufficient quantities, Tamil Nadu traders are unable to fulfill their Malaysian export orders. This size of onion could be received only from onion grown through seeds. Now onion sown in Adi Pattam has started arriving to the market. The current average price for onion cultivated through bulbs is Rs.24 per kg. In Purattasi pattam farmers would go for onion cultivation for which currently harvested bulbs will be used. All these are expected to stabilise the prices of small onion.
To help the farmers in taking a proper marketing decision, monthly prices of small onion that prevailed during the last 14 years in Dindigul market were analysed by NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in TNAU. The results revealed that prices of good quality small onion will be around Rs. 2400 to Rs. 2500 per quintal during October, November 2012. Since the prices are expected to increase, farmers are recommended to store and sell small onion in November 2012.

For details contact:-
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural development Studies 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor & Head, 
Department of Vegetable crops,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-6611374, 
0422-6611283


Sell Sunflower Seeds Immediately (Oct 2012)

     Sunflower is raised in two seasons viz., Karthigai pattam (October-November) and Chitrai pattam (April-May) in Tamil Nadu. Marketing activities coincide with March to May and September to October. Rise in edible oil prices and increase in import of edible oils raised queries among sunflower growers whether the Chitirai sown and presently being harvested crop which has started flowing into the market will fetch higher price or vice versa.

     European Union, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, United States, China, India and Turkey are the major producers of sunflower seed in the world. In India, Sunflower seed production in Kharif (2010-11) was 1.35 lakh tonnes and the same was 1.20 lakh tonnes in Kharif 2011-12.The major producers of sunflower in India are Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. The major trading centers for sunflower oil are Mumbai, Chennai and Hydrabad. In Tamil Nadu, sunflower seed production was around 0.18 lakh tonnes from an area of 0.14 lakh hectares (ha) and productivity was 1330 kg/ha. Karur, Thoothukudi, Tiruchirapalli, Dharmapuri, Virudunagar Dindigul, Tirunelveli, Thiruvannamalai and Namakkal are the major districts contributing about 82 per cent of the total sunflower production of the state. 

     The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported that the imports of vegetable oils in India during 2012-13 will increase to 9.7 million tonnes. The import forecast includes 7.6 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.1 million tonnes of soyabean oil, 1 million tonne of sunflower oil and 10,000 tonnes of other edible oils. India imports vegetable oils from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina etc.
To facilitate farmers in taking a better marketing decision about the sale of chitirai sown sunflower which is now arriving to market, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of Tamil Nadu Agricultural University conducted a market survey at Vellakovil Regulated market, the major market centre for sunflower and analyzed the past 11 years price data of sunflower seed prevailed in this market. The econometric analysis confirmed that the price of sunflower seed will be in the range of Rs 40-42 per kg during October, November 2012. Inspite of Deepavali and other festivals the good arrivals and imports will curtail the price rise of sunflower seed and there is no scope for increase in prices for next two to three months. Hence farmers are advised to sell their sunflower seeds immediately without resorting to storage.

For details contact:-
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-2450812.

Puratasipattam Cotton will Fetch Stable Price  (Oct 2012)

     Price of long staple Cotton kapas was around Rs.3800 to Rs.4100 per quintal till May 2012 and it started increasing from June. The main reasons for the increase in prices were decline in cotton sowing in major cotton growing States like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujarat, lesser carryover stock due to record exports this year and delay and deficit monsoon in India and drought in US. The price increased to Rs.5500 per quintal in July 2012.

     Domestic prices are higher than international price and it is 4-5 per cent more expensive than the imported varieties, making imports an attractive option for mills in India. India has exported 11.5 million bales of 170 kg each so far in the 2011-12 season that began in October, depleting stockpiles. In first nine months of the cotton year India had been actively exporting cotton, mainly to China, but its exports have nearly halted from the end of June as African and Brazilian sellers are offering the fibre at lower prices. Indian textile companies are importing cotton, taking advantage of cheaper prices in the international market. Cotton imports may touch 1.5 million bales. Most of the imports are from African countries, Australia and Brazil.

     In the year 2012-13 the global acreage of cotton is expected to decrease by 4 per cent leading to a decline in production by 5 per cent to 257 lakh tonnes in 2012-13 according to Cotton Advisory Board. China accumulated about 42 lakh tonnes, up by 61 per cent from 2010-11. This may affect export in next year. Hence, there are little chances that cotton price may go up in the coming season.

     India has experienced rainfall deficit to the tune of 20%. Also the key cotton growing States viz., Gujarat, Maharashtra and certain areas of Karnataka have been facing dry conditions. According to USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) estimates, production will be 30 million bales (34.25 million bales in 2011-12) in India.

     Tamil Nadu, being the major consumer of cotton (47%) with nearly 2000 mills, not even produces five lakh bales. In 2011-12, the area under cotton was 1.22 lakh hectares. Puratasipattam (September-October) is a special season for cotton in Tamil Nadu and MCU 5, MCU 7, Suvin and Bt varieties are cultivated mostly in this season. To facilitate farmers to take up sowing decisions, NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed cotton prices of Konganapuram Cooperative Marketing Society and it is informed that prices of cotton (long staple) will be around Rs. 4200-4700 per quintal in January, February 2013 during harvest of cotton sown in Puratasipattam. Abnormal weather parameters that affect production at national and international level as well as the changes in government cotton policy may affect the prices forecasted. Farmers are advised to take up sowing with varieties suitable for the Puratasipattam taking into account the above prices.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Professor and Head
Department of Cotton
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-2456297 

Farmers recommended to store Maize up to December or to sell immediately  (Oct 2012)

     According to United States Department of Agriculture, the global maize production in the year 2012-13 is estimated to be around 940.8 million tonnes which is 7.5 per cent higher than the previous year (2011-12). In the United States of America, maize production is forecasted to rise by a massive 20 per cent in 2012–13 to 376 million tonnes, recovering from the decline in 2011–12 brought about by adverse seasonal conditions. The global demand for maize in the ethanol sector is strong enough to support the increased production.

     United States of America, China, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and India together account for 75 per cent of the world maize production. USA is the leading producer of Maize with 40 per cent of the global production and India contributes 3 percent of global production. The US is the largest exporter of maize while India contributes about 2 percent of global trade. During 2011-12, India exported around 4 million tonnes of maize. High global maize prices and weakened Indian rupee have helped India’s maize exports in 2011-12 and the same condition may also prevail in the current year. 

     In India around 60 per cent of the maize is utilized in feed sector, primarily for poultry feed. Around 20 per cent of the maize is used in the starch industry. The demand for maize in poultry sector is increasing continuously over the years. 

     India produced 21.6 million tonnes of maize from an area of 8.67 million hectares in 2011-12. Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh together contribute 60 per cent of area and 70 per cent of maize production in India. Karnataka produces 4.1 million tonnes of maize from 1.3 million hectares in the year 2011-12. Tamil Nadu attained fourth position in Indian maize production as against seventh a year before, because of the highest productivity of 5176.4 kg/ha and larger cultivation. 

     In India maize is grown in two major seasons ie., in kharif and rabi. Kharif maize production contributes to 75 per cent of the total production. The Agriculture Department, Government of India reported that the estimated kharif production in the year 2012 will be around 14.89 million tonnes which is 8.19 per cent lesser than the previous year. 

     Trade sources reported that this year, the late monsoon in the kharif season has hindered the sowing of maize in almost in all the major growing States. Tamil Nadu was affected seriously because of the late monsoon and only 30 per cent of sowing was done according to them. The arrivals will be expected in the mid October. Now the price is ruling around Rs.1400-1450 per quintal. 

     Traders are expecting that Karnataka arrivals will start from this month end and the arrivals will make the price to reduce by Rs.50-100 per quintal in November. Even though the global production is expected to increase, Indian maize production is expected to be around 14.89 million tonnes which is 8 per cent lesser than the previous year. Hence the prices are expected to rule on the higher side because of strong demand from feed industry and export demand. 
The kharif maize produced in all the major States started flowing in to the market and now the farmers are interested to know whether the harvested produce could be sold immediately or stored for some time. To answer their queries and to guide them in taking a right decision, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the monthly prices that prevailed in Udumalpet market for the past fifteen years. Econometric analysis confirmed that the price will rule around Rs.1350 per quintal till October end. In November, 2012 the prices are expected to rule around Rs.1300 per quintal and after December, 2012 the prices are expected to increase to Rs.1400 per quintal and the best quality will fetch a higher price than this. 

     The storage cost for maize is Rs.1.50 per 100 per kg per month in regulated markets. The price rise will cover both the storage cost and interest put together. Hence farmers, who can store the produce, are recommended to store up to December, 2012 and sell the same. If not possible the produce could be sold immediately upon harvest since the prices in November are expected to come down. 

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003,
Phone: 0422-2431405
For Technical Details please contact:
The Professor & Head 
Department of Millets, 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003,
Phone: 0422-2450507

Price forecast for Karthigaipattam Crops (Dec 2012)

     In Tamil Nadu, Bengal gram (Chana), Coriander and Cumbu are the three important food crops grown in Karthigai pattam season (November sowing). To enable farmers to take sowing decisions for getting better prices, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the prices of the above crops and suggests the following:

Bengal gram

     Bengal gram is an important pulse crop as its seeds are high in protein and is used as an edible seed for making flour. The world’s total production of Bengal gram is around 10.46 million tonnes and is grown over 11.58 million hectares. India is the largest producer of this pulse contributing around 67.50 % of the world’s total production. Madhya Pradesh is the largest Gram producing state contributing about 39% of the total Chana production followed by Maharastra (14%), Rajasthan (11%), Andhra Pradesh (11%) and Uttar Pradesh (10%). India also exports some of its Bengal gram produce to USA, UK, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Sri-lanka and Malaysia. Bengal gram is sown during the months of September to November in India. In Tamil Nadu, it is cultivated in about 7430 hectares with a production of nearly 4542 tonnes and it is mainly cultivated in Coimbatore and Tirupur district. Udumalpet market is one of the major markets for Bengal gram and price data for last 10 years were collected and analyzed. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) confirms that bengal gram price will be around Rs.42-45 per Kg during March, April 2013.ie, in harvesting season. The crop grown in Coimbatore and Tirupur district is mainly used for snack purposes and the price will be higher than that used for flour purpose. Based on this farmers are advised to take their decision for sowing Bengal gram. 

Coriander
     Coriander (Dhania) is an important spice crop. The coriander plant yields both fresh leaves and spice seed, which are used primarily for culinary purposes. Coriander leaves are excellent source of Vitamin A, C and few minerals (calcium and iron) and protein also. Seeds are also rich in protein, minerals and carbohydrates. The major global producers are India, Morocco, Canada, Romania, Russia and Ukraine. India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Morocco, Iran and China are the major exporters. Middle East, South-East Asia, USA, UK, Germany etc., are the major importers.

     Coriander is mainly a Rabi crop in India and sowing starts during the middle of November. In India, area and production of coriander during 2010-11 was 5.3 lakhs hectares and 4.82 lakhs tonnes respectively and productivity was 0.90 tonnes/ hectares. In India, coriander is cultivated mainly in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. 
In Tamil Nadu, area and production of coriander during 2009-10 were 0.16 lakhs hectares and 0.06 lakhs tonnes respectively. Major coriander growing districts are Thoothukudi, Virudhunagar, Ramanathapuram, Tirippur, Cuddalore and Trichy. Nearly 86 per cent of the total coriander area is grown as rainfed crop in the State. The Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) econometrically analyzed the monthly data of coriander prices that prevailed in the last 11 years in Virudhunagar Regulated market. The price of coriander seed during March, April 2013, i.e., during harvest, is estimated to be Rs.4600-4800 per quintal. Based on this price, farmers are advised to take their decision for sowing coriander. 

Cumbu

     Cumbu (Pearl millet) is the most widely grown millet. It is grown in Africa and the Indian sub continent since prehistoric times. India is the largest producer of pearl millet. It is also one of the most drought resistant crops among cereals and millets. It is also used as poultry feed and green fodder for cattle. 

     In India, during 2011-12, cumbu was cultivated in 8.39 million hectares with a production of 9.15 million tonnes and productivity, of 1091 kg /hectare. Cumbu is cultivated mostly in Oct-Dec. Mainly it is sown during October, November based on the rainfall occurrence. Also, during summer it is grown in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Punjab and Gujarat as an irrigated crop. In Tamil Nadu, it is grown in an area of about 0.54 lakh hectares with a production of 0.82 lakh tonnes and productivity of 1519 kg per hectare. The major growing districts in Tamil Nadu are Thoothukudi, Villupuram, Madurai, Theni, Virudhunagar, Cuddalore and Dindigul.
This year, the area and production of cumbu is likely to see a downtrend as per trade sources. As per the econometric analysis done by Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC), on the last 16 years cumbu prices of Kovilpatti market, the price of cumbu during March, April 2013, i.e., during harvest of karthigai sown crop would revolve around Rs. 1100-1200 per quintal. Based on this price farmers are advised to take their decision for sowing cumbu. 

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC)
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details contact:
1. Dr.A.R.Muthiah, 
Professor and Head,
Department of Pulses,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-2450498
Mobile: 9360818199

2. Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University 
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-6611284.

3. Professor and Head,
Department of Millets
Center for Plant Breeding and genetics 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-2450507

Kadaibogam Potato may be Sold upon Harvest (Dec 2012)

     Potato is an important tuber crop which is grown in 150 countries and consumed by more than one billion people throughout the world. World potato production in the year 2010 was 324.42 million tonnes. India produced 415 lakh tonnes of potato from an area of 18.87 lakh hectares in 2011-12. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Bihar and Gujarat accounted for more than 80 per cent share in total production in India. Fresh potatoes are exported to Sri Lanka, UAE, Mauritius, Nepal, Singapore, Maldives and Kuwait from India. Trade sources reveal that exports will pick up during Pongal festival. So far, India has exported about 1,00,811 tonnes of potato in 2011-2012 which is 36 per cent lesser than that of 2010-11.

     According to the statistics given by National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF) the area and production of potato were 2950 hectares and 62,940 tonnes respectively in Tamil Nadu during 2011-12. Potato is a major vegetable widely consumed throughout Tamil Nadu whereas, it is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. High cost of cultivation, labour shortage and huge arrivals from other States at cheap prices made the Nilgiris farmers to shift to other hilly vegetables. Nilgiris potato is sent to Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai, Trichy, Salem and Vellore and also Kerala. The Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society (NCMS), Mettupalayam is one of the major trading centres in India. At the auction centre at Mettupalayam, a bag of potato containing 45 kg is currently auctioned in the price range of Rs 700 to Rs 950. Arrivals are coming from Hasan and Kolar (Karnataka) also in large quantities to this market centre.

     Potato farmers in Tamil Nadu have raised queries whether the Kadaibogam potato sown in September-October, 2012 and being harvested from November onwards will fetch higher prices or not; and whether to sell immediately or store for better prices. To answer these queries, the NAIP – Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the past 22 years prices that prevailed at Nilgiris Cooperative Marketing Society (NCMS), Mettupalayam. As per the results of the analysis the prices of potato will hover around Rs.750 to 1000 per bag of 45 kg in November, 2012 to January, 2013. Best quality tubers will get the maximum prices. Since there are little chances for the prices to increase for the next three months, farmers are recommended to sell potato upon harvest. 

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC)
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Dr.N.Selvaraj. 
Professor and Head.
Horticultural Research Station.
Vijayanagaram.
Udhagamandalam-643001.
Phone: 0423-2442170.
Cell: 94430 52219.

Sell Coconut upon Harvest (Dec 2012)

     Coconut is grown on an average in 1.90 million hectares in India with an average annual production of 10.84 million tonnes. Coconut is used in our country as a source of food, drink, fibre fuel, etc. Indonesia, Philippines and India, are the major producers of coconut in the World. Brazil, Sri Lanka and Thailand are the other producers. Kerala is the main coconut producing state with a contribution of 36.89 % followed by Tamil Nadu (34.11%) and Karnataka (13.83 %) to country’s total production. In Tamil Nadu coconut is grown in Coimbatore, Thanjavur, Dindigul, Kanniyakumari, Vellore, Erode, Theni, Tirunelveli, Krishnagiri, Salem and Madurai districts. In 2010-11, India exported coconut products of 87948 tonnes valued at 27015 lakh rupees.

     Prices of entire coconut-based products are dictated by the price of coconut oil. Coconut oil prices are directly influenced by import quantity of palm oil. In the market year 2012, India imported 7.7 million tonnes of palm oil which is 5.48 per cent higher than the same period last year. 

     Coconut is marketed on weight and number basis. In Tamil Nadu, Pollachi coconut fetches premium price due to its better quality and higher oil content. Demand for tender coconut is also in increasing trend especially in cities like Coimbatore, Madurai, Trichy and Chennai. 

     The dip in prices has been attributed to a variety of reasons like dip in demand for coconut oil. During 2012 Coconut oil consumption has declined to 4.45 lakh tonnes from 4.51 lakh tonnes in 2008. Shifting from coconut oil to other cheaper edible oils by soap manufacturing companies is also one of the major reasons for decline in coconut oil prices. Lower prices of other edible oils particularly palm oil have also an impact on the coconut oil market. Demand for palm oil has increased from 6.23 million tonnes in 2008 to 7.95 million tonnes in 2012, an increase of 27.61 percent. The price of palm oil has declined to Rs.40.67/kg in October 2012, from Rs.52.58 / kg in January 2012, a decline of 28.52 percent at international market. There is a good arrival of coconut from Tamil Nadu due to reasonably good stock.

     Moreover in major coconut producing country, viz., Philippines coconut oil exports rose by 35% in October 2012 according to the United Coconut Associations of the Philippines, Inc. (UCAP). Philippines shipped out 94,880 metric tons (MT) of coconut oil in October from 70,303 tonnes in the same month last year, reports said. From January to October 2012, coconut oil exports totaled 7,41,256 tonnes, increasing by 5.1% from 7,05,214 tonnes last year from Philippines. Supply increased because of higher harvest. World Bank data showed that coconut oil averaged $898 per metric ton in October 2012 compared to $1,208 last year. 

     In T.N. the domestic prices of copra currently is ruling below the MSP (Rs.51 per kg) level. Coconut Farmers in Tamil Nadu raised queries whether the harvested coconut price will increase in the forthcoming months or not and whether to sell immediately or store the nuts harvested. Hence to facilitate the farmers in taking a better decision, NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed the past 10 year prices prevailed in Pollachi market and also conducted trader’s surveys. DEMIC analysis confirmed that the price will rule around Rs.4.5 to 5.5 per nut at farm level during December 2012 to Feb 2013. There is no scope for increase in prices. Hence farmers are advised to sell the harvested nuts immediately without resorting to storage. 

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone - 0422-2431405.

For Technical Details please contact
Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, 
Coimbatore-641003.
Phone - 0422-6611284. 


Sunflower to Fetch Rs.33-36 per kg. on harvest (Dec2012)

     Sunflower is one of the superior edible vegetable oil seeds consumed throughout the globe. Total world production of sunflower seeds in 2011-2012 may amount to approximately 39.15 million tonnes (2010-2011: 35.4 million tonnes). Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, China, Turkey, United States, Spain and India are the major producers of sunflower seeds globally.

     Sunflower seed production in Rabi (2010-11) was 5.20 lakh tonnes and the same was 5.00 lakh tonnes in rabi 2011-12.The major producers of sunflower in India are Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. In Tamil Nadu during (2009-10) sunflower seed production was around 0.18 lakh tonnes from an area of 0.14 lakh hectares (ha) and productivity was 1330 kg/ha. Karur, Thoothukudi, Tiruchirapalli, Dharmapuri, Virudunagar Dindigul, Tirunelveli, Thiruvannamalai and Namakkal are the major districts contributing about 82 per cent of the total sunflower production of the state. The major growing seasons of sunflower in Tamil Nadu are thaipattam (January -February) and Chitrai pattam (April-May) and to a certain extent the Karthigai pattam. In December the Karthigai pattam crop is normally sown.

     According to the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA), The total vegetable oil imports in October were 1,036,107 tonnes, up from 993,912 tonnes in the previous month. The import forecast includes 7.88 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.20 million tonnes of soybean oil and 1 million tonnes of sunflower oil during 2012-13 oil year and India imports vegetable oils from Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina etc.

     To facilitate the farmers in taking a better sowing decision the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the monthly prices of sunflower that prevailed in Vellakoil Regulated Market for the past 12 years. The results of the analysis revealed that the prices would be around Rs33-36 kg during March –April 2013. Based on this price, farmers are advised to take their decision for sowing Sunflower. 

For details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell 
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies 
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone: 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact:
Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone No: 0422-2450812.

Neerbogam Potato to Fetch Better Prices (Feb 2013)

     Potato is the world’s number one non-grain food commodity, which occupied 19.24 million hectares with a production of 374.38 million tonnes during 2011. India produced 415.65 lakh tonnes of potato from an area of 18.87 lakh hectares during 2011-12. According to the statistics given by National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF) the area and production of potato were 2950 hectares and 62,940 tonnes, respectively in Tamil Nadu during 2011-12. Area and production of potato in the State has decreased by 40 per cent and 35 per cent respectively during 2011-12 compared to last year. It is grown only in the hilly regions of Dindigul, Nilgiris, Krishnagiri and Erode districts. In Neerbogam season (Irrigated) it is sown in February and harvested during May, June. Before sowing, farmers are eager to know about the prices of Neerbogam potato in order to take up their sowing decisions.

     The NAIP-DEMIC functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University had analysed the prices that prevailed in Nilgiris Co-operative Marketing Society, Mettupalayam in the last 22 years. The results of the analysis revealed that farmers would be in a position to get a price of Rs.18 to 20 per Kg of potato in May, June 2013 when the Neerbogam potato comes to harvest. Arrivals from other States are limited during this period and Nilgiris potatoes always fetch a premium for its better quality. Based on this expected price, farmers are recommended to go for sowing potato in Neerbogam.


For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC),
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Dr.N.Selvaraj,
Professor and Head,
Horticultural Research Station,
Vijayanagaram,
Udhagamandalam-643001.
Phone: 0423-2442170.
Cell: 94430 52219.

Masipattam Sown Cotton Price will be Stable (Feb 2013)

     In the last (2011-12) and current cotton year (Oct-Nov), prices are not favorable to cotton farmers. It was around Rs 3800 to Rs.4200 per quintal for the past 18 months. Higher price (Rs.6400/Quintal) in 2010-11 encouraged cotton production in India. Inspite of huge exports (128.81 lakh bales) from India in 2011-12, the price didn’t rise due to higher stock position. China has been the largest buyer of Indian cotton and bought more than 70% of the India’s exports in 2011-12. India exported around 85 to 90 lakh bales to China during 2011-12. This year, China’s huge cotton inventory (50% of global) reduced export opportunities. India's cotton exports as on today is 57 lakh bales.

     Government of India estimated that the area under cotton during 2012-13 will be marginally lower by around 5 per cent at 117.73 lakh hectares compared to 121.8 lakh hectares last year. Most of the decline in area (29.62 l.ha to 23.63 l.ha) and production (120 lakh bales to 85 lakh bales) in Gujarat is made up by higher yields in rest of India and higher area in Andhra Pradesh. The Cotton Advisory Board has estimated a crop size of 330 lakh bales and consumption of 234 lakh bales for 2012-13. To protect cotton farmers, Government has increased minimum support price of cotton price to Rs.3900 /Qtl from Rs.3300 / Qtl for long staple cotton.

     Tamil Nadu, being the major consumer of cotton in India (47%) produces five lakh bales from 1.2 lakh hectares. Masipattam (Feb-March) is a special season for cotton in Tamil Nadu and MCU 5, MCU 7, Surabhi, Suvin and Bt varieties are mostly cultivated in this season under cent percent irrigation. To facilitate farmers to take up sowing decisions, NAIP –Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed cotton prices that prevailed in Konganapuram Cooperative Marketing Society and it is informed that prices of cotton (long staple) will be around Rs.4200-4500 per quintal in July - August, 2013, during harvest of cotton to be sown in Masipattam. Increase in export orders, if any, from China, Bangladesh and Pakistan may bring positive changes in prices; Otherwise the price will be stable. Hence farmers are advised to take up sowing with varieties suitable for the Masipattam taking into account the above prices.

For further details contact:
Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact
Professor and Head,
Department of Cotton,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641003.
Phone - 0422-2456297

Sell Sunflower upon Harvest (March 2013)

     Sunflower is one of the major oilseeds containing 35-50% of oil and 17-25% of protein. High fibre, low protein and high wax content are the major constraints in obtaining better yield of oil. Total world production of sunflower seeds in 2012-2013 may amount to approximately 36.36 million tonnes (40.29 million tonnes in 2011-2012). Ukraine, Russia, Argentina, China and Turkey are the major producers of sunflower seeds globally.

     In India, sunflower seed production in kharif (2012-13) was 1.50 lakh tonnes and the same was 1.20 lakh tonnes in kharif 2011-12. The major producers of sunflower are Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. The total area and production of sunflower in Tamil Nadu during 2011-2012 were around 20,000 hectares and 30,000 tonnes respectively and productivity was 1742 kg/ha. Karur, Tiruchirapalli, Thoothukudi, Dharmapuri, Virudhunagar, Dindigul, Tirunelveli, Thiruvannamalai and Namakkal are the major sunflower producing districts in the state.

     The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported that the import of vegetable oils in India during 2012-13 will increase to 9.7 million tonnes. The import forecast includes 7.6 million tonnes of palm oil, 1.1 million tonnes of soyabean oil, 1 million tonne of sunflower oil and 10,000 tonnes of other edible oils. India imports vegetable oils from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, etc.

     The Karthigai sown sunflower has started arriving to the market. Farmers are to take a decision whether to sell the harvested sunflower immediately or store for two to three months in anticipation of higher prices. To facilitate the farmers in taking a better marketing decision, the NAIP- Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) functioning in Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analysed the monthly prices of sunflower seeds that prevailed in Vellakoil Regulated Market for the past 12 years. The results of the analysis revealed that the prices would be around Rs.36-38 per kg during April-June, 2013. Because of less rainfall, this season sowing reduced and less arrivals will lead to the above price. The possibilities for increase in price is very limited. Hence, farmers are recommended to sell sunflower upon harvest without resorting to storage. They are also advised to sell through Regulated Markets in nearby area to reap better prices.

For details contact:-

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies ,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore - 641 003.
Phone - 0422 - 2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head,
Department of Oil Seeds,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone No: - 0422-2450812.

Red Chilli to Fetch Rs.62-65 per Kg (March 2013)

     India is the largest producer, consumer and exporter of chilli, which contributes to about 40% of total world production. Next to India, China is the major producer of chilli in the world. In India, chillies are grown in almost all the states. Andhra Pradesh is the largest producer of chilli in India contributing to about 44 % to the total production, followed by Karnataka (12%), West Bengal (8%), Madhya Pradesh (7%), Maharashtra (4%) and Tamil Nadu (2%). According to traders survey, in the current year, the area under chilli has reduced in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and the production is likely to fall by 40 per cent comparing last year. Further in Maharastra and Madhya Pradesh also the production has declined. The season in Maharastra and Madhya Pradesh has ended in February.

     The export target of chilli from India during 2012-13 was 2.40 lakh tonnes. About 10-15% of total domestic production is meant for exports with domestic consumption of 85-90%. India exports chilli in various processed forms like chilli powder, dried chillies, chilly pickles, chilli paste, flaked chilli, etc., and it is mainly exported to Sri Lanka, USA, Nepal, Mexico, Malaysia, Bangladesh, UAE, Indonesia and China.

     During 2011-12, Tamil Nadu produced 30298 tonnes of chillies from 58603 hectares. Tamil Nadu produces 58 per cent of the chillies under rainfed condition. Ramanathapuram (samba), Thoothukudi (mundu), Sivagangai (samba), Virudhunagar (samba), Tirunelveli (samba) and Sankarankovil (samba and mundu) are the major producers of chillies in the State. In Tamil Nadu, during October-November chillies are raised in nursery or directly sown and harvested during March. Peak arrivals flow during April,May.

     Chillies produced in Tamil Nadu will hit markets in Kovilpatti, Sathur, Sankarankoil, Rajapalayam, Kamuthi, Muthukulathur and Virudhunagar markets from second fortnight of March. It is preferable to store dried chilli in cold storage to retain colour. Last year farmers received Rs.40-45 per kg and compared to last year the price of red chillies increased this year.

     Farmers are interested to know whether the prices will increase in the coming months or remain stagnant. To help them, the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore analysed the price of red chillies. The results showed that farmers could get a price of Rs.62-65 per Kg during April –May 2013. Currently the exports orders are very limited. If fresh orders are received for export purpose, then the prices are likely to increase.

     Since prices are not likely to increase in the near future, farmers are recommended to sell red chillies without going for storage.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone: 0422-2431405.

For Technical Details contact:
Professor and Head,
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641003
Phone: 0422-6611284.

Turmeric Prices will be Stable from April to June (April 2013)

     Turmeric, the yellow spice had witnessed a peak price of Rs.17,000 per quintal in November 2010 and started decline in prices to Rs.4600 in September 2011. For the past two months, the turmeric price is in uptrend due to low stocks and production.

     According to trade sources, 37 lakh bags (80kg) are in stock in India while in Tamil Nadu alone it is reported to be around 14-17 lakh bags. As per trade sources, area under turmeric reduced by about 20 % in 2012-13 in India and in Andhra Pradesh, which stands first in turmeric production, the area has come down to 49,349 ha in 2012-13 from 66,000 ha in 2011-2012. But the yield is good compared to Tamil Nadu. In Tamil Nadu, it declined by around 40 per cent. In Erode district alone which is the major cultivator of turmeric, the area got reduced to 6318 ha in 2012-13 comparing 12,664 ha in 2011-12. National level production is expected to be 45-50 lakh bags.

     Currently there is less arrivals in the market compared to last year. Also turmeric from Orissa, West Bengal are available in the market this year but the quality is not matching with Erode turmeric. Also one variety known as minisalem is arriving to Tamil Nadu especially from Maharastra at the price equivalent to Erode varieties. The quality characters are similar to Salem variety.

     According to Spices Board sources, turmeric export in 2011-12 was estimated at 79,500 tonnes (49,250 tonnes in 2010-11) valuing Rs.734.34 crores (Rs.702.85 crores in 2010-11). In spite of increased export and reduced area under cultivation, due to higher stock position the price is not increasing. Farmers, traders and exporters are keen to know whether this price will sustain or will there be an increase or decrease in future? This is more crucial to take their storage / sales decisions.

     To help the farmers and other stakeholders in turmeric, the NAIP-Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell functioning in Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, (CARDS) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore analysed the monthly prices of turmeric that prevailed in Erode Regulated Market for the past more than 15 years. The Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre functioning in S.V Agricultural College, Tirupathi analysed the prices of turmeric that prevailed in Nizamabad market during last 15 years. The results of the analysis indicated that the prices will be moving around Rs.7500 - Rs.8500 per quintal till May, June 2013 and then the price movement will be based on the monsoon predictions. Hence farmers are requested to take their selling / storage decisions accordingly.

For Marketing details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell,
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS),
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore-641 003.
Phone: 0422-2431405

Coconut prices to remain stable (April 2013)

     In India, coconut was grown in a total area of around 2.13 million hectares with a production of 15.35 million tonnes of nuts. India’s production increased by 2.72 % during 2012-13 compared to previous year as per the estimates of Government of India. Tamil Nadu accounts for around 21.81 per cent of area and 31.02 per cent of production according to First Advance Estimate of Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

     In Tamil Nadu, in Pollachi market, the price rose to an all-time high of Rs.13 per kg of coconut during 2011. It has eased to Rs.7 per kg of coconut in March 2013. Market experts do not expect an upward trend in the price due to the seasonal increase in production as peak arrivals start in summer. Going by the present trends and prevailing market sentiments traders are of the opinion that there will not be an immediate spurt in coconut price.

     In this connection, Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell, Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University analyzed market prices of coconut that prevailed in Pollachi Market. Based on the results of the analysis it is forecasted that farm price of coconut would be ruling between Rs.4.5 to Rs.6.5 per nut from April to June 2013 depending on the size. The above forecast pertains to Pollachi market which is a high priced market. In other markets the farm price will be lower than the above one.

     There are limited chances for the price to increase. Hence it is recommended that farmers can go for sale of coconut upon harvest without resorting to storage. The nuts weighing 600 g and above will fetch higher price. One quintal contains on an average 150 nuts.

For further details contact:

Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell
Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641 003
Phone - 0422-2431405

For Technical Details please contact

Professor and Head
Department of Spices & Plantation Crops
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
Coimbatore-641003
Phone - 0422-6611284